Tuesday March 8 2022 Forecast (7:15AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)

High pressure builds toward New England today from the Great Lakes region, so it will be dry and chilly, starting windy before winds relax later. The high center goes right over us this evening with a clear sky and quick radiational cooling for a cold night, but the temperature fall will be capped as the high center slides offshore and cloud cover increases in advance of a low pressure area, which will pass south of the region late Wednesday, but close enough to toss its shield of snow (and some mixed precipitation) over us Wednesday afternoon and evening. While some of the model guidance indicates a 1-3 or 2-4 inch snowfall, a warmer ground and about 75% of the snow falling during daylight will limit the actual accumulation to a coating to 2 inches, mainly on unpaved surfaces. This system exists Wednesday night but we will have to watch for slippery areas on untreated surfaces. Conditions improve quickly Thursday as high pressure builds in with fair and milder weather. But the pattern remains active, and even though Friday’s daytime will be dry and pleasant, we’ll see clouds already heading in ahead of the next weather system, which will bring a period of rain and wind to the region later Friday night into Saturday. It looks like this low center will be intensifying as it cuts just northwest of our area, putting us on the warmer side of it, but a quick drop in temperature coming later Saturday as it starts to dry out, assuming the timing of the system doesn’t really change between now and then.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. High clouds increase overnight. Lows 19-26. Wind NW to N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sunshine possible then overcast. Snow (some snow/mix rain initially near South Coast), developing southwest to northeast. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off evening, maybe as a mix with rain South Coast again. Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches. Areas of ice on untreated surfaces. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 29-36. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain likely overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain likely through midday. Rain ending with breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 50-57 but may fall sharply late in the day. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W by late in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)

Windy, chilly, dry behind Saturday’s system on Sunday March 13. Also a reminder that we change the clocks from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time at 2:00 a.m. Sunday. High pressure brings fair and more tranquil weather March 14 before a disturbance brings a chance for unsettled weather on the Ides. Jury’s out on the weather for March 16-17 with some guidance showing a decent warm up while other guidance shows us near the boundary between that warmer air and cold air to the north with a bit more unsettled weather. I lean toward the latter for the time being.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)

Typical battle between the lingering cold of winter to our north and the early warming air of spring to our south and this will play out in a fairly active pattern with variable temperatures for the last couple days of winter into the first few of days of spring. Vernal Equinox is Sunday March 20 at 11:33 a.m. EDT.

62 thoughts on “Tuesday March 8 2022 Forecast (7:15AM)”

    2. And like Tk said mostly on grass with the use of plows probably not needed if during the day

  9. I have not been posting as much. I am having a very difficult time wrapping my head around what is going on in Ukraine and
    the atrocities being committed by the unhinged madman Putin.
    It is Nazi Germany all over again! I can’t stand what is happening.

    I just wish we could send in the Cavalry! I understand there are far reaching reasons why not. It is just so frustrating.

    Sorry for my rant. I am feeling very very sad.

    1. Difficult situation. I feel similarly. It’s why I’ve occasionally posted items – with a weather theme; snow and mitigated cold has returned to Ukraine – on the situation there.

      While it’s dire now, I have a sense of hope for Europe and even Russia (provided they can get rid of Putin) that I did not several months ago. The unity there is encouraging. Paradoxically, this event may strengthen the forces of capitalist, liberal democracy. Here, I don’t mean “liberal” in the way we Americans use it. Rather, liberal indicates tolerant, open, and free of authoritarianism.

    3. Dave….I Know many feel as you do. I spend a good portion of the day with tears. I believe I am far from alone. I’m not sure how long we can just watch what is happening there.

      The all encompassing resolve of the Ukranian people is beyond anything I have seen in my lifetime. The world as a whole needs to stand up and take notice. Heaven help us all if we do not learn from their example.

  11. Tomorrow’s system is an opportunity for Worcester, with its elevation, to close the gap a bit on the seasonal snow total vs Logan.

      1. Unfortunately I agree as well. It’s probably going to come down to the wire once snow season officially ends for SNE.

        Off the top of my head, I believe Boston has just under a 4-inch lead (3.8”).

