Friday February 25 2022 Forecast (7:25AM)

183 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

A winter storm is in progress now and there are no huge changes, just a few adjustments, to the most recent forecast leading into this. As low pressure heading for NY State redevelops and moves out just south of New England, we’ll be in its heaviest precipitation swath this morning, which then tapers off somewhat this afternoon with a little back-lash before it departs tonight. We’ve seen the warm air aloft come in already along the South Coast where accumulations will be lightest, much of the snow having already fallen except what takes place later today / this evening as things get cold again. Further north it’s all snow so far but that snow to sleet line will work up into the I-90 belt with time, and eventually northward from there, but after the heaviest precipitation is starting to move out, before the line heads back to the south later and the lighter precipitation later falls in the form of snow. So only a little minor tweaking to take into account the quicker warming near the South Coast brings the expected snow amounts to around 1 inch over the islands and 1-3 inches at the South Coast, least at the beaches, 3-6 inches southeastern MA across much of RI and eastern CT, and 6-10 inches from the the I-90 belt northward with a spot amount or two above 10 inches possible. After this moves out, we’ll have a quiet but fairly cold stretch of weather for the last few days of February and the first of March, the coldest days being Saturday and Monday, and the only chance of any additional precipitation being snow showers with a cold front on Sunday.

TODAY: Overcast. This morning moderate to heavy snow I-90 region northward eventually turning to sleet near I-90 and mixing some some areas to the north, while areas south of I-90 become mostly sleet with some rain closer to the South Coast and over Cape Cod and the Islands. This afternoon additional lighter snow to the north, a break then some snow showers to the south. Highs ranging from near 25 southwestern NH and north central MA to near 40 Cape Cod. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 9-14. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near 0.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Temperatures below normal. Watch for 1 or 2 disturbances with precipitation threats.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

Temperatures near to below normal. A couple additional precipitation threats.

183 thoughts on “Friday February 25 2022 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  2. Good morning g and thank you TK.

    I think we can score one for the NAM.

    About 3-4 inches here and accumulating rapidly. How much can we total before the sleet takes over?

    Can Logan score enough snow to exceed the seasonal average?

    Who ever said it couldn’t snow in an above average temp pattern???

    Did someone say there would be a SE ridge, but with cold intrusions?

  3. Thanks TK. Mix of sleet and snow here in North Attleboro. When the heavier precipitation comes through like now, there is more snow visible but still hearing the sleet hit the window screens.

    1. the warm layer is supposed to be fairly thin. Thus when precip is heavier, the bigger flakes don’t melt, but the smaller ones do. Also, it is fluid, so cold air gets mixed in with the warm, so some flakes make it through the layer, at least until the layer is firmly established.

      1. If this intensity persists, I can’t see sleet being able to establish itself if that warm layer is thin. Radar doesn’t appear to be letting up so…maybe it can stay snow?

        1. NWS yesterday in their discussion said that heavy snow can sometimes delay the arrival of the warm layer.
          Let’s see how long a delay we get, if any. 🙂

    1. it is HEAVY!
      Snowing at about 2 inches per hour here.

      We’re up to at least 5 inches and counting rapidly.
      The race is on.

  9. Thanks TK,
    I always find being right on the line between sleet and snow fascinating. You can tell exactly what’s going on upstairs and can see the battle of air masses in the size and type of the flakes minute to minute. We had a mix here with some sleet around 6:00 briefly and has since changed back over to heavy snow, and piling up quickly.

  10. Up to 30 here in JP with EAST wind! Not too far inland, the wind
    is NE. If we had a little more temperature contrast, I’d say we had a classic coastal front, but temps inland are only a little bit lower.
    30 at Logan, 30 at Norwood and 25 at Bedford. It is 21 at 1,000 foot Worcester.

  13. Heavy sleet here in Coventry CT…started to hear it pelting against the window around 6am. Only were able to muster about 4 hours of snow. Haven’t measured yet.

  15. Something is happening? The cold air making a stand?
    Worcester has dropped from 21 to 19.
    Wind at Logan has backed slightly to a little North of East
    and all reporting stations away from the coast are solidly
    NE wind.

    1. Secondary development ??

      FWIW, Marshfield airport OB still has 0.5 mile visibility, making me think it’s still snowing there.

      Ok, beach and 70F+ morning temp calling. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  16. Thank you, TK

    A quick measure of 5” here also. It sounds like frozen snow as it makes more of a sleet sound as it hits the ground.

    I asked yesterday and May well have missed the answer. Is south central MA included in your southeastern numbers?

    1. Sounds like there is some melting aloft, but the precip is still
      making it as snow, but the flakes are partially melted.

  17. Measured about 3” here but not sure how much of that got compressed by the sleet once it changed over after 6am. Temp has held steady at 27 so the low level cold has held its ground.

  23. WPC shows coastal redevelopment in a good location.
    Could this stop the flow of warmth aloft?
    It has been known to do this in the past. We shall see.

    Maybe this thing cranks and gives a huge unexpected backlash????

