Sunday February 13 2022 Forecast (8:16AM)

191 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

First, a warning: Yesterday’s melt-water, where it did not dry, has frozen back over, and is covered with new snow, so use extreme caution if walking or driving today! A two-part snow event is underway that will not be completely done until Monday morning. First, moisture moving over the boundary of a front that went by last night, putting an end to our brief warm spell, is bumping into much colder air, enhanced by a developing wave of low pressure, and creating daytime snow for the WHW forecast area. Initially this band of snow is sparing Cape Cod but it will move in there soon as well. This will be a fluffy snow for most except a little wetter for Cape Cod where the temperatures are a little less cold than they are elsewhere. As the low pressure wave passes by and its snow starts to depart, the combination of upper level energy and lower level air flow off the ocean will crank up the ocean-effect snow machine this evening and tonight especially south of Boston, focusing on the South Shore of MA, before this shifts offshore Monday morning. A light to moderate snowfall for the region will be the result, with a few heavier amounts when you add it all up for the South Shore. The ocean-effect portion of the snow event will be fluffy for all areas. Dry/cold weather will overtake the region for the remainder of Monday through early Wednesday, except for a few light snow showers possible on Tuesday as an upper level disturbances crosses the region. A significant temperature moderation is due by the middle of the week and we will be quite mild, comparable to yesterday, by the time we get to Thursday, as a strong low pressure area moves through the Great Lakes and drags its cold front toward us, increasing the chance of rainfall by later Thursday as well.

TODAY: Overcast with periods of snow. Temperatures 25-30 northwest of Boston and 30-35 elsewhere to start out, falling slowly during the day. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of snow, especially east of I-95 and heaviest MA South Shore. Snow accumulation for the event 1-3 inches southern NH and north central MA, 3-6 inches elsewhere except 6-8 inches tip of Cape Ann and MA South Shore with 8-12 inch localized amounts possible. Lows 18-25. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds and snow showers MA South Shore to Cape Cod, then clearing. Sunny elsewhere. Highs 23-30. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 6-13. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42 evening then slowly warming. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with rain showers afternoon. Highs 55-62, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Cold air returns February 18, rain showers may end as snow showers then dry. Dry, chilly February 19. Moderating temperatures thereafter with additional unsettled weather possible.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats heading through late month with more up-and-down temperatures.

191 thoughts on “Sunday February 13 2022 Forecast (8:16AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    Just drove to Natick. The 2/128 ramps are questionable, and quite a few people are driving faster than I want to. Natick has slick spots too. Be safe, everyone.

    1. I’ll never understand why so many people cannot slow down in adverse driving conditions. I never have understood it and I never will.

      Also, the prime offenders these days seem to drive pick up trucks. Not sure why that is, but I experience it constantly.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    WOW! You laid out 6-12 for South Shore. That is an impressive number for you!

    Nice job with the discussion.

    I am impressed with phase 1 already. Snow is more intense
    than I anticipated for sure. Boston will be on the edge of
    the snow actually stopping for awhile. We shall see.
    Fairly long duration event.

    I think SSK may be in for a shock. 🙂

    1. When you combine the daytime (which despite the surface temp will have a fluff factor there – not as much Cape Cod) with the nighttime stuff which will have even more fluff factor, I could see a max accumulation of 10 to 12 there. It would be isolated, but that’s why I included it in the range and made the range 6-12 instead of 6-8 or 6-10. Totally possible. These systems almost always end up producing a little more than it initially “looks like”. First, the upper air set-up combined with lower level forcing (frontal boundary) said more snow on the back side than the models were indicating. We have that now. And the guidance almost always underestimates O.E.S. in a good set-up, but a model like the FV3 is more geared toward this type of event and was the first to pick up on the higher potentials for the South Shore.

      1. As did you. You initially said that the models were not picking up on the snow behind the front and well to the NW of
        the surface low.

        Fun little system! Thanks for all you do.

    2. lol so we are in this 6-12 for real I guess my hunch was wrong & as I say all the time you are all the experts not I . Hoping to get my wife home today who
      Has been hospitalized in Boston since Wednesday getting her gallbladder surgically removed . Go Cincinnati!!!

        1. Thanks yes the last two days she’s been in pain but sounded good this morning . She will be in good hands when she gets home .

