2 Mild Days, A Near-Miss Storm, Then A Cold Blast

285 Comments

2:37AM

As has been the case so many times this winter so far, another period of very mild weather will take place today through Friday. An Arctic cold front will pass through the region Saturday as a storm develops off the Mid Atlantic Coast. At this time I’m going to continue to lean toward the drier forecast, though I will introduce a chance of rain showers changing to snow showers for a time on Saturday as the leading edge of cold arrives. Sunday and early Monday should be the coldest of a short-lived blast of Arctic air. Sunday night will likely turn out to be the coldest night of the winter season so far in many areas. However, as has also been the case, mild air will be set to return very quickly. We’ll already feel moderation just getting underway by Monday afternoon, and temperatures will be back to their milder than normal comfort zone by Tuesday of next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Clouds depart early, turning sunny. High 42-47. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 32-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny most of the day, clouds late. High 46-51. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. High 40-45 in the morning then cooling into the 30s afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Low 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 23-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 6. High 36.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 44.

285 thoughts on “2 Mild Days, A Near-Miss Storm, Then A Cold Blast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I agree with your Saturday thinking…..and……..if ever some moisture from the coastal feature got involved in eastern/southeastern Mass on Saturday, I think in those areas, the boundary layer might be too warm for snow anyway.

  2. Today’s noontime solar elevation in Boston : 32.9 degrees above the horizon.

    By Next Wednesday (2/15 ….. just 6 days from now) : 34.9 degrees or a 2 degree increase in SIX days.

    I picked these 2 days because they are projected to be mild (40s). The ground is dry, there’s little ice and no snow around to use up any of the sun’s energy and the sun is now rising higher in the sky rapidly.

    On any mild weather day, I think the high temp ends up being 2 to 4F higher than most model projections, until the rains or snows return to add some moisture to the ground.

    So, under that logic, I think Logan and many communities hit 50F or 51F today.

    Have a good day all !

  3. The morning discussion from NWS is again much more bullish about accumulating snow. Both nam and GFS are much closer to the coast then previous runs.

    TK any changes from you on the forecast?

  4. I think we got to watch what happens. At this point I would say MINOR snow event (under 4 inches) with places that see snow. Whatever happens I don’t see a Major Storm here although a couple inches I guess would be considered Major with the winter we are having. One thing looks certain a cold day on tap Sunday with highs in the 20s but as been the case this winter the cold blast is short lived and we warm right back up to the 40s by mid week.

  5. Melissa on BZ called for a high of 45 today and 48 tomorrow. For Sat, she said a few inches are “possible.”

  6. Gfs has 45-50 all next week, I think it may even be to warm for snow sat, it really don’t think it will be anything, this is a nonevent with as little as a sugar coating to just a couple inches, March is 19 days away!!!

    1. Scott/Hadi, what do you think the snow ratio will be? To me it looks like Duxbury south could get 6″ but I do not how to figure the ratio or how much will fall as rain at the beginning.

  11. I’m going to wait and see what the 12z NAM and GFS shows before I even think about throwing out numbers.

  12. NWS – ‘HAVE NOTED A TREND TO KEEP BRINGING MORE PRECIP
    INTO THE REGION WITH EACH RUN. STAY TUNED.’
    Will it all fall as snow is the key question???

  14. It depends big time on timing of the storm, the later in the day the more snow. If the cold gets in here quick I do see place in SE mass getting 6+ inches if the QPF verifies. I know JMA has pointed out how bad the NAM has been this winter, but maybe its time it gets something right.

    I am with Scott on waiting and seeing more consistency from the other runs.

  15. From Tim Kelly:
    SurfSkiWxMan SurfSkiWeatherMan
    ECMWF MOS at Weather.us Forecasts 3″ Snow Boston Saturday. Other Models Joined In, NAM 10″ C.Cod twitpic.com/8hly83

