Mild Friday, Sideswipe Storm Saturday, Cold Sunday

198 Comments

2:34AM

High pressure holds on for one more day today with fair and mild weather. A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, but rather slowly, as a storm system organizes off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This appears to be a complex development with some questions on the details yet to be answered, but it appears that the bulk of the heaviest precipitation will remain over water south and east of New England as the eventual storm center passes well southeast of Cape Cod during Saturday and Saturday night. The slowness of the cold front will allow enough mild air for precipitation to start as rain from Boston south on Saturday morning to around noon – limiting accumulation of snow there as it will take longer for the cold air to arrive. To the north and west of Boston, where cold air will be in place sooner, lighter precipitation is expected, therefore snow totals will be held down there as well. What this means is that overall accumulations should be mostly minor and low impact, falling during the daylight hours. A few heavier amounts favoring higher elevations southwest of Boston may occur with a few enhanced bands of snow after the cold air arrives. Once the storm is beyond the region, a few snow showers may linger Saturday evening as much colder air finally filters in, setting the Boston area up for a fair, windy, and very cold day Sunday. A frigid start Monday will be followed by a temperature recovery in the afternoon. A return to above normal temperatures is expected by Tuesday, which will also carry the next chance of precipitation – a system that looks minor at this point.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Clouds at dawn & sunset but sun dominating for much of the day. High 46-51. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY  NIGHT: Clouding over. Low 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops Boston southeastward and light mix to snow northwest, then snow all areas in the afternoon, but mostly on the light side, except a few periods of moderate snow possible over higher elevations southwest of Boston. Snow accumulation a general inch or 2, locally 3 or 4 inches possible in the higher elevations southwest of Boston. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N and increasing  to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 10-15. Wind NW 10-15 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 6. High 34.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain or snow showers. Low 29. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 45.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy.  Low 25. High 40.

198 thoughts on “Mild Friday, Sideswipe Storm Saturday, Cold Sunday”

  1. Thanks TK. Were going to have spring today and then winter returns this weekend with some colder temperatures and accumulating snow. This will not be a big storm with the most of the energy remaining offshore with a track southeast of the benchmark. With that said I expect winter weather advisories issued for parts of SNE later today with the highest amounts southeastern parts of MA.
    Snow Index at 1 which is MINOR 4 inches and under. I am keeping an eye on southeastern MA since that area MAY get a little more than 4 inches resulting in a level 2 storm.

  2. Thanks TK.

    How ironic the GFS comes in with a little more QPF then the NAM!!
    NWS calling for widespread 2-4 with some locally higher amounts south of Boston.

  5. The 6z GFS shows .5-.75 Boston south. The 6Z NAM shows .25-.5 for the same area. Taking the QPF from each run and averaging them out between the GFS/NAM it leaves us with .375-.625 of QPF. Not sure how to calculate the snow ratio but if we say 11 to 1 that would give that particular area 4.125″ to 6.875″. So basically a 4″ to 8″ snow event. Several factors I cannot calculate is the starting temps, how much falls as rain at first, the different snow ratio’s during the event which should go higher as it progresses with colder (drier air), warmth of the ground, and basic model error. With that said I think a general 2″-4″ or 3″-6″ is the max potential for this storm. It would be interesting to see the event unfold, latest obs, radar echo’s. What’s great about this is its happening on a Saturday.

    1. Great for most except we have an event we are very much looking forward to attending late Sat. If we have to miss it, I’d rather it be for feet 🙂

  6. I have a party on saturday and having family come over from north central mass. I hope they can make it. how bad are the roads really going to be saturday morning and then late afternoon.

    1. matt, IMO, the roads will be fine in the morning as I think the lighter nature of the snow to start combined with the still relatively warm surfaces from today’s temps will only allow accumulation on the grass and cartops. The late afternoon may be more difficult but not impossible. Plus I think there will be a huge drop off in snow intensity up in that area.