        1. She’s coming home I’m waiting for the nurse to tell me when to come home . I’ve got the fireplace all ready to go when we get home for the storm with no work or school in the am

    1. Note how yesterday’s “high end” map is now basically the expected map. Am I surprised? NOPE.

  4. My repost. Similar to Jean’s.

    Snow now more moderate in Swampscott. Grass and my balcony are coated. Side streets also coated. Drove on 128 earlier and it is SLICK. Drivers going way too fast!

    1. I’m about to be out on the road for a little while. We’ll see how they are around here. The main road I live next to is just wet for the moment, but that is a combination of yesterday’s mild air, direct sun on that road for many hours, and pre-treatment last night. We’ll have our “heaviest” snow in the NW ‘burbs during the day today so it won’t get that bad. Tonight, the O.E.S. snow areas will have the worst of the road conditions.

  8. I didn’t note it above (maybe I’ll edit it) … tip of Cape Ann could be over 6 inches for a total too.

    1. There, I edited / reworded it: “Snow accumulation for the event 1-3 inches southern NH and north central MA, 3-6 inches elsewhere except 6-8 inches tip of Cape Ann and MA South Shore with 8-12 inch localized amounts possible.” That feels better, especially with the 8-12 as an exception, not the rule, down there. I think anyway. 😉

      1. ok, I can live with that. Still, a nice little event when ot was looking like a coating to an inch.

        Watched Sarah on ch 4 last night.
        she had Boston in 1-3. I told me wife too low, should be 3-5 or even 3-6. She thought I didn’t know what I was talking about.

  9. Forecasts from around the dial: https://ibb.co/XJ90jHY

    Unrelated: why does it say the blog is “not secure”? Mobile browser on ios puts a red banner at the top and bottom of the blog because of it. Like the security certificate expired.

  10. From Mark Rosenthal last evening.

    I think we get a moderate snowstorm in Boston….Starting early tomorrow morning and not really ending until late tomorrow night. My early thoughts are 3-6″+ form Boston to Worcester and 4-8″+ from Plymouth to Cape Cod. Bitter cold to follow late tomorrow night and Monday.

  13. 30 here with light snow (not that heavier intensity of earlier).
    BUT, it is still snowing. Looks like a solid 2 inches here, perhaps a little more, but not less.

  14. Rather than posting a bunch of 12Z (7AM) snow maps from models which wouldn’t even show what had fallen by initialization time, I’ll summarize.

    NAMs, RAP, HRRR, and WRF-F3, factoring in at least an inch
    fell by 7AM, all have totals in the 4-8 inch range.

    At this point I am just curious to see IF the snow ever stops here or keeps going all day.

    I see some yellows showing on radar again in Eastern CT. Likely destined for South SHore of MA. Hope it comes to Boston, but probably not.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?num=40&type=N0Q&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=1&scale=0.28695652173913044&transx=-20.909090909090764&transy=135.90909090909088&severe=0&smooth=0&centerx=379.09090909090924&centery=375.9090909090909&station=BOX&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=0&rand=27413193

  16. It just started snow again after a brief break where I am. I am missing out on the big totals but I got more than I thought.

  17. I see that the 500 mb flow sharpens up considerably as the day wears on. That should bring the center a little closer and likely enhance the OES. Looking forward to see how that shakes out.

  18. Boston if everything pans out once this system is over should have more snow than they did last winter which was 38.6 inches and might get over 40 inches for the season to date once this over.

  19. Here is the 12Z HREF hourly snow rate map.
    If you click on the fat Right Arrow on the top right of the display, it will give you a loop.

    You can see the intensity back off for a period and then see
    the OES moving in and where the most intense OES band sets up.

    Pretty interesting

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_001h_mean&sector=ne

    If you are interested, here are the models that make up
    the HREF High Resolution Ensemble Forecast.

    https://ibb.co/89hHM12

  20. This morning’s NWS discussion

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
    935 AM update…

    Initial burst of snow this morning assocd with lead shortwave
    and area of modest mid level frontogenesis. While mid level
    frontogenesis weakens this afternoon, right entrance region of
    upper jet will provide modest forcing for ascent with a deep
    saturated column through the DGZ. Result will be light snow of
    varying intensity will continue through the afternoon with focus
    shifting to central/eastern MA, RI and NE CT where an
    additional 1 to 2 inches is expected by days end. Additional
    accum likely tonight, especially eastern MA as amplifying mid
    level trough approaches with inverted trough extending back to
    the coast along with some ocean enhancement from cooling and
    deepening boundary layer.