  16. Interesting from HPC

    STRONG JET STREAM WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF A STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT
    ANOMALIES OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS PERIOD. THIS FAVORS SPLIT-FLOW
    ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DISTINCT NRN AND SRN STREAM…A MEAN
    TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST…AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
    THE SOUTHEAST. DOWNSTREAM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE THRU D+8 INDICATES AN
    EAST BASED NEG NAO WITH STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY SOUTHEAST OF
    GREEENLAND WITH A TENDENCY TO RETROGRADE THIS SLOWLY WEST. THIS IS
    SUPPORTIVE OF KEEPING LOWER HTS AND COLDER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
    THE LOWER 48 STATES. SUPPORT IS ALSO HERE WITH A WEAKER PHASE 8
    MJO THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY ERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A
    DEEP ERN TROF THIS COMING WEEKEND. LONGER TERM MJO FORECASTS OF A
    SHIFT INTO PHASE 1 ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF BELOW AVG WRN CONUS HTS
    AND NEAR AVG OVER THE ERN THIRD OD CONUS. THIS TREND IS SEEN IN
    THE MODEL DAILIES AND THE CPC D+8 HT ANOMALIES

  17. Do we know if the storm is trying to move more west or is it the precip shield that they think might throw more precip west as the storm bombs out?

  18. I think a little of both, you get that strom to bomb out and QPF will be higher even if the track is not ideal which looks the case here.

    1. Thanks Hadi. I think this may be one of those situations where it’s almost impossible for the models to predict how intense the storm will get and how quickly it bombs. Like someone said a few times yesterday, we have seen this scenerio before and it usually ends up taking us by surprise.

  20. I think the GFS has always been more offshore then the NAM and EURO. I am guessing TK is going with a GFS scenario based on his above blog.

    1. I have all day training starting in a few, so I will be Awol most of the day.
      Hopefully I can check in during some breaks?? I so wanted to see the 12Z NAM before we started. 🙂

  26. The complexity of the set up for this weekend is mind boggling, which is why I don’t have a lot of trust in the models just yet.
    I think at the very least we will see snow showers with the arctic frontal passage.

  36. A good 6-10″ jackpot for NE CT, northern RI, and much of eastern MA with 3-6″ outside of those areas. Mixing coastal RI and the Cape. Terrific run but probably overdone given its the NAM. We’ll need to see the 12z GFS before we get too excited!

    1. if this happens it will be a rain and snow mix with all snow away from the coast . maybe 495 gets a good snow fall. maybe double the amount of snow this year. just to melt by the end of next week. I am just wanting a few inches of snow since i have family coming over saturday.

  39. I have a feeling this storm is actually going to be pushed out to see by the cold front. Think about snow showers putting a few coating . the cape might get an inch or two. It is what i think right now.

  40. I agree coastal…we talked about this the other day so who knows.

    I did post on BZ bc it civial today, but I am sure I will get blasted soon. I posted bc people asked some appropriate questions.

  41. I need to see more model runs but this could be a situation the further east you are in SNE the more the snow you will see.

  48. Quick looks at 9z SRE. It does not share the NAM’s love for this thing.

    .25 or less SE MA and marginal temps there. Dry elsewhere.

  50. JMA isnt the SREF a little less accurate 48+ out? I was under the impression that it was a better tool within 24 hours? Thanks

  51. Morning Break.

    Some comments Regarding this NAM 12Z run. First of all, if I recall correctly,
    the NAM performed very well last year. Although I agree that it has had some
    problems this year, that doesn’t mean we should totally toss it out. I just
    have a feeling on this. My Gut says that this WILL materialize and be that
    sneaky, surprise storm we have been talking about all season long.

    GO NAM!!!!

    Of course, the 12Z GFS will probably have it OTS!!! 🙂
    Would like to see 12Z Euro of course!

  52. 48-84 is not its strength, but it draws heavily from the NAM/WRF and if its significantly out of sync with the OP NAM it tells me that there is issues with the NAM’s output and it showed be viewed with a suspect eye.

    Look-you are going to get all sorts of bullish scenarios. Especially from snow-starved meteorologists who are just like you-WEATHER NUTS! (I say that with all intended affection) Only these starved weather nuts get paid. I am not there right now with this. Law of averages are against me now. I got to blow one here soon…so maybe this is it? However, I still think this ends up being nothing like the NAM is predicting, at least over SNE.

    1. I am siding with you on this one. Yes we may get some very light stress light precip from this. I am not jumping on the nam. Again I want to be wrong. Use caution and wait for next couple of runs.