    1. God or some force of nature is indeed vomiting right now in Back Bay.

      Cool to hear about your son on Channel 4. I’ll check out the video in a moment.

  25. Boston getting closer to normal snowfall for the season with this current storm system. I didn’t think I would be typing that this season. It goes to show you get two big storms which Boston had and the snowfall predictions for the winter that were predicted are going to be off.

  26. Looks like intensity may be slowing a bit on radar. Any updates on timing for sleet? I know most folks on here love snow but a day like this I would love to be Tom’s wingman

  28. Snow intensity just let up considerably here. I don’t see or here
    sleet yet, but the accumulation will slow now.

    1. I am seeing larger flakes also, but radar kinda looks like we might see another stronger snow band unless that is all sleet. Temp is 30.

  29. Fire hose just shut off here. Not snowflakes but not sleet, something in between? Whatever it is it’s very light

    1. I was going to say we are more sleet than snow but it may be what you described here. Daughter just took the puppy out so I’ll see when she comes in.

  30. Still snow for sure here, but very light.

    Watching neighbors shovel. Looks like at least 6 inches, possibly as much as 8

          1. From that, it doesn’t look like much. I looked at the one in Burlington VT and it also didn’t look like much.

  34. Changed to sleet here a little over an hour ago not before dropping 6 1/2 “ here. Heavy sleet at the moment. Temp up about 2 degrees since the changeover to 24 degrees, wind is mostly from the north. I’m not sure if we’ll flip back over to snow before it ends. I’m hoping it does. Seems the forecast is spot on so far.

  35. AND the sleet cometh. I can hear it cracking against my window!
    !@(#*!@)(#*)(!@*#()!@*
    )(!@#)!)(@*#()!*@()#*(!@)
    !)@(&#()!&()@#*()!*@#

      1. Heavier band on radar just about here.
        We shall see if that is enough to let it be snow, or it
        comes down as HEAVY SLEET?????

  39. Thanks, TK

    A “sleetshow” here with 3″ of snow and sleet on the ground.
    30.7º is the temperature.

  44. Peeking in to read and see what everyone is experiencing.

    Noticed one thing on Obs, it is really cold in Portsmouth NH and Portland, ME.

    Temps are going to drop big time when wind turns north. Talk about the top layer becoming concrete like.

    1. Agree 100%

      Up to 33 here in JP and it is very WET snow.
      ONly had a few minutes of sleet mix in as this was primarily a snow event here.

      That cold will be pouring in here soon.

  45. Never changed to sleet here in Sudbury. Snowing lightly here now. Haven’t measured snow but looks like about 5 inches or so, maybe a bit more..

  46. Waiting to see IF there will be some sort of backlash snow
    as the center moves just to our East and cranks up a bit????

  47. Woke up around 11am to sleet hitting the windows. Measured 5.4″ outside. That verifies TK’s 3-6″ for my area, but also the 5-9″ I had forecast for my area. Win-Win!

  50. Check on this radar loop.
    Notice at the end, light snow starts expanding to the West.
    Beginning of some sort of back lash snows?

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?num=40&type=N0Q&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=1&scale=0.48695652173913045&transx=-45.178571428571445&transy=39.01785714285717&severe=0&smooth=0&centerx=354.82142857142856&centery=279.01785714285717&station=BOX&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=0&rand=27430210

          1. From meso west, worcester has .86 qpf so far.
            I presume all snow.
            Currently 20 there.

            They must have recorded 9 or 10 inches I would imagine.

  56. 5.8” in South Sutton. What is falling now isn’t adding to the total. Looks to be pulling away from this area

  58. Very steady accumulating light snow continues to fall here.
    If this keeps up all afternoon like the 3KM NAM shows, then we will pick up another 1-3 or 2-4 inches on top of the 6-8 we have already received.

  60. Watched some noon time mets saying we could add 1-3 more inches before all is done but depends on location.

    Hit 33 degrees in Swampscott. Figuring that will be the high today.

    1. A neighbor has a four wheeler out a bit ago and it was doing some nice slides. Our roads have been plowed only once, but I don’t know about the main roads. Still very fine rain here

  65. I just saw Logan up to 7.2 inches of snow. I believe this puts Boston over 50 inches for the season and means they will have above normal snowfall for the winter season.

      1. Love it! Who would have thought that Boston We see above average snowfall this Winter. Goes to show, you just never know.

    1. Back to light snow here. I shoveled a path to my chair and fire bowl on the deck with tentative plans to sit out a bit later

      1. He did great. I would not have known he was nervous if you had not told us. I would think driving for Lyft would be interesting and they need good people

  71. Boston might add a little to the 7.2 for this storm system. I believe there close to if not a little bit above normal for snowfall for the month of February.

  72. I know no one had above normal snowfall for Boston this winter. It goes to show you if you have two big storms like Boston did the snowfall prediction for the winter is going to be off.

    1. And exactly what people like myself and JMA have said here …

      Forecasting temperature is definitely easier than forecasting snowfall in the longer range.

      All it takes is one or two anomalies.

