I’ll Take The Dry Road

194 Comments

10:21PM

A cold front has settled southward across New England and will sit just south of New England while a wave of low pressure moves along it later Wednesday. This will spread lots of clouds across southern New England but other than a few flakes of snow across the South Coast, dry weather will prevail. High pressure slides overhead Thursday then offshore Friday with dry weather and a milder trend. A cold front will cross the region Saturday and a brief shot of cold air will follow for Sunday and Monday. At this point I expect the front to come through dry as energy jumps from the mountains to offshore and forms a storm system over the ocean. Cold air will flow in Sunday through early Monday, but energy coming around the base of a strong circulation in eastern Canada will probably swing too far south then east of New England to form any storms close enough to produce snow in the Boston area, so despite a turn to a more midwinter feel, I expect it to remain dry. Beyond this cold shot, it already looks like milder weather will be back by the middle of next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 15-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 33-38. Wind N around 10 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 22-27. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 37-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 47.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 16. High 31.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 11. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 42.

194 thoughts on “I’ll Take The Dry Road”

    1. I like the overall 00z GFS solution for the pattern in general. I still believe the Euro is going to miss with the snow threat for Saturday. I wanted to lean that way several days ago but I just can’t jump on the bandwagon.

      Also think people may be disappointed with the magnitude of the upcoming cold shot. May only end up with 1 day of below normal temp, possibly 2 (Sunday and/or Monday). Rapid warm-up just after this. Agree with CPC’s above normal temps in the 8-14 range.

      1. Harvey was brilliant then too…..his answers to the anchor’s questions are informative, concise and right on.

    3. I just had a chance to watch the video – thank you very much for posting it. It was quite a time and a wonderful memory of how all pulled together. The end made me sad. The media no longer focuses on the positive in far too many instances and people seem unwilling to leave the last bottle of water or milk or whatever on the store shelf for others.

      Harvey Leonard was always one of my favorites. And I chuckled when I heard at the beginning that Bobby Vinton would not be seen because of the special.

        1. Thanks TK…I had seen that video before but it was nice of you to share it with us given the anniversary. I am curious as to what road that tanker truck is going across the screen at the closing credits. It looks like an arctic or antarctic scene with tall buildings in the background. 🙂

          It was also interesting to see Harvey’s maps for that previous Saturday as to how “benign” they look…a high pressure area over eastern Canada, a cold front over the midwest and a cold front just south of Florida. I remember watching that very broadcast live in my kitchen just before dinner. I was in my late teens at the time.

          1. I also just want to say that my neighborhood actually lost power the day “after” the blizzard on the 8th (today) sometime early afternoon and the power was restored later that evening.

  5. TK, your last two headlines have really cracked me up! Your on a roll!!!

    Who (other than Charlie) would have guess that Boston would receive less than 9″ of snow for the season on truck day 2012?

  6. FRIDAY NIGHT…START TO TRANSITION TO A BRIEF UNSETTLED PATTERN AS
    COLD FRONT APPROACHES…ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
    ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF MIGRATING POLAR VORTEX ACROSS QUEBEC.
    SOME MODELS ARE DIGGING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE AS IT REACHES THE
    MID ATLC COAST. SO…STILL DISAGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL OF THIS
    SURFACE SYSTEM. BOTH THE 12Z AND 00Z OP RUNS OF THE ECMWF MOST
    AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE…DEVELOPING LOW PRES LATE FRI NIGHT S
    OF NEW ENGLAND. BIG QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT ARE…WHEN THIS WILL
    OCCUR…HOW STRONG IT BECOMES AS WELL AS ITS TRACK. LOTS TO
    RESOLVE…BUT SEE GENERAL SIGNALS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
    LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE S
    COAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. OTHER ISSUES ARE BOUNDARY LAYER
    AND SURFACE TEMPS. COLDER AIR NOT QUITE WORKED INTO THE S COAST…SO
    WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN STRAIGHT RAIN TO
    START…AND IT WILL BE LIGHT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS LIKELY LOW
    DEVELOPMENT.

    SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT…AT THIS POINT…HAVE BROUGHT IN CHANCE
    POPS UP TO JUST S OF THE MASS PIKE…WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
    S COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN DURING SATURDAY…SO FEEL
    MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW BUT NOT A LOT OF QPF AS THE LOW
    TRIES TO SKIRT S OF THE REGION. IF THIS LOW TRACKS CLOSER…THEN IT
    IS A WHOLE NEW BALLGAME. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE MORE QPF THAN
    MODELS FORECASTING THIS MORNING…WHICH COULD MEAN LIGHT TO
    ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS /N CT-RI-SE MA/. HAVE
    MENTIONED THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

    SO…HAVE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
    SATURDAY NIGHT…THEN SHOULD SHIFT E AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT WORKS
    OFFSHORE. WILL SEE COLDER AIR WORK IN…SO W-NW WINDS WILL START TO
    BECOME GUSTY MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK
    TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST AREAS.

  7. I wonder how this odd winter will effect the maple syrup season here in New England. My uncle lives in the southern Adirondacks. He actually lives between Little Mountain and Crane Mountain in Thurman, NY (1500′ Elevation). He has a good size sugar house were he makes is maple syrup. I remember so many times when we would visit him we spent hours and hours splitting and stacking wood for the sapping season. Early on we would go on sap runs, running in the woods grabbing the buckets of sap and pouring them in large containers in his truck. Then he had a cleaver idea, the land behind his house and sugar shack went straight up to the top of Little Mountain. He decided to run a network of tubes from tree to tree to collecting tanks that then ran down to two large tanks at his sugar house. No more running around and collecting, the sap simply came to him. Though he had too install the tubes and taps every year it still was a lot easier for him at his age. My wife and I want to try making our own syrup in our back yard next spring, but we have to do a lot of planning before that can happen.

    1. my friend who lives southwest of Boston and taps his trees has just tapped them – he says earlier than normal. I’ll have to ask him how much earlier.

      1. I always thought it was 2nd to 3rd week of March in upstate NY. They have to process the sap soon after collecting or it will go bad.

        1. I’m trying to find out how early it is for him this year. My guess is upstate NY would be later than the Holliston area of MA. I’ll let you know what he says as I’m curious too. I’ve always loved to visit the various sugar houses and remember not only the syrup but the candy from the time I was very young.

      2. I drive by Flint Farm in East Mansfield on my way to work. Much to my surprise this morning I saw the collecting buckets on some of the trees. Don’t know if they were tapping or just getting ready.

        1. There’s a little maple syrup place near Quechee Gorge in Mendon, VT that I always stop at on the way home from Killington. Last year I went last week of Feb. The trees needed another 2 weeks they said. Hopefully this year when I go the same week, the trees will be ready. Nothing like getting a fresh bottle of maple syrup that’s still warm from processing!

    3. We live in Lunenburg. We have a neighbor who makes and sells quite a bit of maple syrup. He is definitely concerned about this year. They have been collecting for a few weeks already. Things are out of whack this year and he is not really sure what the result will be in the end.

    1. If it’s true, I’m trying to think of what in a squirrels diet would turn it purple. Berries?? But how many? There are black squirrels all over western MA.

    2. Apparently between the age of 10 days and 3 weeks – as the hair comes in – squirrels are Grayish-purple color. Maybe somehow the purple just never faded.

  9. BTW look at the NAM and its more towards the EURO instead of the GFS. I know JMA pointed out yesterday how bad the NAM has been this winter, but its showing the same feautre as the EURO.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120208%2F06%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=081&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=02%2F08%2F2012+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  10. I know TK is not on board for anything this weeked, but it just seems like a sneaky type of situation that might surprise us all. Not saying that’s the case, but the way winter has gone this might be one surprise the other way.

    1. Hadi I was thinking the same thing. Since the storms that appear to be headed our way are going POOF, I keep having the feeling that it’ll be the one least expected that will catch us off guard.

    2. Hadi, Was thinking exactly the same thing. 🙂

      Noticed a hint of it on the 0Z NAM. Then I actually see something
      on the 06Z NAM. Now waiting for the 12Z Run.