      1. and also areas in my area is suppose to get 2-4 inches so i was wondering if it is going to be a more steady snow which the plows and treatment truck could keep 495 and rt 2 in good conditions so that my grandparents could come. i live right off of 495

  7. a general 2-4 inches across areas east of a line from lawance to worcester to hardford. with areas of up to 6 inches across interior southeast mass and northern RI up to 2 inches west of the line of lawance to worcester to hartford.Also we will need to figure out when the cold comes in and when does the hieviest precipitation falls. Does the cold front push the storm out to sea to quickly to give us anything. snow ratios.There will be a now casting sitiuation.

  8. It will be interesting to see if we get any shifts today, east vs. west!! Coastal nice job breaking it down!!

  9. Nam is running, doubt much of a change at this point!

    I have a hard time reading the SREF precip totals, but they look fairly weak from what I can tell.

  10. I think forecasting this storm will turn into a classic battle of the networks. One will say 2-4 while another will say 4-6, another will say 6+….

          1. Yea it usually is. Sometimes have to deal with that dreaded mix though. I work in Walpole and sometimes it’s raining at home and it’s snowing when I get to work.

            1. I use to work in Norwood, on many occasions there would be a huge difference in snow totals there to my house. It was rather cool watching the snow depth increase as I drove.

  12. But based on JMA and TK we probably should not even care what the NAM says, I would be curious as to what the latest SREF shows.

    1. So where does this want to set up shop??
      It looks like it doesn’t know what it wants to do, which of course
      EAST WINS! 🙂

    1. Look at that glob of blue just off shore, if that is correct and there is a 75 mile shift west, then we are in the money.

  21. I’m afraid 3″ is going to be the “jackpot” with this storm. Someone needs to make another snowmap with 1/2″ increment ranges.

      2. I will never understand how a business as large as CBS has a blog that allows a poster to use any name he wants.

  25. The 12z NAM has higher QPF’s closer to the coast compared to the 06z NAM.
    I’m interested to see what the 12z GFS has to say.
    There is a winter storm watch up for eastern Maine for 7″+.
    May be an interesting now-casting period.

  29. Coastal – my friend who makes his own maple syrup said he usually taps end of Feb to early March. This is as early as he’s ever tapped. He said his tapping season can go from 2 to usually 6 weeks. He’s getting some dry days because of the weather pattern and although it’s typical he seems to feel there are more. It’s hard to say until the season is ended.

    1. It’s such a variable hobby to have. All weather dependent. I hope all the Syrup Makers due well this season.

  30. From NWS: THE MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD OF
    DECENT SNOW GROWTH IN THIS REGION

    How does a model indicate decent snow growth? I am clueless on this?
    Any thoughts?

    Many thanks

  31. To me, this setup is the ultimate paradox. If the storm’s moisture is going to get involved, then the jet stream needs to sharpen up a bit to make that happen. But, if it happens, then thats going to slow down the cold front and the cold air wont make it in for the precip. I just dont think its going to snow much south of Boston and if it precipitates more, then for reasons described above, it will be mostly rain from Boston, points south and east.

    1. Agree Tom. ch5 is saying 3-6 for for this area. Time will tell. I just have a feeling we will see more rain than snow, I suspect we may have very minor snow at the end. Warming up nice out there.

  32. Good morning all! Checking in from the road. No change to my #’s at this point. Have a great day! 🙂

  33. Real quick-

    If I read one more thing from some clueless fool at the NWS about snow growth, banding potential, etc, I am going to jump out my window!

    I don’t think the NAM’s numbers are crazy, but a little high, and not all of this falls as snow and some snow that does won’t stick.

    A general 1-3.” Caveat – A longer lasting heavier period of snow later in the storm on the Cape?

    Still a blown forecast for me as I was going essentially dry with some snow showers 36 hours ago. I think that will verify west and north of Worcester, but a little more robust than I thought for Boston Metro, but still not much.

