Wednesday March 9 2022 Forecast (7:49AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)

A wave of low pressure passing just south of New England will produce a late-season snowfall for us this afternoon and early evening. While a quick glance at model snowfall forecast numbers make the event “look” more impressive, as a forecaster there are many factors to take into account. First off, using the 10:1 snow map will not be helpful as the ratios for this event will probably be on the order of 5:1 or 6:1 (snow to water) except perhaps about 8:1 in the highest elevations of northwestern RI, central MA, and southwestern NH, where a few spotty 3 inch snowfall amounts may occur from a melted precipitation event of generally 0.10 to 0.40 inch. This leaves the accumulation generally about 1/2 to 2 inches for the region. With about 75% of this falling from early afternoon to sunset, during daylight, it battles the higher March sun angle which does send radiation through the overcast much more easily than it would have in January, meaning that unpaved surfaces will just be wet especially since air temperatures will be marginal. In fact, the air is marginal enough that the snow may actually not start as snow, but rain, or a mix, on its leading edge, and may transition back to rain before ending along parts of the South Coast especially Cape Cod / Islands. Precipitation ends early evening, when we have a short-lived opportunity to see some untreated surfaces cover over with slushy snow then freeze up as the temperature goes down a little further below freezing later at night. That will be the greatest hazard we face during and after this event. Thursday, anything that has fallen will vanish as we see a return to sun and temperatures reaching or exceeding 50F as high pressure builds in. This high will give way gradually to an increase in cloud cover on Friday ahead of a warm front, which extends from our next storm system to deal with. This one, set to mess up the first half of the weekend, will bring a wind and rain event late Friday night through most of Saturday. There’s still a bit of a question on the exact track of the low, but even a track bringing it overhead would still mean a mainly rain event even for interior sections of the WHW forecast area, although a flip to snow or snow showers can occur at the end, depending on the arrival of cold air versus departure of precipitation. This little detail still has to be refined as we get closer to the event. Regardless, expect at least a moderate to possibly heavy rainfall event and some potential wind issues. This will be followed by a shot of cold and more wind, but with dry weather to finish off the weekend on Sunday and the last full weekend of the astronomical winter season. Sunday also marks the switch to Daylight Saving Time when we move the clocks forward at 2:00 a.m. ST which becomes 3:00 am. DT. Keep that in mind for your clocks that don’t automatically adjust themselves. I’ll remind you again… 🙂

TODAY: Overcast. Snow moves in from south to north, may start as rain/mix briefly in some areas. Highs 32-39. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off evening, maybe as a mix with rain South Coast again. Snow accumulation 1/2 to 2 inches mainly on unpaved surfaces, with a local 3 inch amount possible interior higher elevations. Areas of ice forming on untreated surfaces. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 27-34. Wind N-NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain likely overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain likely through midday. Rain ending with breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 50-57 but may fall sharply late in the day. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W by late in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers evening. Lows 18-25. Wind W-NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)

While there will still be an active pattern overall, our weather will be quieter as we avoid major systems, seeing 1 or 2 more minor disturbances come through with variable temperatures and a couple precipitation threats during this period, favoring March 15 and 18.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)

End winter / start spring (equinox 11:33 a.m. EDT March 20) will be fairly typical with tug-of-war temperature pattern and some unsettled weather at times, but too early to really pin-point anything in detail.

120 thoughts on “Wednesday March 9 2022 Forecast (7:49AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK. Great explanation for the lower snowfall amounts. I don’t think that most people understand that. (those here should, howver).

  6. Looking at radars up and down the coast, it “appears” that the bulk of the precipitation wants to pass just South of our area.
    Hmmm, I wonder. we shall see how much bubbles up this way. Still early in the day yet.

    1. Creepy and the are venomous as well, however, reports are
      that their fangs cannot penetrate human skin. Also, reports say
      that they are warm weather creatures and they believe that
      NC will be their most Northern extent.

    2. I know I am supposed to honor spiders….throwback to Mac’s bloodline to Robert the Bruce….but I’m not sure if even old Robert would honor these.

    2. You’ll likely get considerably more snow than Boston will, relatively speaking of course. Don’t you have elevation on your side, Jimmy?

    1. Wonder if Ry still feels ok with that 5 as the top end of the range. I wouldn’t.

      1. Ry = Ryan Hanrahan?

        btw, I am sitting at 39 degrees here in JP.

        DP at 24, so I suspect it may still start as snow or worse case a mix or even plain rain that transitions swiftly to SNOW.

