Tuesday February 22 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)

75 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada today through early Wednesday via New York, northwestern New England, and the St. Lawrence Valley. Its warm front will bring some rain showers later today. The most widespread rain shower activity will occur in the warm sector tonight when the wind will become quite gusty as well, and most of Wednesday will be rain-free other than a rain shower chance first thing in the morning and a risk of few more isolated ones along a passing cold front during the afternoon. Before that cold front gets here, we’ll warm nicely, with many areas away from the South Coast reaching or exceeding 60F. Don’t get used to that though, because cold air comes back in that night, and becomes established across the region as high pressure builds across southeastern Canada Thursday. We’ll already be seeing some high cloudiness in the sky Thursday too ahead of our next storm threat – low pressure heading toward the interior Northeast from the Midwest, to redevelop and move out just south of New England or tracking near Long Island or the New England South Coast during Friday. This is a wintry scenario for our region, starting as snow at least for all locations, but enough warm air gets involved that we will probably see some sleet and rain becoming involved with the system, especially the closer to the South Coast you are, during Friday, before it all ends as snow on Friday night. It’s a little too early for snow/sleet numbers, but the system has the potential to produce moderate amounts of accumulation over a good part of the region. Fair, cold weather will dominate behind that departed storm on Saturday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain showers at times this afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers. Temperatures rising to 48-55. Wind shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast with gusts above 40 MPH NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and RI.

WEDNESDAY: Any early clouds and rain showers give way to a sun/cloud mix with one more isolated rain shower possible during the afternoon. Highs 57-64, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W late.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine dimmed by high cloudiness. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast with snow/sleet likely and ice/rain possible especially South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Watching for a disturbance February 27, probably just a cold front from the northwest with a few possible snow showers as a low pressure area passes well to the south and misses the region, reinforcing cold air through Monday. Temperatures remain near to below normal into the first days of March and watching for another threat of unsettled weather around March 2.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

The overall pattern looks colder than average with another storm threat potential at some point.

75 thoughts on “Tuesday February 22 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Boston looks to be on the fence. Could go either way, but snow to sleet to snow seems most likely. Farther South rain could get involved. We shall see how it plays out. For sure, a decent front end thump of snow. Hopefully it will put Boston over the seasonal average. That would be so unexpected given the forecasts for the season.

    1. While I think Boston will probably have more than 50 or even 75% frozen from the Friday system I think this will be the system that puts Worcester ahead of them to stay for the season.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Cindy on Ch. 5 showed a preliminary snow map of 6-12” for those who stay ALL snow. Boston on the fence of that as JPD mentioned above.

      1. I wonder if the general public on 2/22/1922 even noticed things like this. That particular year it was on a Wednesday, btw. 😉

        The world was a lot less complicated.

    1. Wow, sleet extends over into Southern VT and NH.
      I am sure this is not final, but this was my gut feeling yesterday.
      I would NOT be surprised to see this come a tad farther North.
      I hope it trends a bit Farther south, however.

  11. I have been reading about how the NWS is changing its Atlantic, Caribbean, and GoM forecast zones for tropical events. NWS says they are doing this for greater precision in forecasting with more attention to local climatology; for better timing; etc. (Or at least I think that’s what they are saying.) They say there are benefits for all.

    I think they are about doubling the number of forecast zones from 32 to 60. Have to admit I don’t get all of this even though I have been following it since the end of last year.

    https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/ebc71a5d460d4a6e952f90d5578d87db

  13. George Washington was born 290 years ago (1732) today in the then colony of Virginia. What a life he led: As a soldier, farmer, general, founding father, and president.

      1. True. Jefferson was as well. And many other prominent figures at that time. I’m not condoning it, by the way.

        1. Not suggesting that at all. It just disgusts me that a few former US presidents thought that owning humans was OK. Evidently that thinking still exists in some parts of this nation. Very sad.

  14. I suspect whatever falls on Friday will end up being difficult to move around, even those who stay all snow as temperatures will be borderline or just a few degrees below. I doubt there will be fluff in too many areas this time.

    Do you agree JPD?

  15. This is the Northern extent of the Sleet/Frzing rain line for the
    Friday event (PLease note, these charts are at 3 hour increments, so between them, it is entirely possible that the
    line could move Northward some.)