    1. JMA and/or TK,

      Can you tell us HOW one can determine Snow Growth from the computer models? What is the NWS looking at when they say that?

      Many thanks

  36. I would bet the GFS is jucier then the NAM 🙂

    I would love to know what the NWS talks about with snow growth region?

    1. The GFS seems to want to ignite storm development way more to the
      SOUTH than previous. If we could just get it to come up the coast and
      NOT stay so far off shore.

        1. Look on the left, it says 2/10/12 12 UTC, which is
          the initialization of the run. More to the right is
          Sat 2/12/12 06 UTC, which is the date/time for
          this frame.

          Cheers 🙂

  44. The way I look at this is simple. I received roughly 3.5″ several weeks ago and was able to go sledding with my daughter twice. So I am hoping that I receive at least 4.5″ so we can sled a little more often.

    Hadi/OS, if you had to guess a number for Hanover/Pembroke area, what would it be?

    1. BASED on NAM and GFS, I would say right around 4 or 5 inches or so, give or take a bit. Also depends if there is any rain or mix to start. Also, doesn’t factor
      in any changes to forecast with successive model runs. Ie any further movement in either direction, which of course would change the accumulation.

  45. Dylan on 7 mentioned that she is concerned about a flash freeze tomorrow night caused by dropping temps and increased winds. What is everyone’s thought on that and if so does it mean later in the night or more evening time frame?

    1. That would depends on how much snow falls with temps above freezing.
      My experience with these situations is NO flash freeze. Generally, the
      snow turns from wet to powdery. Perhaps she is expecting that to happen
      instantly? I dunno. My gut is no flash freeze. But I’m no met and could be
      WRONG.

      1. My guess is any surface that has been shoveled but not chemically treated would likely be extremely slippery due to a flash freeze if the precip starts as rain or wet snow for a time. I have a feeling that when one starts shoveling the snow will be fluffy on top but crusty at the bottom. I have no problem with Dylan addressing the possibility. We will see.

        1. Thanks OS and Philip and Scott – I’m sorry – I wasn’t clear – I didn’t have a problem with her saying that. I never have a problem with any of the TV mets since I feel they are all doing their very best.

          I was concerned since we’ll be driving home from the event we are attending.

          Philip – in the past it seems that when it starts as rain followed by slush and then cold brings drier snow that the underneath layer can become very slippery. Perhaps this is not what she means and hopefully that’s what you are all telling me won’t be a concern.

          1. Vicki,

            Whenver we have wet snow and slush and it
            gets colder, it will be slippery. One should always be concerned and very careful when out and about. That is a given.

            It just depends on how wet the snow is and how fast the colder air is drawn in. No matter what
            it will be slippery.

            When I think of flash freeze, I think of
            a total ICEORAMA!! Just not sure we will see
            that, but it will be slippery enough just the same.

            BE CAREFUL 🙂

      1. Good point Scott, I hadn’t thought of that. Come to think of it, I don’t recall dealing with too many flash freezes on windy days…most times no wind is stirring. However, it doesn’t hurt to be extremely cautious walking or driving until you get a feel of surface conditions. They will likely vary with location anyway.

        1. As for the timeframe on any flash freezing…late Saturday evening through Sunday morning. I would say Sunday afternoon should be OK in that regard.

  46. I did notice 2 things from that run, at least on wundermap. The edge of the precip looks like it wants to ever so slightly pinwheel back down toward us once the low makes its closest pass and blows up north of us. Also, that same low looks to be stronger than on previous runs. Does anyone else see that, or am I just grasping at straws?

    1. Hadi…last storm overachieved in Boston as well to an extent. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one does as well.

    1. Hmmm Interesting.

      Pretty much on target. There are more echos than precip on model
      runs, however, the model runs I believe are for what actually falls.
      Many of the echos show up, but NOTHING is reaching the ground.

      So all-in-all, I would venture the guess that it is pretty much right on.