      Did not show up well on the 06Z GFS, however and the 0Z Euro still has it
      but appears most action off shore. We shall see.

  11. Hadi I have said this all week this low pressure area needs to be watched because any slight shifts could bring quite a different outcome. Even the NWS discussion that was posted here says if it tracks closer its a whole new ball game.
    Best shot Saturday for precipitation I would say is the Southeastern MA.

    1. This was posted on AccuWeather… As the energy (trough) associated with this Arctic front approaches the Northeast U.S. coast on Saturday, I expect to see a storm to intensify somewhere just east or southeast of Cape Cod, Mass. Even though the American models are not too excited about this, I have seen this type of situation lead to a rapidly intensifying storm over the Gulf Stream which can lead to a sudden snowstorm over eastern New England and extending into the western Maritimes. I am confident there will be an intensifying storm; it’s just the location of where it develops that’s still way up in the air. Something to monitor over the next couple of days.

      1. Yes, this was posted on AccuWeather last evening. Is it still there? Has it been updated at all? 🙂

  12. Wouldn’t that be sweet!!

    The way JMA/TK have done most of the winter (not perfect) but pretty darn accurate, I would like to see more from them. Even though they are both always very reserved vs. the rest of the us 🙂

    1. From NWS at Upton, NY for Saturday:

      WITH COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
      THE BASE OF AN H5 TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA…SFC LOW PRES
      WILL FORM OFF THE COAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND KEEP
      THE LOW EITHER JUST OVER OR EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.

  15. Fox 25 is saying light snow for Saturday. We shall see. I have always felt a sneak up storm would get us. Not saying that we even get snow Saturday. Friday the temp climbs up to 50s. Time will tell.

    1. Then watch those temps crash with the cold front coming through. Its that front where a wave
      will form on. I think best shot at precipitation is southeastern MA but still time for that to change. Cold shot is brief and it
      warms back up middle of next week.

    1. Oh well, we gave it a shot. Looks like another case of too little, too late.
      Just as TK suggested. 🙂

  20. HarveyWCVB Harvey Leonard
    Thu. (40s) and Fri. (50) will be springlike. Then rain changing to snow Saturday as temps. drop..frigid Sat. Nt-Mon AM

  21. No surprise I’m going with the way winter has been going and that storm will miss us just to the south all though wouldn’t surprise me if extreme southern new England gets 1-3 inches, sun angle is the same as late Oct, it’s a race now, it better hurry up, time is running out, have a good day everyone and it’s day 3 of this horrible loss that was suffered Sun night and it will take 3 more days to even watch sports/espn ughh 🙁

  24. today increasing clouds with highs in the high 30s
    tonight cloudy with a lows in the low 20s
    thursday and friday mostly sunny highs in the mid 40s with lows in the the mid 20s
    friday night cloudy with lows in the low 20s
    saturday partly to mostly cloudy spotty snow flurries highs in the low 30s and windy.
    saturday night much colder and windy lows in the low 10s wind chill around 0 possibly.
    sunday sunny highs in the low 30s
    sunday night through tuesday mostly to partly sunny with highs in the 30s and lows in the upper 10s and low 20s

    two possible times some one in southern new england could see some kind of snow . one is tonight for the cape and islands /south coast . only a few snow showers maybe a few dustings.
    the second is for the first part of the weekend. I am kind of confident that areas around boston points north and west will get only flurries or nothing at all. the question is what happens south and east and southwest of boston . If everything alines right we could be talking a light snow event and possible moderate for islands.if there is no mixing . then there is the other one and it does not happen at all.

      2. I would depend on the precipitation shield. And that was
        last night’s run. Let’s see what this morning’s run shows.

  26. I don’t think this one is in the cards guys. Of course things can change. One thing to consider is could the cape maybe get a private storm again.

  27. I’m not giving in just yet on seeing snow fall from the sky on Saturday.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120208%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=081&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=02%2F08%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  29. OS was gonna say that!! But the GFS has been the same run after run so I did not expect anything else from the 12Z

    2. Whatever energy there is, will have this system jump to the coast
      and move out East SOUTH of us, I presume. We’ll keep watching that
      radar for changes, anyway.