    1. I couldn’t predict and with these 2 teams, I really don’t have a favorite. If you were to force me to choose, I’d probably root
      for LA.

  23. Our very intelligent weather crowd here will be interested in this, but it will be a particular interest to model hounds like JPD and Tom and Mark etc. Yesterday’s 12 KM NAM runs were nicely picking up on the orientation of the more moderate snow band with the lead shortwave.

    JPD… I remember you remarking that the NAM had an odd snowfall distribution and that is exactly what you were observing. It picked up on that band although it did not quite pick up the OES fully at that point in time.

  24. That heavier band has made it up to Boston. Snowing more moderately now here. It really looks like we have a serious snow storm ongoing. Very picturesque.

    1. Snow is breaking up and even ending West of Worcester.
      This is what I was mentioning above. It may actually stop completely for a few hours. Certainly West of Boston, but
      perhaps even into Boston as well. Will be watching.

  25. The backside of the radar seems to becoming lighter and more patchy. Is this the slowdown in snow for the more north and western areas before the OES takes over primarily on the south shore and Cape? Gotta admit I never expected this much snow.

  26. Thanks TK.

    No skiing this weekend! Just dropped my daughter off at softball practice and getting ready for our annual super bowl party later.

    Had a burst of heavier snow move through near willimantic where I am now but the roads have been treated pretty well. I’d say we have about 2” here but will officially measure when I get back home. Pleasantly surprised this morning as I wasn’t expecting much out this way. I’ll have to say I wasnt really buying what the NAMs were offering but after seeing the HRRR last night in general agreement, it did raise an eyebrow.

  27. OES “should” allow Boston to expand its lead over Worcester considerably. We will see. 🙂

    BOS = 37.4” (to date)
    ORH = 32.8” (to date)

    do the math = +4.6”

  28. Here is the 12Z HREF 24 hour snow totals from 7AM today
    through 7AM tomorrow. Please note, it does not include any
    snow that fell prior to 7AM, which was generally about an inch
    or so across the region.

    https://ibb.co/rGR25rj

  32. Nice synoptic snow thus far. Closing in on 3 inches. Looking forward to snow picking up in intensity later this afternoon and evening. Could see a half foot and more to the south. Nice little surprise.

    1. You’re here. I agree with the 3 inch assessment so far. 🙂

      I think more than 1/2 foot is realized on the South Shore.
      Will be close for Boston.

  34. I am here for sure. Love these 3-6,4-8 type systems. The trend has been east for sure this winter. Don’t get against it.

  36. Just measured 3 inches of fluffy snow and I will take it as it was only suppose to be a coating out my way.

  37. We maxed out with 0.5″ of snow on the ground this morning and that was with 3 hours of 20-35DBZ returns above us. Now the sky has brightened and the filtered mid February solar strength melted away the coating. 11.5″ for the season. Almost to that magical foot.

    Watch that wind orientation for OES. Subtle N to NNE shift will make a significant difference in how much enhancement and where.

    1. In regards to that wind could that be a big factor in what some south shore folks get like say pembroke , Hanson , marshfield, Duxbury etc or is just most of the SOUTH Shore going to get in on it pretty good tonight . Thank you .

      1. Looking at the HREF snow rate map, it looks to be
        around 7-8 PM or so. So that is going by that model alone.
        Figure somewhere around then. Does not last as long to the North, so it shuts down N to S, ending on far South SHore around 7AM tomorrow. But ending in Boston around 1AM, thus the higher totals on the South Shore.

        Now we have to see what actually happens.

        WRF-FV3 has similar time, but has the snow more intermittent and ending around 7AM even in Boston.

        We’ll just have to watch and see. In other words, Now Cast. 🙂

  41. Thanks, TK!
    Hope Mrs. SSK is feeling better real soon! 🙂

    No more school/weather snow days, please!!!! 🙂

    Have a Super Sunday, everyone!