      1. Someone made a comment on FB that the northern a southern precip fields are shown on the models as separate but the radar shows differently.

  50. Henry is thinking someone in eastern or southeastern MA will see 8″…does anyone buy that at this time?

    Henry also says widespread snows for us next week…NOT buying that at this time since it is going to be mild for most if not all of next week.

    1. 8″ is a far reaching stretch unless things rapidly change. As far as next week goes, just noticed on the 12Z GFS that the storm advertised for the 17-19th has gone POOF!

    2. Not sure what to think Philip. All the mets seem to be sticking with a 3-6 for the south shore less at cape. This reminds me of last storm. The heavy snow was to be in the south shore and less on cape, but the cape had the most snow from that storm. The thing that worrys me the most is the warm air in place now and for the first half of tommorow. I feel that this will start as rain and the warm air and cold air trying to battle this out. 2-4 boston, 3-6 for south shore 1-3 for cape cod is what Mike W. just said. To start around 4am and get cranking around 10am. Time will tell I guess.

  51. On the nooncasts basically the tv mets are saying 2-4″/3-6″ range throughout eastern sections of MA. I wouldn’t be totally surprised at a 6-8-inch “sweet spot” somewhere though…there usually is in these situations assuming things come together of course.

  53. We shall watch radar and see how this all plays out I think the models are locked into a solution so now it’s watching what really occurs.

    1. I would think some kind of advisory will be issued for the south. The rain and to start warm Hadi just concearns me. What is your thinking on that. I think if anything we finish on the lower end.

  57. a wide spread 2-6 inches across eastern mass
    0-2 inches in centeral and western mass.
    what a storm for novia scotia/ and coastal maine

  59. I think the warmth will be beat out by the temps tonight, I think its an issue but nothing too major on totals.

      1. slight, less than 10% I think. But it’s strange that it’s the only place with at least a chance. I have a gut feeling the storm’s precip shield may back into the north shore as its passing by and intensifying.

  61. I have concerns that it will be raining at 5-6am changing to sleet and some snow by mid morning, I wouldn’t expect more than 2 maybe 3 inches, plows will not be needed

  63. TK is right. This will be a sideswipe. But, Brad Marchand country (NS) will be hit hard. Too bad the ski areas will only get a dusting. They’re really hurting right now for natural snow. Maybe at the end of next week they’ll start getting some snows.

    1. Interesting. Notice how much snow is falling on THIS side of the Artic Front.
      Temps aloft are cold. Also the more Eastern echos are moving Northeastward,
      while the more Western echos are moving more Southeastward. There
      is some SPIN in the atmosphere.

      I still “wonder” if there is a surprise left in this system. Perhaps the models
      missed something with this very complex situation???? 🙂

      1. I noticed a bit of a spin as well. The front end of the snow shield pivoting more northerly and the western flank more southerly.

          1. Spin in the atmosphere is good for storm development. However, from the models,
            This is NOT the area where the main storm
            is expected to develop.

            What I think we are seeing on radar is this spin in the Northern Stream:

            http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=006&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

            I believe that the main storm ignites with Southern stream energy (spin) near the
            Carolina Coast. See below:

            http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=024&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

            I am hoping that TK or JMA sheds some light on this.

      1. I got the wundermap to work for me. Shows a slighty juicier scenerio? more so than any other EURO run so far, brings the snow a bit further west but nothing to write home about

        1. Also shows the system for end of next week, 17-18 laying down a bit of snow for central and northern NE. Hopefully that continues to show!

        2. are you Sure. All I can get is the 12Z for 2/9 (yesterday) and the 0Z for 2/10 (last night’s 7PM run).

          I cannot see 12Z for 2/10 (This morning’s 7AM run)

  66. Somehow a troll got this blog address and posted it on BZ. It was removed quickly but its out there now. So be mindful that there are trolls reading over this blog and everything we post.

