Monday March 7 2022 Forecast (7:12AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)

Low pressure will move rapidly east northeastward today, passing across northern New England this evening. First, the frontal boundary that moved through here last night will push back to the north as a warm front, but it will produce only spotty very light rainfall at most, but during this afternoon as the boundary sits across southern NH some rain shower activity can occur in southern NH and MA (mostly north of I-90). That boundary will pull northward just in advance of the passing low tonight, which will then drag a cold front fairly quickly across the region from northwest to southeast, when a more widespread episode of rain showers will occur, along with a possible rain squall right with the front which may even include some thunder. This will be brief however, marking the end of the event and the passage of the front, which will return dry and chilly weather to our region for Tuesday. There may be some significant gusts of wind in the 35-50 MPH range just ahead of to behind this front for a while. Isolated pockets of wind damage can occur, especially in higher elevations of central MA to eastern CT and northwestern RI, with a few power outages. While gusty on Tuesday, the wind will start to settle down during the day as high pressure approaches from the west. This high will settle across the region Tuesday night then retreat to the northeast on Wednesday. One slight change to the forecast at this point is that a wave of low pressure I’m watching and previously expecting to pass far enough south of our area to keep its precipitation out of here may indeed be close enough to spread some of it in here later Wednesday into Wednesday evening, and it will be cold enough at that time that we may have to deal with some snow as well. Some late-in-the-game fine tuning will be required in the next 2 posts. Either way, that system, miss, graze, or hit, moves away Thursday with more fair and chilly weather expected as high pressure sits to the north. By Friday, that high will move southeastward and we will see sunshine start to give way to clouds ahead of the next low pressure system which will be moving through the Ohio Valley at that time…

TODAY: Cloudy. A brief period of very light rain possible this morning. Scattered to numerous rain showers mainly north of I-90 mid afternoon on. Highs 47-52 southern NH, 53-58 MA/CT/RI. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with widespread rain showers, a potential rain squall, and possible thunder during the evening. Clearing west to east overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH, shifting to W by late evening then NW overnight.

TUESDAY: Sun and a few passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 19-26. Wind NW to N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Some rain/mix/snow possible by late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow evening, ending overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)

A strong low pressure area cuts through the region March 12 with a good chance of rain and gusty wind, followed by drying and turning colder later that day and dry, windy, and cold weather for March 13 to finish the weekend. The overall outlook is for dry weather March 14-16 but a system may cut north of the region about March 15 with a minor precipitation threat and temperatures should average below to near normal at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)

Still some activity and variable temperatures expected in the pattern as we head through the final few days of meteorological winter to the vernal equinox.

47 thoughts on “Monday March 7 2022 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Interesting that the Wednesday system may make it up this way at least in some form.

    Also interesting to see a decent snow storm depicted by
    the 6Z GFS. Of course, it is like 15 days out, so I am sure it is pure fantasy. Even so, is it showing a pattern that could support something like this?

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022030706&fh=360

    Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030706&fh=378&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  8. Wednesday beginning to look more and more snowy.

    RDPS Surface

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype&rh=2022030712&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z RDPS Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030712&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    NAM surface

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=prateptype&rh=2022030712&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    NAM Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022030712&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  10. At least there is no artic cold air to follow after Wednesday. What snow falls should all melt shortly after.

    1. For sure and even the little that is showing won’t even be that much due to sun angle and now warm ground.

      1. Thankfully the worst of the thunderstorm activity will be southwest of SNE. Still can’t rule out some strong wind gusts.

  14. TK, any long-range thoughts about the London, UK weather – say, 15 -22 March. I realize uncertainty in forecasting increases the longer the range. Just any rough ballpark thoughts would be helpful. Thank you.

    1. Early idea for that time frame…

      Cut off low well to south.
      Trough over Iceland.
      Weak extension of north central Europe ridge with limited showers but may be on the chilly side.

      Later in that period the trough from the west starts eastward and makes London milder but wetter.

          1. There are severe thunderstorm warnings west of SNE. The thinking is weakening when they enter SNE as the airmass is more stable and thunderstorms hate stable air.

  18. Much of Eastern Ukraine is under snow cover. Not a lot of snow, and it’s not that cold. Whatever the weather, the Russian military is being hammered constantly. This was an extremely poorly planned operation. Nothing “special” about it, other than the fact that it’s leading to catastrophic loss of life on both sides of the conflict. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500870383075008529

  19. I mentioned Mike Wankum last night. He is helping a friend…..Olga…in ukraine and sharing her story. It’s on FB. I hope folks here who have FB are following Olga’s story through Mike. TK said he reads here. Even though this isn’t weather related, I like the idea of supporting him if he supports us

    1. Mike is a great guy & does lots of good things in his personal like . He lives in Scituate I would love to bump into him . I just got done Vicki reading one of the articles.

      1. I messaged him to see how I can send some money to him for Olga. I didn’t know he lives in Scituate

      1. No lighting. 0,26 rain in a matter of minutes. Wind is nuts. Daughter in Uxbridge says her house is shaking. Ours is newer so just making lots of noise. It is moving very quickly

        Gust up to mid to higher 40s

      1. Very narrow band on radar, should be super brief.
        Someone commented on Eric Fisher’s page about lightning in Lowell. Haven’t heard any thunder here.

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