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022022212&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Total Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022022212&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Surface Temp map at 1 PM Friday:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct_b&rh=2022022212&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. Hmmm, looking at those wind barbs I am wondering if there
      might be a boundary layer issue right along the coast with
      those due Easterly winds. Ocean is 41 degrees. Intensity
      “may” be enough to keep that at bay.

  17. Well, we seem to have pretty good model agreement on A winter storm. The question is, how far North does the Mix line come and possible any change to rain.

    1. INDEED!!! I loved watching that.

      BTW, the whole thing was captured pretty well in the 2004 Movie MIRACLE starring Kurt Russell, who I think did a masterful job. Excellent movie. I have watched it
      several times.

      What makes this so extra special is that we had several local
      boys on that miracle team:

      Jim Craig
      Jack O’Callahan
      Mike Eruzione
      Dave Silk
      And assistant coach Craig Patrick

      This has given me goose bumps!

      1. Craig Patrick is most definitely not local. The Patrick family is hockey royalty in the US, but he’s from Detroit. He didn’t play college hockey here (he went to Denver), and his pro career as both a player and a coach/executive only brought him here as a visitor.

    1. Given the temps, I don’t think we will see 10:1. Of course, every storm this winter has had its own uniqueness.

      1. Well, we could still see 10:1. It is not the surface temp
        that drives it. But it could also be less than 10:1 as well.
        GFS has ratio of 8:1. We shall see.

  21. Craig Patrick, born in Detroit Michigan, grew up in Wellesley Massachusetts, and shares a birthday with me (different year though, he’s only 21 years older than I am hahaha). 🙂

    Drove through a quick downpour on I-95 south on the way home from Reading a while ago – reminded me of spring a bit. No, we’re not there yet, but the days of winter are numbered now that we are in late February.

    I heard the anchor on WBZ today refer to this month as one of the weirdest weather months we’ve ever seen. I definitely don’t agree. We’ve had snow, rain, cold, mild, brief warm shots, one record-tying / record-setting day (so far). Kind of “typical” if you ask me. 😉

  22. BTW, don’t think anyone reaches 70 tomorrow. Nice day though, 60s away from the South Coast. We don’t have the right wind direction and enough warming for long enough before the cold front gets here. I think the timing is a little earlier.

  24. Pretty remarkable consistency on snow amounts on the global models from 12z … GFS a touch higher and I’m not surprised. That’s been the over-cooker this season (with the exception of the blizzard), but it’s at least not out of control. NAM may be a touch warm but no surprise given the range.

    Do I buy that general idea? I’m getting closer to agreeing that these are slightly overdone.

    Numbers will appear on tomorrow morning’s blog post. 🙂

  25. I have really had it with the TV folks talking about how “strange” the weather is. I’m fine with them saying it’s a roller coaster ride. That’s definitely true. But, there’s nothing strange about this weather, unless you are NOT from New England. For outsiders, I’m sure it is weird.

    TK likes to use the phrase “battle zone” between the cold north of us that tends to stay in place right through March and the warmth to our south (at least much of the time). We’re frequently in that battle zone, and depending on the track of the systems of low pressure as well as the positioning of high pressure, we’ll have rain, snow, sleet, cold, mild, and everything in between. Yes, that’s perfectly normal. In many ways, this winter has been very typical. I’m grateful for that because we’ve had some `real’ winter and it looks like we’ll have some more later this week as well as the next couple of weeks.

    1. It’s both TV & radio (and net of course) that continue to do this “everything is crazy” thing – no, it’s NOT. It’s freaking WEATHER! It’s one thing to get excited about it in the reporting, since there is an element of entertainment needed to keep the people watching / listening. I get that. But it’s another thing to sound like a moron saying something really stupid. That’s exactly what we hear most of the time now – STUPID stuff. No sugarcoating this one, sorry folks. 😉 I gotta call this one as I see it, and that’s how I see it.

        1. It’s like I always say – where do we GET the averages? This is why I hate hearing people say “This is where we’re supposed to be at this time of year.” No. That’s not correct. It’s never correct. We’re never supposed to be average. It’s RARE.

      1. They will go with the higher range (8-12) here to coverage that with the lower #’s. I bet if you talk to one of the forecasters there, they would shy away from 10, 11, or 12.

  33. So far, I have yet to see any forecast from the tv mets that bring any plain rain much further north than the immediate South Coast. If anything, could things shift further south?

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