      1. I remember one storm last year that was suppose to slide south of us but when we looked at the radar we saw a more northerly push to it. Could this be the same case? Who knows.

  33. I guess my prediction of 68 inches this season might be in jeopardy but it was just a guess anyway. If I say no snow this weekend it will based on my track record this year. The BZ blog sure is getting worse no one left on it but BM now and again and he gets trashed for saying it’s a sunny day. Be well and enjoy the weather.

    1. Welcome, Merlin! I remember you on the WBZ blog when I used to post there. I very rarely post there anymore – too bad it’s gone the way it has.

      And as far as your prediction of 68 inches this season is concerned – you never know – we could get a couple of blizzards or an extension of snowy days, even in March into April! 🙂

  34. 12z GFS is very cold for Monday. There is a area of low pressure associated with the arctic front on the GFS.
    I am very interested in the 12z EURO.

  35. The latest AO, NAO and PNA…UGH !!! 🙁

    The snow area over the Ohio Valley looks quite impressive this morning…hard to believe it is pretty much OTS. At first glance you would think much of SNE would get a taste at least. 🙁

    1. “Maybe Next Year” for the Patriots and now winter. Hopefully, we won’t have to include any other teams or seasons in that old cliche!

  37. BTW 12Z GFS very interesting for next Friday….

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120208%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=204&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=02%2F08%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

    1. I actually had quite a shocking laugh at one of the comments over there in particular. I’m pretty sure you can guess which one. Just plain awful.

    1. In an attempt to try and read that, Hadi, I see the lighter and then darker blue over MA on what I think is Saturday. Does that indicate snow? Thank you.

        2. It said image not available. I tried typing in 11th on left side and also clicking > arrow. What am I doing wrong?

          1. Vicki – try pressing the + button. Keep pressing it and the image will move to where you want it. The – button moves it back.

    2. So Hadi, as of right now its the GFS and NAM vs. EURO, Canadian, UKmet?… anything else showing this solution as of the latest for today? Seems like we have American vs. the World thing going on 🙂

  42. I love this site cause you can always get the strait scoop. I do read it a lot but don’t post much since I don’t have much to offer weather wise. Thanks to all of you for keeping it sane.

    1. Merlin I also have little weather-wise info to offer but have found those here are happy to help us learn.

  46. Merlin – I have been learning a lot and I am still learning now, too.

    Hadi – re: the link above w/the CMC coming in the same as EURO; it looks so close – if only we could just push it more north . . .

  48. Hadi-Actually I said the GFS was decent this winter in the 24-120. Basically 1-5 day range. It is the ECMWF and its Ensembles that I have ridden some 192-360. GFS has been consistently too cold in that time range.

    7-10 days ago when I down played any potential for this 10th-12th time period, I did say I found the potential for 17th-19th more interesting. Right now I would trend warmer than the GFS for that time period.

        1. Thanks for this link, too. It almost looks to me like the northern part of the precip. is disintregating and heavier stuff stays south. So maybe that’s why mets. are saying more likely precip. tonight along the southeast of MA. I don’t know – just guessing.

          1. yup, something like that. Running into drier air for one thing. Also, I believe that atmospheric
            conditions are more favorable farther East and South, so I think most of the precip will be in that area. Given that, still fun to watch and see what happens. One notable feature, the thicker
            high clouds are just not in there yet.

  52. Learning more about the weather is fascinating and the links to the different models helps a lot, thank you all. I would say a lot of you could forecast the weather based on what I have read in the past. Thanks TK for keeping the site up and running.

    1. Glad you enjoy the site, Merlin. Post any time you want. Observations and thoughts are always welcome.

  54. 18Z NAM confirms that tonight’s system develops too far South and
    Then East to affect us in much of any way. Oh Well. Nice little system
    when it gets to our latitude. Another miss.