  42. 2.5 inches in Woburn from the initial burst. I like that getting me into the 3-6 inch range I have my area in, once we get what falls later.

    I like my #’s for now – always the chance you gotta tweak here and there when you are depending on at least a couple different mechanisms to provide your snowfall.

    One thing a lot of people don’t think about (hence my mention in the discussion) is the re-frozen melt-water and then the new snow hiding the ice. You can’t just walk into the new snow and assume there is bare ground underneath, especially in an area you don’t know very well. Extreme caution is needed or you risk a sore butt, or worse. One other thing that has helped in the bare ground (pavement) areas is the warmth of yesterday added JUST enough since we didn’t get too cold too quickly overnight, keeping the main roads and darker pavements wet. We’re now in mid February where the higher sun angle and the slightly thinner overcast above during any lulls provides some help too. But tonight it’s going to get much colder and the risk of icy ground goes up again for these areas.

    Will continue to monitor the “part 2” of this event, or the main event for south of Boston.

  43. Even though the radar looks paltry, it is still snowing here. Not nearly intense as earlier, but it is still snowing.
    Radar is showing a new burst of more robust snow heading NE from Eastern CT. We shall see where that set up in Eastern MA.
    Likely South of Boston, unless it pivots a tad to the NW.

  44. Well, this little 2ish inch surprise didn’t quite fit my plan. I had to quickly change my food pickup to delivery. Too many areas toward the center that can be tricky. Fortunately, it worked. But while I make some munchies for the game, two grands are making valentines at the kitchen table. Loving plan B.

    2. There’s always the chance, but not only do I think it will materialize, I think it will be supplemented by short wave energy.

  46. 16Z HRRR surface winds at 7PM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022021316&fh=8&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Good for South Shore OES, not so great for Boston.

    8PM, nice direction off shore, Boston, not so good

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022021316&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    9PM great direction and speed off shore, not so great Boston.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022021316&fh=10&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    No wonder the OES totals will be much better on the South Shore.

    I would like to see the wind at Boston at least paralleling the shore line for Boston up to Gloucester so the trajectory is entirely over the water. When it is more NNE it is coming over land, so even if there was OES to the North, it would lose it’s
    punch in the city. South Shore in Good shape even if more NNE.

    We shall see.

    Why am I getting the feeling that Boston Loses out on the
    OES ????????

        1. Somebody I know in that area is reporting steady snow now. Your event is just getting underway.

  49. Quote of the day, from the olympics in China, regarding the heavy snow that was falling during a cross country ski race.
    Kikkan Randall, former olympian and current NBC commentator: “This snow would cancel school in New England!”. 😉

      1. She was probably exaggerating a little bit, but it was pretty heavy snow. They’ve had a snowy couple days there after dry weather and biting cold. The climate there in winter tends to be cold and very dry. They rely on manmade snow which doesn’t melt, because it’s cold, but they just don’t get a lot of natural snow. But they are in the process of picking up a season’s worth of snowfall in a couple days (they average only around 10 to 12 inches of snow per winter in that area).

  50. I would say that the “accumulating” snow is done here for the time being anyway.

    Do we now wait for the OES tonight?

    1. There is still accumulating snow going on in northeastern MA, from Boston south to the Cape Cod Canal, and back through RI. Not great rates, but accumulating. Back to the northwest it has eased up and those areas have seen most of what they are going to see. south of Boston gets the majority of its accumulation after sunset.

  53. 2.5” here in Coventry CT and in a lull now. We’ll see if we can add anymore to it later. Not expecting much more as we are certainly out of the influence of any ocean effect snow out this way. That said the NWS has extended the WAA west to cover Tolland County for 3-6” total.

    1. This is a phrase I started to use a lot in the 1990s: “The atmosphere wants to snow!” Holds very true today. Felt this one coming. It’s playing out.

  55. Based on review of ongoing and upcoming…

    Not a lot of change to the #’s.

    1-3 on the northern and western outskirts of WHW forecast area, 3-5 inches through the heart, and 5-10 inches in the “jackpot” areas that have help from the ocean during tonight. Unlikely that anybody will get 10-12 at this point, but cannot completely rule that out if a snow band should set-up over a location for a significant length of time. But I think when we are done the extreme majority of reports will not be double-digit totals.