    1. That’s fine as they CANNOT POST unless TK approves them, so NO WORRIES. Let them look at all the posts as much as they want. 🙂

    3. It’s been on the WBZ site before. No worries because as a public site now anyone is welcome as long as they follow the guidelines and I can remove them if they do not.

  67. It also appears that the heavy precip shown on the 12Z GFS in the New Orleans area is a lot more north than what we see on radar.

  72. If you are on FB check out New England Weather Works, he is indicating that phasing is taken place and NE should get more than people think.

  77. Rather than any of the traditional Models I like to use the WBMI. Given all of the WBMI model runs I think this storm will slightly exceed current projections, and in my area (Concord MA) we will see 5-7 inches of mostly fluffy snow, and that it will be a lovely and wintry weekend.

  78. My own invention, the Weather Blogger Mass Index. Where one listens to the thoughts of a large number of fellow weather-obsessed persons and combines their forecasts, paying special attention to the trends that are found to develop over time. As with traditional Models the WBMI will begin to coalesce as the event in question approaches, but even then surprises are possible.

    Currently I am going in the opposite direction of Baileyman, which is disconcerting, but I just have a feeling here…

  81. Old salty I want this storm bad. But again I am struggling with the temp at onset of storm of this storm. It has pembroke in the
    4-6 zone. I just feel we may get lower. I hope not. Thoughts.

    1. You’ll know tomorrow 🙂
      Seriously, the warmer temps may cut down on accumulation
      initially, but it is cold above and assuming there is some intensity
      temps should drop to close to 32 “fairly” quickly. You’ll probably get
      your 4, but probably not 6, unless the system moves closer.

      Just my thoughts.

  83. My feeling is we are going to get more also. Of course my feelings have been wrong 99% of the time but that 1 in a hundred sure is fun! Whatever happens I hope everyone stays safe and can get out and enjoy.

  84. The winter that wasnt + best qpf where boundary layer is very marginal + preceeding mild weather = little snow.

    I think its a general 1 to 2 all around. All snow, Boston points N and W, but not much QPF. Where there’s more QPF south and east of Boston, I think the boundary layer temps are more marginal thus holding accum’s to 1-2.

    Big story may be quick freeze Boston, S and E tomorrow evening when the temp crashes.

      1. Hi John. Yeah, I hope it does reach 4-6 inches……I just feel like we’ve seen this particular song and dance before this winter where the cold air was supposed to beat the precip and it ended up not doing it. Plus, I’m also suspicious of how much precip gets into New England. 4-6 at 30F to 32F is going to require close to .5 QPF. That seems like a lot to expect for this setup.

  86. And with my previous post….right on cue, Taunton has Winter weather advisories for eastern new england up to Mass/NH border.

        1. From NWS upton, NY:

          WITH 2-3 INCHES FOR THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND
          3-5 INCHES FOR INTERIOR SE CT…MOSTLY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
          MORNING. THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT PARTS OF SRN CT AND
          LONG ISLAND COULD SEE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS VIA A COMBO OF MESOSCALE
          BANDING THAT SETS UP NW OF THE SFC LOW AND OR COLDER TEMPS THAN
          FCST

          1. From NWS Tauton. There is that wording again!

            NOW THE GFS/NAM DO SHOW A
            PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD SNOW GROWTH/LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
            CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
            AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN WE THINK MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
            WILL OCCUR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED BANDING.

    1. I hope I am !! I would like to see some snow, I’d like to see the region get some much needed precip and I need Logan to get another 19 inches. 🙂

  90. Winter Weather Advisories up for the eastern parts of SNE. This is what I was thinking yesterday the further east you are in SNE the more snow you will see. West of the CT River Valley maybe just an inch.

  91. Not to sound repetitive, but I guess my biggest question is precip amount.

    If it were going to be in the low 20s during the event, then I could see these amounts. But, I think north of Boston it will be coasting down through the upper 20s and south of Boston, probably in the very low 30s.