      1. And who knows, maybe Boston beats Worcester for snowfall? 😉

        Remember, Worcester had to overcome 4.5” prior to this event.

  73. We’re just about up to a fresh new inch of snow and it keeps on snowing, moderately to occasionally steady light.

  75. NWS Boston hinting at a potentially snowy March with this tweet???

    We are not making a long range predictions but, Boston received a total of 38.9 inches for the month of March back in 1993, Just saying

  76. Still snowing lightly here in JP. Not nearly as hard as it was snowing 1/2 hour ago, but still snowing. Looks very Wintry out there.

  78. Here’s the interesting thing about this winter is that it has NOT been mild, at least not in my estimation. Here, I’ll define mild operationally as well above average. December was relatively mild, but not very mild. January was colder than average, I think. February will probably go down as slightly above average, but not mild. We don’t know about March, but from the looks of the beginning of the month it doesn’t look like it will be a mild month either.

    1. Just based on what I felt, I thought that the whole damn Winter was mild. But I am a cranky fuss pot. 🙂

  83. I win the snow jackpot! Highest was 10.5 at Winchester per 4:30 reports. I had 10.7. 😉 That like NEVER happens. 😉

    1. We just went out to shovel. Chase, I didn’t think we had much mixing either (extreme western Arlington), but this stuff is cement!

      1. Very low water content in Woburn. We got to 30 briefly then right back down through the 20s to upper 10s now. We must have been right on the line.

  84. Did lots of shoveling as the crew never showed up at our apartment building. Also cleared off my car and shoveled around it. It’s heavy snow, which means more water content. Of course, everything is heavy compared to several of the storms we’ve had this winter.

    As you all know I’ve enjoyed this winter. Not perfect, but nothing is. It’s had a bit of everything after a slow start. To have so many bright, sunny and cold days, experience some nice-sized snowstorms, have temps often in the teens and sometimes single digits at night, ice over the Charles, and not a lot of rain in between the snowstorms.

    Of course, my wish is for spring to have lots of sunny days in the 60s without too much oscillating and very few raw days. Alas, that’s usually wishful thinking.

  85. A couple of our local TV folks are telling me my snow was wet & heavy. That is not the case. It was dry and fairly light. I shoveled it, and when I’m done melting it down it will prove to be greater than 10:1 ratio.

    1. Perhaps it depends on where you are. It was very heavy here. My son in law who works out regularly said his arms got tired pushing the snow blower.

      I had to remove layers on the deck for a small path to the fire bowl. In past storms I’ve used a broom

      This is the video my daughter took of my SIL…in shorts no less

      https://imgur.com/a/n4zWgF9

      3. Yes, it absolutely depends on where you were. It was definitely wet down there, but they had my area (and areas northwest of me) in a graphic showing heavy and wet. There was a very distinctive shift that was missed by a couple of representations while others got it right.

  87. 3″ of snow/sleet combination was my final report here. It is a dense covering though and is going to take awhile to melt as it looks like the temp may not top 40 here for another week.

    Amazing how we have gotten shafted storm after storm this year. We are running a good 15″ behind what Boston and much of eastern MA have picked up this year. 20 miles too far west on the last couple storms and 20 miles too far south with this one.

  88. Well, Boston is sitting at 51.9″ on the season now. My prediction in the snowfall contest was 54.1″. I am liking my chances. I believe I had the highest guesstimate?

    1. On this date in 1997 they were still quite a distance away from what their final total would be too. 😉

  91. First time since 2017-2018 Boston will have above normal snowfall for the season according to a tweet I saw from Jacob Wycoff.

    1. From a statistical / probability standpoint, one could have used the “Boston almost never sees 4 straight seasons of below normal snowfall” reasoning for going higher for this year. I nearly did that. Looking back to the beginning of records, there are only a couple instances in which Boston came in below normal for 4 straight years. There are several groups of 3 consecutive below normal snow years. 2018-2019 / 2019-2020 / 2020-2021 was the first triple-low in a long time. The past 30 years have been the snowiest of any 30 year period in Boston’s recorded history.

  92. My 10.7 snow melted down to 0.77 inch of liquid. Yep, lower water content, dry snow, as I said yesterday. I’ve been around a while – I can tell. 😉 Definitely NOT wet & heavy up here in Woburn. It was much wetter and heavier in areas to the southwest and south, basically, where the warmer air got in and at least mixing occurred. We never mixed here. In fact, the high temp of 30 was brief, and most of the day was spent between the upper 10s and middle 20s. Ya ain’t getting wet heavy snow with those temps. 😉 And yes, I know I said it also depends on what’s going on aloft. The warm air didn’t make it this far north aloft either.

    1. I was surprised we NEVER went to all sleet here in JP. We had a mix of snow and sleet for about 1/2 hour, then it was back to all snow again.

      Nice little event Not a big storm, but satisfying

      The NAM and HRRR had the sleet a little too far North . I would have to go back and look to see which modek(s)
      nailed it. The NAM had the right idea first, bit as we got closer which did the best? It may have been the gfs

Comments are closed.