  53. Hot of the press from NWS at Upton, NY:

    CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL FRI
    NIGHT-SAT ESPECIALLY FOR CT AND LONG ISLAND. LATEST NAM NOW HAS A
    STRONGER SFC LOW PASSING OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT 18Z SAT…
    PRESUMABLY DUE TO A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM TROUGH
    ALOFT TO THE WEST THAT ALLOWS CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO THE
    APPROACHING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO TAKE PLACE CLOSER TO THE
    COAST AND CLOSER TO A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
    IF THIS TREND APPEARS IN OTHER GUIDANCE AND/OR HOLDS WITH LATER
    RUNS…WE COULD EVEN BE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR LONG
    ISLAND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT.

  55. I was jsut going to say that, the interaction with the northern streams looks to be occuring on the 12z GFS.

  60. In relation to the winter we been having…..This will be a wide spread major event……. 2″+ for everyone inside of 495.

  61. With the GFS wetter, I have no choice but to move a chance of rain and snow into the forecast for Saturday, mostly in the daytime hours.

    GFS says temps in Boston will be above freezing. In general, Boston, Worcester, to Springfield .25.40 of QPF. Temps in the low to mid 30’s. Taunton 0.8 QPF but temps in lows 40’s at onset so some there will fall as rain.

    1. Right like gas up the snow blower and hit the grocery store for bread and milk! 🙂

      This is going to be glorious!

      1. Old Salty – they are casting in MA for actual fishermen for a movie (I think on the pirate episode) and said they are looking for “Old Salty types” I got a chuckle when I heard it on the news this morning!

  71. I said earlier this would be a level 1 snow event 4 inches or less. I am waiting to see a few more model runs to see if this needs to be upgraded or not.

  72. Noon on BZ, said we “could” get 3″ north of pike; 6″ SE MA; 6+” Cape.

    Lot of emphasis on the words “possible” and “could.”

      2. Not very Vicki. Case in point right here – he has developed a snow map that appears to be based solely off of one run of the NAM model. Need more consistency of the model runs before we can buy into a foot of snow anywhere. Nevertheless, even the GFS seems to agree on the potential for up to 6″ in those same areas.

    2. I’m still not on board with this. I want to the next run and more. If this were to happen it sounds like last storm with south shore and cape getting the brunt. If this were to happen and cape gets hit, they could end the winter with more snow than boston. There was a winter when the cape got hit all season, maybe like 12yrs ago.

  74. I just dug out my snowman socks and am wearing them. Before you take that lightly, I was given them before Christmas last year and wore them all season (washing them each time of course!). Last time I wore them was just before last Halloween –

    see where I’m going with this 🙂 Do not underestimate their power. I had people threatening to burn them last year so had to hide them.

  75. I don’t see a foot of snow. I think IF everything pans out this is going to be a case where the further east you are in SNE the more snow you will see.

  76. The potential seems to be there for a big storm on Sat. – or is it just wishful thinking?

    According to this link I found, it looks like that w/the exception of maybe southern MA it doesn’t look like much precip. Even to the south. Now, I could be reading this wrong – just guessing on my part. I made the image “loop” for Sat. ( I am presuming it’s this coming Sat.!)

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php

        1. Don’t know how current those maps are. They seem
          to be old.

          There is POTENTIAL for a big storm Saturday, but potential does not always equate to reality. We are
          lookinga t computer models. Time will tell.

          We continue to watch successive model runs for more
          clues, but so far the “TREND” is to more snow.

          1. Thanks, Old Salty! Well, I’m having fun learning, anyway. I’m kind of like a kid looking at these maps and models and making them loop around and trying to guess. I guess I would never have made a good met.! 🙂

            1. I got one thing right yesterday when I looked at a map and was dancing around the house like a kid at Christmas. My dog thought I’d finally lost it!

    1. I feel badly too – trolls do that – they end up staying and force people out who shouldn’t have had to leave

      1. I just checked it out – Dave_D and I have disagreed on the other BZ blogs (non-weather topics) but never with lack of respect. Not sure if someone wants to look into getting him here. He seems very interested in learning. Just a thought

  78. Vicki – hope your socks do the trick! When I was younger my mother used to make a vanilla layer cake w/white frosting and a chocolate glaze. For a few yrs. every time she made it it would snow – I called it Snowtime Cake. Maybe I should start baking?

      1. She usually made that cake in the fall/winter – not the summer. My mother doesn’t bake as much anymore, but when she used to – she was great at baking. In the warmer months she made a lot of pies. Great memories.

  80. From WeatherWizard’s latest blog. He has an “early call” map up on his blog with all of SNE in the 4″+ accumulation zone.