  14. Is this the NWS radar site everyone has been complaining about?

    https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy03MS41NTksNDEuNDg4XSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjgsImZpbHRlciI6IldTUi04OEQiLCJsYXllciI6ImJkaGMiLCJzdGF0aW9uIjoiS0JPWCJ9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOnRydWUsImJhc2UiOiJzdGFuZGFyZCIsImFydGNjIjpmYWxzZSwiY291bnR5IjpmYWxzZSwiY3dhIjpmYWxzZSwicmZjIjpmYWxzZSwic3RhdGUiOmZhbHNlLCJtZW51Ijp0cnVlLCJzaG9ydEZ1c2VkT25seSI6dHJ1ZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuOCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MC42fX0%3D#/

    Personally, I like it. 🙂

    1. I like it also. It looks pretty much like RadarScope

      Of course when RS was down the other day, I assumed it was something I’d done. So I played with it and messed it all up. I think I have it back to where it should be now.

      1. I didn’t have any trouble operationally. Perhaps I wasn’t trying the problem areas. Could you point me to a problem area or 2 and I’ll take a look and offer my thoughts.

        Many thanks

        1. I have a very difficult time having the loop run smoothly on both phone and laptop, neither of which have a speed or memory issue.

  18. 40 degrees here in JP. Logan at 37. Hmmm
    Wind off the water there? Perhaps sun angle is now getting
    high enough to start affecting my temperature sensor which is normally very accurate. I have a new radiation shield for it if i ever get around to installing it. 🙂

  19. Sad news to report in Ukraine.

    Mariupol authorities accuse Russians of bombing maternity hospital

    https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-09-22/h_4498c85f00bb1fd41412cd70b0fcfe70

    This has to Stop. I for one, do NOT agree with the USA NOT agreeing to allow Poland to give Ukraine up to 29 jets.
    If we are supplying anti-aircraft and anti-tank missles,
    why not a few planes. What’s the difference. We are already aiding Ukraine, why not aid for real.

    I for one, do NOT think Putin or any Russians would resort
    to nukes. I think it is all sabre rattling because Putin views the West as weak. I cannot stand the poor Ukrainian people
    being blasted to smithereens. I would risk WWIII to stop this
    carnage. Putin has to be stopped. If we don’t stop him, he’ll see it as a green light to take whatever the hell he wants.

    Kennedy confronted Nikita Khrushchev and got him to back down. We need to do the same now.

    Then I am nearly 75 years old, so I have lived my life. But I want these Ukrainians to be allowed to lived their lives as well.

    Sorry for my rant, but I just read this story and got very upset.

    1. It’s fine, Dave. It’s upsetting to see what’s going on over there..

      What I was thinking of doing was using the C-19 page that I currently have as a combination C-19/war page so people can discuss both things there.

    2. It is very upsetting to say the least JPD. I know we are trying to avoid direct confrontation, but it’s seeming more and more likely that we won’t be able to avoid it. These scenes are only going to get worse as they continue to advance. Very sad situation!

      1. I feel the same. I don’t know how long we can allow this to happen.

        TK suggested i ask on his behalf if folks on the covid page mind ukraine discussion there.

  20. Snow began about 10-15 minutes ago while I was out feeding the birds. It is light to touching on moderate.

  21. Still nothing falling out of the sky. No snow, rain, or spiders.

    TK, if you’re right about baseball not having a season this year that will be a shame. Baseball for me – and many folks over 55, I suppose – is a summer ritual. It’s like good background music that’s on all the time. The regularity is important, at least to me. Without it … it’ll feel empty.

  22. Some flakes have been falling off and on for at least 1/2 hour, probably longer. One can literally count the flakes. Not much happening yet.

  25. I thought I went through a time warp when the news anchor on WBZ just said blowing and drifting snow is becoming an issue for the afternoon commute…….

    2. OMG.

      Whoever that is should be personally libel for any harm caused by that statement. Be it someone rushing out of an office building to leave early and falling into some kind of harm, whatever.

    4. I normally would laugh this off, which I pretty much did, but there is an obligation in reporting to not be misleading. That is misleading. I actually had a good laugh about it in the car, after which the person at the DD drive thru window probably wondered why my eyes were teared up. It was from laughing, for sure…

  26. Winter wonderland where I am with the snow caking to everything. It has come down at a moderate clip to start sticking to the pavement.

  27. Now it is looking like a snow event. Took until after 3PM, which means this will all fall without any sun angle issues. It is all about intensity and temperature from this point on.

  28. The WHW forecast area has about 2 to 4 hours of accumulating snow potential left, 2 of which will be impacted by a daylight-warmed lower atmosphere. This leaves me happy with the forecast I posted this morning and no changes will take place.