    1. I agree Old Salty- not much going for tonight or Saturday. Tk had called this and keeps his record intact.

        1. Hadi- I know you want the snow bad as do I. I just do not see this thing panning out. I wish it would. But all the signs pointing in that direction. There could be a touch of very light snow for the southcoast that’s it. Again I would love for it to change but I doubt It. But check the Nam and see what It offers.

      1. What a picture. The moon was rising over the Scituate light house. Patriotledger.com has this if anybody want’s to check It out.

  56. Good news bad news from the CPC. In both outlooks above normal precipitation which is the good news. The bad news above normal temps in both outlooks.

  58. 18z NAM has some snow Saturday night, but since most other models have backed off, and the NAM isn’t performing well this winter, I wouldn’t put too much stock into it. However I would not rule out a snow squall.

    1. I think that is the key word for Saturday squall. I think and feel that is a strong chance, but that’s about It.

  59. Hi there. What a great site. I came apon this while searching some weather blogs and
    this came up. I love tracking winter weather as a hobby. I am a nurse for my job. I commute in to Boston from the cape and need to be on top of the weather. Again what a great site, I wish I found this last winter. Is there a way to be a part of this blog. Thank’s Trisha.

  60. I would agree with that. I think any flakes that fall from the sky will be a result of the cold front coming through and not from the low pressure forming on the front. I would still keep an eye on it but its seems VERY LOW chance this thing will have an impact on us.

  61. Nothing to report today except this may be the first Wednesday in a long time that featured normal (perhaps even a tad below) temperatures. Beautiful day, actually. Too bad every time we get a nice winter’s day it’s followed by a series of spring-in-winter days. Oh well.

    1. Joshua – if I remember correctly it was you who mentioned the aurora borealis the other day. They had some nice videos of it from the space station if you haven’t seen them.

        2. Imsaw those Joshua. I showed them to my husband also as that area of the world is special to him. Thank you

        1. Well darn. Sorry Joshua and ace master. So I’ll take a muligan.

          Have you seen the videos of the aurora borealis from the space station Acemaster. :).

  62. From the AFD from NWS

    SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT…AT THIS POINT…HAVE BROUGHT IN CHANCE
    POPS UP TO JUST S OF THE MASS PIKE…WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
    S COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN DURING SATURDAY…SO FEEL
    MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW BUT NOT A LOT OF QPF AS THE LOW
    TRIES TO SKIRT S OF THE REGION. IF THIS LOW TRACKS CLOSER…THEN IT
    IS A WHOLE NEW BALLGAME. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE MORE QPF THAN
    MODELS FORECASTING THIS MORNING…WHICH COULD MEAN LIGHT TO
    ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS /N CT-RI-SE MA/. HAVE
    MENTIONED THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

  65. This NYC Nexrad Radar pretty much tells the story of the Southern Passage of
    the main slug of moisture. So although just perhaps there might be a tad bit of
    snow as far North as the Mass Pike, the bulk of what there is passes well to our
    South. Just the way it is.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

  66. 18Z GFS has the Saturday system somewhat farther to the South. Still not sure
    it will amount to much, but is this a trend?

      1. It’s just not meant to be OS. One of these runs somtime before mounths end will be meant to be. I like the idea of maybe school vacation week, maybe another holiday storm. I think Philip is calling for that week as well.

  67. The 18z GFS is definitely further east with the low pressure this weekend, and of course very cold, the -20 line at 850mb gets all the way to NYC.

    Just going to keep a small eye on this.

  68. Not to add even worse news, next weeks GFS has mid 40’s all week!! Never seen anything like this in my almost 40yrs of living in New England.

    1. We’ve had winters with low snow accumulations but like you Charlie I do not ever remember the warmth combined with lack of snow

        1. January was the 4th warmest on record in the lower 48. Intuitively, without numbers in front of me I would say that December was roughly as warm as January (and going back to November, that was also on the warm side, though not as warm in relative terms as December and January, relative to historical norms). February will likely be on the warm side, too, but indications are it won’t be as warm as January. We’ll see where this winter winds up in terms of cold and snow, but it will likely be meager indeed.