    “This event has so many players, but we have seen situations like this in the past year or two where these lows trend more west up until the day of the event. And this is going to be no different as models continue to catch on to the stronger southern stream system. As this system continues to trend stronger notice the coastal front across the Southeast increases convection. The more the convection increases the more heat we throw at the heights along the Eastern US. Plenty of instability along this front will continue to be shown and more impressive each run with the more impressive advection/diffluence patterns the models are trending towards. ”

    http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=850&Itemid=179

    1. Not impressed with the EURO, maybe just having a hard time adjusting to the trends? We’ll give it a break till the 0Z run. One thing is for sure, the EURO has been the most consistent with this system for a couple days now, just brushing extreme SE MA, Cape, and Islands with a couple inches of snow.

    1. They also stated if the storm were by chance to come closer it would be a rain/snow matter to sort out.

    2. With it being in the mid 50s tomorrow and Saturday am was to still be warm with the cold coming in the afternoon .We could end up with very little in which is the way I am going. The storm they are saying would come in around dawn where the temps still may be warm. We could just miss out because of timing. But than again I may be wrong. As far as ch 7 goes, Pete has been right all winter.

  85. Its a waiting game now. The thing now is do we see snow showers with the front coming through or an accumulating snow on Saturday.

  86. Euro has system mostly off shore with some snow in Boston area.
    We’ll see if it comes around on later runs. I want to see the 18Z NAM and GFS
    and MORE importantly, the 0Z NAM, GFS and Euro.

    Here is the 12Z NOGAPS:

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_12z/f60.gif

    12Z Canadian:

    http://grib2.com/gem/CONUS_GEM_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_66HR.gif

    12Z UKMET:

    http://grib2.com/ukmet/CONUS_UKMET_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_60HR.gif

    I think we need additional runs. This could end up as the big one, but there is
    also PLENTY of bust potential with this as well. Clearly something to watch.

    1. Do you agree with the warm air. I had thought I heard Saturday was to start warm and than crash in the afternoon. So at the start of this storm it just may be to warm.

        1. I just can’t be sucked into what the runs are saying. I want to buy into it as I want a big storm but I just can’t.

  87. ECMWF much lighter, but I have made a living of discounting the ECMWF inside 60 hours, just as much I have discounting the NAM’s QPF and Cold.

    I still think the front kicks this thing further south and east, just as I thought 10 days ago, but have to go with a more robust scenario than I was thinking just 12 hours ago.

    1. Could the southern stream become dominate and slow down the east progression of the front and act as a fire starter for the low off the coast?

  88. Great points about temps. You guys are doing an amazing job just not swallowing the model output verbatim. It is awesome to see!

    1. JMA- I don’t want to sound like the one who does not want snow because I do. Tomorrow will be warm and we start saturday above freezing. They say the storm comes at dawn and goes through the daylight hrs. But the big question is what time on Saturday does that cold air come crashing in. It will not be that cold for the first half of Saturday. Warm start frigid by night time.

      1. John, I think the onset of the precip, at this point at least, will come in later in the day. I may be wrong on that though.

        3. I had thought I had heard storm would come in at dawn, and be done by night time. Clearly to warm if the day temp is right. If this thing were to start saturday night we would be looking at a different story.

          1. Timing will definately become an issue as we get closer. I’m sure it will be fine tuned by a couple hours either way. I’m hoping later though!

            2. I’m hoping later too. I don’t mind missing my John Adams event for snow but if I can do both it would be GREAT! Plus of course colder later

  89. 47F at Logan, up 2F the last hour. Dewpoints in the low teens. I’ve been zapped by static electricity no less than a dozen times today.

  92. Here is Grey, Maine take on the storm, going with a GFS solution

    SATURDAY STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS THE GFS NOW
    PICKING UP ON A TREND SEEN IN THE ECMWF YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
    PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND STALL AS LOW PRESSURE
    DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
    BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. ALL MODELS NOW BRINGING THIS SYSTEM CLOSE
    ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BRUSH SOUTHERN SECTIONS…MAINLY
    SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE PASSED ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
    NAM AND HAVE SHADED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS ALMOST
    IDENTICAL TO LAST NIGHTS ECMWF AS FAR AS TRACK AND QPF. CURRENTLY
    LOOKING AT AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
    INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MID COAST MAINE.
    WITH THIS TREND ALSO LOOKING FOR WARMER HIGH TEMPS..ESPECIALLY IN
    SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A 5 TO 7 DEGREE JUMP. EXPECT
    TEMPS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 20S IN THE NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
    30S IN THE SOUTH.