    1. Radio. They have been “not good” lately. I listen to them sometimes on the way to and/or from work. They are especially bad when it comes to summarizing the weather – it’s almost always not the actual message that needs to be sent to the listeners. I wish they’d just let AccuWeather do it. Yeah they aren’t great, but at least they know how to word it properly. I really wish they’d just use the WBZ TV weather team more frequently.

      1. Letting Accuweather do the forecast only a very small amount of the time really hurts them.

    1. The core of this thing is coming right into and across the Boston area in the next hour to 90 minutes.

  33. I mean, they could have blowing and drifting snow in Barrow, AK ……

    But then, they probably don’t have much of a commute.

  34. Steady snow. Expect it to stay this way til 5:30 or so. It is heavier now than what I though I would see.

  36. Everything winter white. Good sized flakes standing on the heads of those that fell before them

  37. I used to like listening to Elliot Abrams’ forecasts on WBZ. I know he was forecasting from State College in Pennsylvania, and working for Accuweather, but I still liked his forecasts. He retired 3 years ago.

    1. I don’t recall a time when I ever thought radio forecasts were good. I’m always surprised when folks listen to them.

      1. I think it depends on how frequently they are updated. If you get an old tape, it’s not good. If it’s a station where the forecast has to be squeezed into 15 seconds (other than a teaser), it’s not going to be of much value. When I did WLLH from college back in 1989-1990, I think we had 30 seconds or 1 minute, and it was a taped feed for a relatively small station, and it only got updated maybe 2 times daily, so the forecast was “good” for only a limited amount of time, especially if it was active.

          1. Well, in those cases yes.
            But when you have a station that updates frequently and/or has a very good source of information then they can be quite reliable.

            1. The catch is that the average person doesn’t know which station is updated. Actually, I’d say the majority

      2. Thank goodness most people don’t think that way, or I’d be out of a job. We do forecasts for over 50 radio stations across the nation and the Caribbean.

  38. About 1.2 inch snow here. And it sure is wet snow. I went out for two second to pull the snowman (airblow) who keep me company on the deck out from under the snow and it feels as if I rant through a heavy rainstorm

  39. After that last burst, I’m up to 0.6 total. I think we’ll go over 1 inch here in The Wu. (FYI, Worcester tries to call itself “The Woo” or whatever, but Woburn, “The Wu”, beat them to this by a few decades). 😉

        2. Chronicle did a whole show one time on Massachusetts town nicknames. It was great!

    1. We’re starting to build slush in the middle of the main road here. Light covering on the side road.

    2. Out side street has been covered for a while. It’s wet snow so don’t know what will happen if it freezes overnight. We have a bit over 1,5 inch.

      Sure is pretty to look at

  41. Snow a bit lighter here (between 2 slightly heavier bands). Street that was building slush is back to just wet again.

      1. Interestingly he changed it to 1-3 this evening. I’ve done stuff like that so many times then kicked myself after.

  45. 3” on the nose here in Coventry CT and 32F. Wet and heavy snow. Everything is plastered and the roads are snow covered and slick.

    Still snowing but finally starting to lighten up.

  47. A road trip west or northwest for 3-4 hrs to Albany or Burlington VT Friday afternoon might put a snow enthusiast in a spot to get 6-10 inches dumped on them from the next storm very late Saturday into the first half of Saturday.

    1. In this instance, please keep it there. This will be the first time in two years we will be together for my son’s birthday. We all remember March 13, 2020 when the country and basically the world shut down

      And on another and different note, March 13, 1993

    1. Thanks Vicki. Can Boston hang on? 🙂

      Too bad we can’t declare our snow season officially “over” as of today. Not to mention that there’s still April to consider as well.

      Where is the switch to blowtorch/SE ridge when you need them? Darn!!

  51. Well looking at those snow reports, I think the best forecast I could have made was not the one I did make. The coating to 2 inches worked well for about I-95 southeastward, and should have been 2 to 4 with isolated 5 northwest of there.

    The error was similar to another system we had earlier this winter. Higher ratio and about 0.10 inch more precipitation than I thought might fall in those areas.

    Yes, some of us do nit-pick ourselves this badly. 😉 Our friend on Channel 10 was doing the same thing late yesterday while the thing was still in progress. https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZNgfXnjqwWx5Z2A98

    As I’ve said we have a great group on Boston TV. I think Pete is my favorite of all of them though.

    1. Very UN Pete like. He is often criticized when his forecast differs. I’ve not seen him back off. I suspect the storm no one got has everyone jumpy. He will always be my favorite. Eric is a very close second. I am learning to like Ryan also. Even he shook his head on the big storm when Pete saw the band over our area and upped his numbers. I wonder if the ch 7 met backed off. I still don’t know who she is

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