    That makes me think you’d need about .2 or .25 precip total north of Boston and .4 or a little more south of Boston to get these snow totals. I just dont think the region sees that much precip.

  92. NWS’s point forecast has dropped from 2-4 to 1-3 for my area, and the zone forecast has gone from “snow” to “snow showers” yet they still have 2-4.

    Something ain’t right. I’m sticking with the same forecast, carrying it forward, and updating the blog now, since I will be out most of tonight.

  93. Is thinking still same – anywhere from 1-4 with maybe more in southeast of Boston area? And did I see that it’s scheduled to start earlier? Does that mean more rain and less snow? or is it too soon for a timeline?

    Sorry – I’m trying to catch up here and can’t look at all links – grandson just was rushed to hospital for stitches after hockey puck to head – like all four year olds he is resilient – not so sure about his parents and grandmother tho

    1. I think thats the general idea from the NWS. I personally think less, which means we’ll get clobbered ! 🙂

      Glad to hear your grandson is resilient….its never easy to watch a little one get injured.

      1. hahahaha – I like the way you look at it, Tom. Clobbered is good. And yes never easy to see a little one hurt – esp with the EMTs and firemen all huddled around him 🙂 Thanks!

  94. Snowfall totals from Sat storm Boston- 1-2 inches,, Providence- 2-3 inches,, Worcester- 1-2 inches,,, Manchester- 0-coating,, Taunton has jackpot at 4 inches,, I do believe due to the timing it will cut way back on accumulations.

  95. NWS TAUNTON AFTERNOON PACKAGE:

    LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS
    NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE LOW ON
    A PATH JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS RUN IS A BIT
    MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER TO
    THE SOUTHEAST THAN IS OPTIMAL FOR A MAJOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
    SNOWSTORM…HOWEVER…WE ARE LOOKING AT AN ACCUMULATING SNOW STORM
    FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL THICKNESSES/SOUNDINGS
    INDICATE THIS WILL BE SNOW AT LEAST FOR A TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE
    AREA…WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING AS SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE STORM.
    THE ONLY PLACES WHERE IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS
    IS NANTUCKET.

    HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS A TRICKY QUESTION. WHILE MODELS AGREE ON QPF
    AND PTYPE…TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN A
    DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. THIS WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES ON
    THE GROUND…PARTICULARLY WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES THE PAST COUPLE
    OF DAYS. THE GFS/NAM CROSS-SECTIONS HAVE A PERIOD OF EXCELLENT SNOW
    GROWTH AND LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…AS WELL AS THE
    POTENTIAL FOR FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE CAPE COD
    CANAL REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR
    LOCALIZED BANDING WHICH WOULD INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS BANDING
    COULD OCCUR A BIT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OR A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
    DISRUPTING WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE.

    AT THIS POINT OUR FORECAST IS FOR A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES EXCEPT
    FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MASS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
    MORE LIKELY. DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY BANDING FORMS THERE IS THE
    POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASS…
    SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND…AND THE UPPER CAPE. LOCALIZED HIGHER
    AMOUNTS…UP TO 8 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND
    POSSIBLY FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST MASS BUT A LOW PROBABILITY AT
    THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHEAST
    CONNECTICUT…RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WITH THIS
    FORECAST PACKAGE.

  96. Blog updated. I just don’t see much potential for this to surprise anyone and be heavier. Disorganized storm, multiple centers at first, progressive, limited moisture, marginal temps at the start, warm ground, daytime snowfall with a noticeably higher sun angle, no high to the north (in fact we have weak low pressure to the north with highs east and west of the storm).

    Have a great evening everybody!

  97. 18Z GFS total qpf. DOWN from 12Z run and quite a bit less than NAM.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p36&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=039&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    Is this due to it being the real deal? Energy just takes this thing more OTS?
    Or is this due to it being the 18Z GFS? 🙂

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