    1. Which one of us Weather NUTS do you mean? And yes, I tend to hit that
      refresh often! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  97. Can people picketting in a drum line with whistles be anymore more annoying, there were kids across the street trying to study in the library and couldn’t, they were standing outside asking them to please stop, I guess it was some sort of union haha what a joke 🙂

  98. The 18z NAM, like the 12z, will probably be too cold and too wet.

    CPC’s 6-10 is a furnace for New England and 8-14 is still showing above normal temps.

      1. Nah. No party pooper. Just trying to keep things real. I would love a Saturday storm. 🙂

        It’s mixed though. 1) It would make my initial call about 10 days ago look good. 2) It would make my back-off forecast a few days ago look bad. 3) I can’t think of a #3 right now. 🙂

  103. Not to be another party pooper, but I just took a look at the
    text discussion of the NWS at Gray, ME. Here is an excerpt, and all you need
    to see:

    HAVE PASSED ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
    NAM AND HAVE SHADED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS ALMOST
    IDENTICAL TO LAST NIGHTS ECMWF AS FAR AS TRACK AND QPF.

  105. Pete B has a jackpot of 3-5″, 1-3″ everywhere else…
    I think it’s a bit too early to be issuing these.

    1. It would be nice to see the GFS and Euro start kicking out the same or similar QPF as the NAM. We’ll see what the 18Z GFS has to say, but more importantly, the 0Z NAM, GFS and Euro. 🙂

          1. Hmm,

            the whole link doesn’t want to come out.
            IF you COPY and then Paste the link into another browser page, it will come out.

            Sorry

    1. I am getting a bunch of your posts in awaiting moderation .. apparently a different email address.

  107. if i was to say anything about this storm right now that it will be like the last winter storm we had with alot towards the south coast with lot less once you get to the pike.
    snow scale
    non event 1 or less
    light event 1-4 inches
    moderate 4-8
    heivy 8-16
    blockbuster 16+
    right now thinking of a mainly light event but with areas of moderate across southeast mass away from the coast.

  109. Updated discussion from NWS. They are siding with the GFS which pretty much splits the difference between the Euro and NAM:

    CONSENSUS LOW TRACK WILL BE JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK…ALTHOUGH
    NAM IS ALONG THE NW ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGING HEAVY QPF
    EVENT TO SNE WITH SIGNIFICANT INTERIOR SNOWS BUT ENOUGH BL WARMING
    FOR MORE RAIN ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THAT MID LEVEL TROF IS
    PROGRESSIVE WITH POSITIVE TILT WE MOVED AWAY FROM THE NAM AND
    GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS WHICH WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM
    AND FURTHER OFFSHORE ECMWF. HOWEVER…THERMAL PROFILE AND QPF
    AMOUNTS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF.

    BASED ON THE GFS…AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL /3-6″/ WOULD BE LIKELY
    SAT WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR AND EWD ACROSS INTERIOR
    SE MA. LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NW AND ALSO LESS ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS
    WHERE BL WARMING MAY RESULT IN A MIX OR RAIN…ESPECIALLY OVER
    THE ISLANDS. OF COURSE THIS IS ALL TRACK DEPENDENT AND A SHIFT IN
    THE AXIS OF MAX SNOWFALL AND RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE IS POSSIBLE.
    IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MANY GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NW OF
    OPERATIONAL RUN WITH HEAVIER QPF SO THERE IS STILL TIME FOR A NW
    SHIFT BUT PROBABLY NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE NAM. THERE IS A DECENT
    BANDING SIGNAL WITH THIS STORM…ALTHOUGH BRIEF…SO THERE IS A LOW
    PROB OF SOME LOW END WARNING AMOUNTS. GUSTY N WINDS WHICH MAY REACH
    ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST SAT EVENING AS THE
    STORM PULLS AWAY.

        1. Quite FAR OFF SHORE!!! Perhaps 1-3, 2-4 tops
          almost up to Boston.

          So, WHY oh WHY the disparity in Models only 48 hours
          out from event. They both can’t be right.