        1. Yes home Vicki & commute was fine . I stopped in Hanover on the way home to pick up some gourmet ice cream .

  56. What is the longest period of continuous snowfall that produced the least amount of accumulation?

    I swear it has been snowing for 12 hours here.

    1. That would be a very hard question to answer, but we have had, in my memory, up to 2 1/2 or 3 days of nearly continuous snowfall where I live with very little visible accumulation. In our region, this is most common in late winter / early spring as often a higher sun angle will play a role in it.

      1. The ground is coated and so are smaller streets. It is still snowing and this, from what I can see radar-wise, is not O.E.S.

        As for sun angle, I would guess we are in mid 30’s … degrees. I am fascinated by weather.

  57. When does the OES snow start and is it still phenomenon of the cape and south shore? Very light snow in Natick but looks like it will go on for weeks.

    1. It evolves this evening, primarily down there, but may tickle the metro too.

      Additional synoptic snow to come as well.

      1. The forecast shows hours of snow still to come yet it seems like it will only add about an inch give or take. Hard to imagine. Is the radar going to break up at some point or finally head to the coast?

  59. The sfc winds are NE on the Cape and on many of the buoys east of Massachusetts.

    Cape Cod temps in the mid 30s.

    So, another area for convergence is there.

    I don’t know if the ocean enhancement has begun as it stills appear to be mostly synoptic snow, moving from SW to NE.

    But, with that sfc wind set-up, the Ocean enhancement piece shouldn’t be far off.

    1. We have had about 3” here just went out to shovel. I’m hoping for ocean enhancement for a little bit more.

      Thank you Tk

  61. I can see the snowfall moving in 2 different direction on radar now. Northeastward: synoptic. Southwestward, mainly south of Boston: ocean-effect.

  63. The Mrs. Just won $250 on Football Squares for MS.

    Not too shabby.

    Not impressed with what is going on outside at the moment.
    Since about Noon time it has accumulated about a whopping 1/2 inch or so. 🙂

  64. Halftime. Well, my girls are loving it. Said it feels as if they are back in high school.

    I’ve enjoyed a few ads, but hands down Joel McHale ad is best. Only he could pull it off.

          2. I just read that as “you’re a bit of an a hole” and almost spit my drink out….and then I realized that drink is probably why I read it that way. 😉

  68. I’d like to see the original holding penalty again but right now Cincinnati is handing the rams the game.

  70. Not only did the Mrs. win $250 for the half time score, she
    won another $500 for the final score for a $750 total.
    She’ll take it.

    Snowing a little better now.

  71. I see a bunch of yellow showing up on radar to the SW. That looks to be Synoptic and I can finally see OES snow coming on shore even up here in Boston. 🙂

  73. We are under a moderate/heavy band now . Wellesley/Needham area. We have about 2” on the ground now and I cleared the walk about at 415pm.

  75. Picked up another inch this evening before the back end of the snow came through. 3.5” total here in Coventry CT. Certainly not the jackpot of this storm but more than I was expecting. Will be nice to have a 100% white landscape back for a few days!

      1. Well it’s 7 AM and the tiniest of flakes are falling … last gasp. I would say light, light flurries.

  77. Still snowing here in JP, but the end is just about here.

    My wife got paid the $250 via venmo, but did not get the $500. She had the same square for both 1/2 and final.
    One you win on a square, does that mean the square is ineligible to win again? If so, then no one wins the $500.

    I don”t get it. I have’t played these type of squares in 40-50 years Do not know how it works

    Anyone know. thanks.

    1. There are four winners in those squares games. Based on the score if she won the halftime squares she should have won the fourth quarter/final square. You do not become ineligible that’s not how the game works – the person running the game does not get to pocket the money.

      1. Thanks doc for the information.

        It may simply be the daily limit on venmo where $500 was sent prior to end of game, $125 1st qtr, $250 half, $125 3rd qtr. The $500 would have made $1000. I think there is a $999 daily limit. not sure

    1. Same here. I think Grafton may have reached 8″.

      It is now snowing in Swampscott at the rate of 1/10,000 of an inch per hour. 🙂

  79. Flurries now more moderate but we are at the end I think. Of course I told myself we are at the end a half dozen times yesterday.

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