Wednesday February 23 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)

108 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

A preview of spring today with very mild air over the region, although with a lot of clouds as we await a cold front. This front comes through with little fanfare today other than its wind shift. Tonight, the cold air drains in from Canada and becomes established through Thursday as high pressure builds over eastern Canada. And in classic New England fashion we’ll be dealing with a winter storm by the early hours of Friday, and then throughout the day into early Friday night, as low pressure coming out of the Midwest tracks just south of us, with cold air in place for a largely or completely frozen precipitation event. The wild card and biggest question to answer with this upcoming system is how much warm air will be involved aloft to change the snow to sleet and cut down the total accumulation. This is almost a certainty south of I-90 and especially toward the South Coast, where even some rain may get involved in the system as it makes its closest pass. This will be reflected in the accumulation amounts in the detailed forecast that follows this discussion. The system moves away Friday night, leaving us with a breezy and cold weekend with dry weather Saturday and a snow shower threat Sunday as a reinforcing cold front moves through the region.

TODAY: Cloudy morning. Increasing sun afternoon. A brief rain shower possible late morning to early afternoon. Highs 57-64, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW by late-day.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine dimmed by high cloudiness at times. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast with snow, except changing to sleet in some areas mainly south of I-90 and possibly mixing with rain along the South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow during the evening. Expected snow accumulation 1-3 inches Nantucket, 3-5 inches remainder of South Coast, 5-10 inches elsewhere, Clearing overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Temperatures below normal. Watch for 1 or 2 disturbances with precipitation threats.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

The overall pattern continues to look colder than normal with another storm threat potential at some point.

108 thoughts on “Wednesday February 23 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So it all boils down to how much sleet gets involved. Very touchy. Will be watching model trends, but this set up is ripe for sleet. A wintry day Friday regardless. I am thinking about 5 or 6 inches here before sleet and perhaps an inch or 2 after. Thinking total accumulation of 8 inches or so seems reasonable. Likely more impactful than a foot of powder.

    1. I’m thinking whatever we get will not be the light stuff we have been able to sweep away in a couple of the other storms.

      I am guessing 8 for here

  6. Not a lot of buzz for this storm given 8-12” or more are on the table for many. Is it bc there’s the potential for a not all snow scenario? Or recency bias coming off a top 10 storm?

  9. Thanks, TK.

    The fact that most of the snow will fall during daylight hours will cut down on its impact on roads significantly. Had this been mid January, it would be a different story.

  10. Walked the shore and it was nice but certainly a little breezy.

    I think here in Swampscott we could easily reach mid-60’s and just as easily see a 40 degree drop by early AM tomorrow.

  15. 12Z NAM wants to bring SLEET just about to Central VT and NH!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2022022312&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    NAM clearly is the warmest solution and shows the intrusion of warm air aloft for sure.

    Kuchera snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022022312&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Brings RAIN to parts of SNE as the redevelopment takes place too far North. This is my greatest fear with this system.
    Does NOT mean the NAM is correct, but it is a trend we need to watch.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2022022312&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow

  16. Here is the 12Z RDPS showing the Northern extent of the warm air intrusion aloft and thus the sleet as precipitation type:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype&rh=2022022312&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Here is the total Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2022022312&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I would still go with a general 6-10 inch snow totals with perhaps some isolated higher totals. 8-12 is over done imho. We shall see.

    1. Probably due to school vacation week. Many of us are stuck with, er….I mean, spending time with the kids

  27. Thanks TK.

    Extremely busy at work this week and next so haven’t been posting as much as I normally would with an impending winter storm.

    There’s no question in my mind we are flipping to sleet here in CT and I am also not high on much if any accumulation after the switch back to snow. I do think we can pull off 5 or 6” though in the up front thump which looks pretty impressive.

    Along and north of “Vicki’s latitude” though, I think the sleet changeover is shorter in duration and there is a good chance for some additional accumulation with the inverted trough after the change back to snow.

    Big question is how far north that changeover line gets. Wouldn’t surprise me if it approaches Rte 2 even if briefly. NAM is a bit of a red flag even if it is way too far north.

    1. Awww. I like having my own latitude. Thank you

      It seems you and I tend to have similar outcomes. I worried.

        2. I hope it is NOT onto something. But the sad fact is, it could very well be. Time will tell.

          I was encouraged to see the ICON come in colder and
          farther South.

    1. I sure hope you are correct.

      As SAK said, the NAM is usually the colder model and often
      the GFS is the warmer. Just the opposite today. 🙂

    1. As that is a 10:1 ratio map, half (or more) of that snow shown in CT/RI/SE MA is falling as sleet/mix. I would cut those totals south of the Pike in half.

  34. FWIW … Last winter (I think it was) we had a very similar set-up to this, and the NAM was the only model bringing sleet that far north – and it was also the only model that ended up being correct.