          Given track record of TK and JMA, most likey scenario
          is the big BOOT OTS!! 🙂
          BUT, we can stil WISH for NAM solution.

          Let’s see if NAM is still as BULLISH with 0Z run. lol

  111. Does anyone else notice how the EURO hasn’t budged at all from the solution it came up with a couple days ago. Same track, same intensity, same features, same 1-3″ swiping for extreme SE MA locations with just a few snow showers for the rest of the area? Not saying I want this to happen, but can’t ignore the consistency.

  112. Pete B. said he just looked at some “new info” from his favorite model, the one he is basing his forecast on, and says 3-5” may be too much. I wonder which model this is??? 😉

        1. When I first started working outside yrs ago he had so many blown forcasts. He would say one thing and It would do another. I started to pay more attention to Harvey as he was more right than wrong. I also was a fan of Todd Gross. My oppinion is that the ch5 weather team is real good. Mike W.lives down this way in Scituate and has 2 houses. One for him and one for family. He does some live shots down here during storms from the family home. A friend of mine is his neighbor and said he is a very good handy man. I do like pete as his forcasting has been much better.

          1. Hmmm I’ve been following him since before Gross left and he’s been as accurate as others and sometimes more.

  113. I agree AceMaster, and the 18z GFS is fairly consistent with the Euro. It keeps that double barrel low theme but really strengthens the low further out over the ocean as the primary system. Most of the energy is well off shore. The NAM wants to crank the primary low up much closer to the shore, but even on the last run, you see the other pocket of energy hanging way out in the middle of the ocean. I just don’t think this storm is going to fully get its act together soon enough, or close enough to be a huge deal.

  114. NWS – THERE IS A DECENT BANDING SIGNAL WITH THIS STORM
    How big of a playing could banding be if or wherever it occurs?

  116. For 2+ weeks now, our area has seen a trace of precip total. I’m thinking this had some impact on the relative humidities today and the resulting dewpoints in the single digits and low teens.

    If it were to snow 4-6 inches Saturday at temps near 30F to 32F, that would imply to me that there’s an expectation of around .5 QPF……… I dont see that from a storm that appears to be too offshore and with moisture having to enter a region, that I believe is showing some microscale symptoms (today’s dewpoints) of drought. I think we might lose some moisture to just moistening up what is becoming an increasingly drier and drier local airmass.

    I think 1-2 inches and I think we’ll be watching a radar Saturday that shows precip that looks good south of New England, that falls apart or weakens as it heads northeast over our area.

    2. Tom very well put. Harvey is leaning that way just would not say for sure. It also looks to start as rain for us Tom. I listed above two different temps for the saturday high and low. One was from NOAA and other from the weather ch.

      1. Some precip of any kind would be nice…………Today, to me, had to be one of the most beautiful days. I love 100% sunshiny days with positively no clouds in the sky.

          1. I like that mall down there…….got to love the mall snowpiles…….Up in Lowell, use to enjoy going by the Market Basket parking lot after a big snowstorm just to check out the enormous piles. In a good winter, the piles get ridiculously tall, then eventually wide. Seen a few of these type piles last into parts of April.

            1. It is very nice there as they have everything. This pile was small though Tom. I suspect from last night as I think they had a touch of very light snow.

            2. There loosing spaces with those piles but saving money. It cost big time money to bring in a snowmelter.

  117. Ironic how great the nam was last year and how poorly it has performed this year, same model 180 degree difference.

    1. Don’t like it’s portrayal of the PV, think it over-phases, does its typical over-forecasting of precip., and keeping in mind its frequent error this winter of being too cold/wet.

    2. IF it stays the same, and is eventually in line with the other models at 24 hours or less from the start of precip., I’ll start to believe in it more, still with some reservation.

    1. Questions still linger is what Harvey said but again he suspects we will be on lower end of 2-6. Sure would like it to be on the higher end.

  121. I am thinking this will be a MINOR snow event (4 inches and under). I hope I am wrong but that is what my gut is telling me.

    1. I hear ya JJ. This storm is coming in early and is going to run into problems with the warm air in place. I wish It would come at night and have the right setup.