            1. For Logan, I think Logan’s highest anomoly was +5.7F. Its only thru the 7th, but Logan is at +6.9F for February with tomorrow and Friday’s 45F to 50F staring us in the face. Yes, a 2 day cooldown, but middle of next week could be off to the anomolous warmth races once again.

  69. I don’t think the winter will be as high up on the all-time warm list if you include March. MJO is going to get to phase 8 and about 1 to 2 weeks after that, winter starts. But we may preview it with a major snow or mix event after February 17.

    1. After the 17th because of phase 8. You normally do not go that far out. Do you see somthing or just thinking the chances will be better with the new phase.

        1. My third grand baby is due late march. Daughters first was born during a snowstorm in December and she went home during a second storm. My daughter was saying today at least this time it’s march so odds are storms will be less of a concern.

          1. You would hope so. But the crazy winter we seem to be having I would say all bets off till at least 4/1.

            1. Well I reminded her that her brother was born in a mid march snow and when he was 10 days old in 1984 we lost power for 4 days in a huge storm. You all know that I love losing power

    2. Just hope it actually snows at phase 8, as phase 8 is usually a dry phase, but cold. But in this winter, there have been many exceptions.

  70. Not bullish on any significant pattern change, yet…..

    I see the potential for some mixed events after February 20th but these marginal temp events become so much more difficult to stay cold in late February.

    I will preface this by saying I am awful long-range and/or seasonal forecaster.

    I do see the potential for the pattern the winter lovers wanted finally setting up for the 1st 1/3 or 1/2 of Spring. Potential for a spring storm-of course! But more likely just lots of dreary cold and wet days.

    It would be pretty wild if an essentially non-existent winter was book-ended by two anomalous winter storms, one in pre-season and one in post-season.

    Just as likely is we continue this mild and dry string all the way into the spring. Talking to one seasonal forecaster who i respect, his outlier opinion is the northeast is drier and much above temp wise all the until the middle of the upcoming hurricane season.

      1. This winter has been real good for my ego! However, the 1-5 streak I was on the first half of last winter always reminds how humbling this can be.

        I always try to stay even and never get too loud about the wins.

  72. Tk- I was just wondering since you run a blog. As you see from above posts regarding comments made today on wbz weather blog It was the worst I have ever seen. Why would they want to keep that running, even more so when sexual comments were being made to Miss. Mack, and not just one. I ‘m not sure if you saw that. All comments were removed because I reported it. I know you have said before it is the higher ups. I am just wondering how much is enough for them to see the trash that is being thrown around that site. I felt for Miss Mack as she does not deserve that.

    1. She shouldn’t have to deal with that, and I did take a quick look over there and you could tell that a bunch had been removed (didn’t know it was you that did that, but I have done that in the past as well). My guess is that CBS doesn’t have anybody doing a network-wide moderating, nor do they have more than staff members at the local level responding to reported comments. This format makes such behavior quite easy, and the anonymity of the net just adds to it.

    2. Thanks for reporting those comments on BZ’s blog, John. Personal attacks are totally uncalled for. When I was there this morning, they’re were some negative remarks regarding Melissa’s weather skills, but it sounds like it got worse as the day progressed.

  73. 00z NAM is awfully close there for the weekend, I can’t take my eye off of it. Let’s see if the 00z GFS continues it’s slight western trend.

  74. I have a sneaky suspicion for no scientific reason that Saturday will indeed pan out to be a minor event…1-3″…just a wishful thought in any event…interested to see tonight’s run

      1. Looks like it offers the chance of an inch or two of snow for a good portion of SNE on Saturday, with perhaps 3″+ SE of a Groton-Providence-Taunton line? I like the trend in the right direction, but I think this storm just isn’t going to have time to blow up quick enough to deliver much more than that.

  78. The reminder I occasionally post:

    If you are commenting for the first time, be aware that your comment will need to be approved by admin before appearing. After approval, as long as you are using the same email address your comments should appear when you submit them.

    Since I am the only admin at this time, it sometimes may be a little while before I get to the comments awaiting moderation. As you may know, spam messages can and often do appear in droves, and weeding through them so as to not miss newcomers can take some time.

    Thank you for your patience! 🙂

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