    At this point, I think the truth lies between the NAM & the average of the other guidance. This version of the NAM is typically colder but is insisting on that significant but thin warm layer, as SAK noted above. That concerns me too and is also one of the reasons I went “5-10”, shying away from the foot and leaving the broader range. There’s still time to refine those ranges since this thing doesn’t get underway until the wee hours of Friday.

  35. Thanks TK. I agree with your thoughts. Haven’t looked too closely at things up that way, but I like the idea of favoring the NAM, but not quite all the way in it’s direction.

  37. Also, impressive warmth in the East today! Some big beats on daily and even some monthly high temperature records happening pretty much up and down the coast!

    1. What was that you said about the return of the SE ridge in Feb? 😉 It may not be super dominant in terms of our temps up here in New England, but it definitely makes announcements about its presence from time to time!

      The very existence of this ridge is part of the reason that I give attention to the NAM on this one – again not that I believe it has THE solution, but I believe it has an idea of something other guidance hasn’t picked up on (yet), hence my comment above. This reminds me very much of a similar set-up last winter (or the winter before, they blend together haha).

  38. I may be out to lunch, but the NAM seems to sprout the coastal
    farther North than the other models. Thus the sleet moving farther North. What is it seeing that the others are not????

    3. They have been rather dry up there this winter. It’s showing. They’ll get right back to good snowcover over the next couple weeks.

      1. I think I said here a bit ago that my brother said it has been a tough year for many ski areas….either lack of snow or mismanagement. As much as I’d like snow here, if it has to be one or the other, I’ll go for the ski areas

  45. If any model is going to see the sleet, it’s the NAM. Not only is it the highest resolution model, but it also has more layers than the others, so it’s more likely to see a thin warm layer aloft that the others might miss.

    1. Yep and if I recall correctly this is what happened in that other situation I mentioned (want to say last winter, but for whatever reason I can’t recall which date).

  46. I saw a couple of the TV guys.

    Kevin L is definitely leaning toward the NAM – he even mentioned it on the air and said people like to trash it on social media because “it’s terrible”. It was funny listening to that. 🙂

    My favorite of the day is Pete on his 5:45 ‘cast. It was so funny I rewound it and called my son to see it. He was talking about how he put the trash & recycle out a day early by accident and then said “It’s probably all over the neighborhood now … sorry neighbors…” … I love his mid-forecast monologues. Always amusing. 🙂

  47. Even ticks are confused by the weather. And I absolutely know they are out year round. However, we have never had a dog pick them up in the yard before May.

  48. Ski conditions have been all about location so far this season. Places like Killington have had a phenomenal year. Far northern and southern areas, not so much.

    2. I would not quite say phenomenal, at least in comparison to other years. I believe they have only had one four day stretch where they were 100% open. I was there one of those days and the natural terrain trails were still quite thin and the base in the woods is not deep for this time of year. They are hurting even more after the last two rainstorms and warmups.

      That said, yes…Killington and points north have done way better than the southern VT mountains this year.

    3. That is what my brother said also. Sad for those that are not on the good side of snow. Furious with those that are mismanaged

  51. Friend of mine in Montreal said it was like an ice rink outside today and quite cold. What a difference 300 miles makes. We’re talking 45-50 degree difference in temperature this afternoon between Boston and Montreal.

  53. Unconfirmed reports suggest a full-scale invasion is underway in Ukraine, including in the city of Mariupol. The sounds in this video could be thunder rather than explosions on the outskirts of the ciry, as it is raining in the area (but thunder is rare in winter, as we know). https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496653496116035584

    Other videos show tanks on the move west from Donetsk, using secondary roads rather than going through the muddy fields and woods.

    1. Senator Marco Rubio is more or less confirming the massive invasion is underway. The sounds on the video were not thunder. They were explosions in and near the port of Mariupol. According to Rubio’s latest tweet:

      In the hours to come #Russia will
      -conduct strikes on air defense systems
      -move to cut off #Kyiv from eastern #Ukraine
      -move to cut off Ukraine’s military forces on the line of contact in the east to prevent them from falling back to defend Kyiv

  54. Hope everyone is good . I been busy doing field and lab work this week looking at seagrass and invertebrates, documenting urchin disease and getting frustrated with R ( if anyone is good with R. Let me know lol) so naturally today I took a break and went on a boat to deploy a hurricane glider and I took some time this evening make some maps with my predictions for Thursday/Friday storm. I wish I was able to hit the ski slopes but it seems like ski country is having trouble with the lack of natural snow so not missing much.
    https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1496671648283566082
    https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1496653374061789191/photo/1
    Tricky part of the forecast for this upcoming storm is how far north the sleet goes as everyone on here has been talking about. Right now I think it gets some where between RT2 and MA boarder.

    1. The question is what will our response be? Can the rest of the world sit back and let Putin do this? We’re going to see what Biden is made of.

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