    3. It seems a good forecaster bases forecast on the computer models with some gut thrown in. And when it gets this desperate just cause we want it to be so gets tossed in too :))

  124. This storm is to unpredictable we need everything to line up perfectly inorder to even have a chance of a decent snow fall.

    friday mostly sunny highs in the mid 40s( you will think what snow how is it even being talked about.
    friday night becoming cloudy lows in the mid to upper 20s
    saturday there is still uncertanty of the storm. Right now i say light snows with up to a few inches being possible.WE need to watch the cold front.
    saturday night bitter short lived artic blast. lows in the low 20s becoming clear and windy. snow ending every where
    sunday one of the coldest of the year with highs struggling to reach 20 in the teens. with really cold temps . wind chills could be below Zero
    sunday night cold, windy but clear with a low in the single digits to below zero
    monday highs in the upper 20s
    monday night lows in the low 20s and partly cloudy
    tuesday becoming cloudy with highs in the upper 30s
    tuesday night cloudy watching another storm stystem. which looks warmer but might start out as snow
    wednesday ???
    wednesday night???
    thursday. much warmer with highs in the mid 40s
    nam i think is way over board with the amount of water in the snow. some areas in southeast mass up to boston could get 1 to 1.5 inches of water in snow form.if it was to varify. i am thinking much less with snow showers across most of mass with steadier snow in areas south of the pike towards the cape and islands

  125. Coastal you would crack up on the BZ blog, you are the number 1 troll :). What an honor that is bestowed on you!!

        1. I know who is posting that. Its CapeAnnGuy and Ants_SNEweather (Anthony Siciliano and Peter Lovasco). I called them out for being model huggers on twitter and they went off on me like a married couple.

  132. If I am reading the total QPF correctly CT RI and Southeastern MA look to get the most amount of snow with amounts dropping the further north you go.

  133. There are 2 amateur sites on FB that have issued forecast maps calling for widespread 6-12 inches including all of eastern MA.

    Needless to say, I’m nowhere near agreeing with them.

    2. Kevin from fox is saying 2-5 for south shore and has less right now for the cape. He did say may include cape in the 2-5. Just the storm is to of shore.

  141. Can’t say I’m surprised that the NAM has backed off. It’s still got that double barrel low with the bulk of the energy way off shore. Much like the GFS, it now has the primary low forming closer to Bermuda than the east coast. What I am surprised is that it still drops a good 4-8″ of snow on us here in CT, as well as LI, RI, and parts of SE MA. I’d love that to verify but I’m pretty sure it’s still overdone. I’d ask TK for his opinion on that but I think I already know what the answer will be!

  142. From the NWS in Upton NY.
    00Z MODEL UPDATE…THE NAM IS JUST COMING IN. IT APPEARS IT COULD
    BE AN OUTLIER FROM THE 12/18Z RUNS…BUT FURTHER ANALYSIS NEEDED.

  144. Due to the snow being mainly on the light side Sat am-3pm I think that mid Feb sun also minimizes impact. If it does accumulate it will be mainly on car tops and grassy surfaces, Fridays 50 deg will keep the ground warm.

    1. The ground warmth must be taken into account. Also the intensity of the precipitation, and the amount of precipitation before the front gets here. Would not surprise me if Boston is rain or mix until nearly noontime Saturday and only has a few hours of snow during the daylight before any accumulating precip is gone.

    2. Lows Friday night across much of the interior are forecast to be in the upper 20’s to near 30 with highs Saturday near freezing. I don’t think the ground warmth is going to be as much of a factor.

      1. The ground holds a fair amount of warmth. Cold air has been very short lived. 2 days of full sun also will be a factor on ground with no snowcover. Not a major factor, but a factor nonetheless.

  145. This double barrel low setup is perplexing. One model run wants to strengthen the low closer to the coast, giving us more qpf ,while the next strengthens the low that’s further out towards Bermuda. The NAM and GFS keep flip flopping on this. They are really struggling with the timing/interaction of something. TK, any insight on which wins out? I don’t think we are going to get a good handle on this until the 12z runs tomorrow.

  146. Hey TK…there is a “Weather Fan” over on Melissa’s blog that specifically asked for you and Hadi. He/she I believe wishes to join us over here. The name is not familiar to me.

    I will leave the rest up to you TK (and/or Hadi) in terms of contact. 🙂

  147. Also Pete Bouchard on his 11:00 pm newscast mentioned the possibility of snow lingering around eastern MA well into Saturday evening. I was at work for his 6:00 pm newscast, but I get the feeling it is a change based on new information.

Comments are closed.