        1. prediction:

          Worcester comes in at 2.2 inches and Logan comes in
          at 0.3 inch.

          🙂 🙂 🙂

          Let’s see how far off this is.

  15. GFS shows intensifying low pressure nearby (overhead) Saturday.

    I’ll be interested to see if SPC introduces slight/marginal convection chances late Fri into mid Saturday as we get closer.

    Perhaps cool waters south of us with southerly flow may provide too much stability.

    Pros for possible low elevated convection is deepening sfc low and decent dynamics.

      1. AccuWeather was going for snow in Boston Saturday night and Sunday morning. Somebody just looked at a surface map, saw flakes, and used it as “the forecast”. Snow showers, perhaps, but these types of rocket-systems do NOT produce significant snow in southeastern New England with that track. That will be for NY State and the mountains of far western and northern New England where a good punch may occur.

    1. I’m definitely not on this team. I could maybe lean into this a bit more of this was going to be a nighttime event for that area. Nope.

  21. I see some snow maps out there that won’t verify.

    Remember JMA’s advice about the snow depth change map for some of these models. Or, take a look at the FV3’s Kuchera snow map, which is much more realistic.

    1. I have done so. Independent of that. it looks like the latest
      guidance has a little bit stronger system. Should be interesting at the very least. I really don’t care if it is 1/2 inch or 5 inches. I don’t give a crap at this time of year. It will be gone the very next day anyway. 🙂

        1. Definitely better than some of the 10:1 amounts we’re seeing. This, in the Boston area, will be about 6:1.

          1. I gathered it would be somewhere around there.
            I bet Logan does NOT see 1 inch. In fact, above I predicted 2.2 for Worcester and 0.3 inch for Logan.

            Probably 1/2 to 3/4 inch here in JP. 🙂

  23. TV mets have been upping their totals just a tad.

    Channel 4: widespread 1-3″
    Channel 5: widespread C-3″
    Channel 7: widespread 2-4″
    Channel 10: widespread 2-4″ but less along coast; mention of 5″ inland

    3. This could end up being the most “interesting” snow event so far this season, as small as it is.

      1. Isn’t there good potential for dynamic cooling with this? It’s expected to snow well into the evening before ending.

        1. No. Not that kind of system, and pretty run of the mill as far as snow events go. The January 29 system was far more interesting in my opinion, along with a few others.

          This thing is to be a run-of-the-mill flat, fast moving low that is a minor event, typical of March.

          If the snow from this was starting at the end of the day, and not ending at the start of evening, we’d see more out of it. But 75% of the snow falls before sunset especially south of I-90. That’s not gonna yield you very much unless it’s a solid, moderate to heavy snow shield.

  24. I’m in the minority nowadays, but I am missing the idea that spring training is happening. I don’t even have to be there or tune into the games – I never care for pre- or off-season in any sport – but knowing it’s happening is great. While not a spring person, I love baseball. I associate baseball with a rebirth of sorts, which of course relates to its beginning in spring (first in Florida and Arizona, then elsewhere). I hate these disputes between really rich people and super wealthy folks. Leaves a sour taste in my mouth. Once there is a season, I’m not going out on a limb to say that the Red Sox are in a better position to be an actual contender – personnel-wise – than the Patriots. Similarly, the Bruins are in a better position. Yet, the Patriots, even during the off-season (6 months before the first regular season game!) , grab virtually all the attention.

    1. I don’t think a season will happen at all. Both sides are too greedy and stupid. Little immature dramadults. Both the owners and the players have ruined the MLB. Maybe, POSSIBLY, they can get new diapers in time to be less cranky to get the 2023 season underway on time. I won’t hold my breath.

      1. Sadly, I agree with you. It has been too many years in coming. This is not the league I and many of us grew up with

        1. I hate to sound so negative Vicki but it is what it is. 🙁
          I love the game, and following the Sox and all. But this part of it has just destroyed it and we can only hope they can find a way to fix it – but it will take time, a lot of it.

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