Saturday March 12 2022 Forecast (8:40AM)

87 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)

The final full weekend of winter brings a stormy Saturday and blustery Sunday to our region. There are not really any adjustments to be made regarding today’s storm system. The trend we’d seen east on all guidance settled to a stop and we have a frontal boundary pressing eastward through the area today while up along it will rocket a developing low pressure area. The whole “bomb cyclone” thing has been mentioned, but I don’t really feel there was a need for the term this time – nor do I really ever feel there is since I don’t like it as it’s used as a hype tool, and has no real value in meteorological discussion. Yes, the low pressure area will start to intensify rapidly, and probably will deepen about 24-25 mb in 24 hours from now to early Sunday, but it goes by us later today as a moderately strong low, passing over the Cape Cod area. The “bomb-out” aspect adds to our blustery winds for tonight and Sunday, but doesn’t have much of an impact on our sensible weather today. Often, the public upon hearing that term will then be lead to believe in all aspects the event is going to be maximum potential. This is why further explanation, clarification, and probably just leaving the stupid term out is a better approach. So onto that further explanation about our sensible weather. We’re mild, and this starts as rain for us today, along with some areas of fog, some areas with fairly dense fog in fact. The rain is in more showery form here initially, and will solidify a bit more as the boundary moves through and the low center organizes as it moves by the region later today. During this time, colder air is waiting just behind the frontal boundary to turn the rain over to snow from west to east, with a narrow strip of sleet in some areas where the colder air gets in at the surface first. But as this process takes places, we’ll be getting ready to lose the main moisture / precipitation, so this is going to significantly limit how much snow can fall. The vast majority of the WHW forecast area is going to see insignificant flakes with little accumulation limited to colder surfaces, while once you get to hills over the interior you can see up to around 1 inch on mainly unpaved surfaces, with a maximum potential of 2 or 3 inches possible in central MA and southwestern NH. A more significant snowfall will take place west of the WHW area, from the Berkshires into the mountains of northern New England from this one – which will be good news for ski areas. Once that low has accelerated through the Gulf of Maine and into the Maritime Provinces of Canada tonight and Sunday we will experience the feel of mid winter with cold air and gusty wind, offset a little bit on Sunday by the higher March sun angle. And don’t forget to give up your hour of sleep tonight by turning clocks that don’t auto-set forward one hour (officially 2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT) Sunday morning as we switch from standard to daylight saving time. Behind the weekend fun, we ease things up as the jet stream becomes more zonal (west to east) early next week with cold air locked in Canada and milder Pacific air overtaking much of the US. For us this means milder weather with mostly fair conditions Monday through Wednesday, except for the chance of a passing rain shower sometime Tuesday as a disturbance passing to the north pushes a frontal boundary across the area.

TODAY: Overcast. Rain showers and areas of fog during the morning. Steadier rain for a while midday into afternoon, briefly to sleet in some aras before turning to snow and snow showers from west to east with accumulation 1 inch or less by evening, except 1-3 inches possible in southwestern NH to central MA. Highs 38-45 except 45-52 coast early morning, falling gradually from west to east during the day so all areas are in the 30-37 range by late. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming N-NW increasing to 10-20 MPH late.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers evening. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chill below 10 in the morning.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 51-58 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)

Zonal flow pattern continues for the balance of next week with a lack of temperature extremes. We’ll have to watch for low pressure to the south and a disturbance to the north to start the period and may end up between them with fair weather, but a couple of disturbances can still pass by during the course of this time with some minor precipitation events. No major storms foreseen, even though it’s too early to determine much in the way of detail. The vernal equinox – the astronomical beginning of spring – occurs at 11:33 a.m. on Sunday March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)

Despite what looks to be a continued fairly low amplitude zonal flow pattern overall, we will see some battling of early spring warmth to our south and lingering cold of winter to our north, leaving us vulnerable to temperature changes and a couple bouts of unsettled weather heading into late March.

87 thoughts on “Saturday March 12 2022 Forecast (8:40AM)”

  6. Thanks, TK.

    I have heart Eric, Pete and JR explain “the bomb” many times, especially leading up to and during our big storm earlier this year. That doesn’t mean other Mets have not done the same. I just don’t listen to them often enough. The Public is educated….some just do not listen, and you know how I feel about playing to those folks 😉

    1. All 3 of them explain it very well. Most of our forecasters do. The problem comes in the form of headlines or anchors trying to communicate the info. I think this year we have seen the public learn a lot more about this, thanks to those explanations.

      And to those who don’t wanna listen, oh well! I agree with you there.

      1. Media has exaggerated for as long as I’ve been alive and far longer than that. As long as we don’t dumb down to meet that, I’m happy

  12. If Boston can hang on to its lead over Worcester by the end of today, and no more snow opportunities thereafter, it would only be the 6th time in recorded weather history that Boston beats Worcester in snowfall.

    B = 53.8”
    W = 52.1”

    1. Well, it would be dangerous for us to assume no more opportunities after March 12, especially for the interior hills. Worcester will finish ahead of Boston this season. 🙂

      It remains to be seen if they catch them today though. Boston will get 0.1 at MOST, probably not measurable. Technically, I have Worcester in 1-3 inches, but I favor closer to 1.

        1. As noted in the discussion above, the solid / steady rain comes at midday. It’s entering the region via RI and eastern CT now. Everything is right on track.

  14. I was watching a cross country ski race in the Paralympics from China, and the announcer referred to the snow scrapings building up from the skis as “mashed potatoes”. You hear that used among weather enthusiasts and meteorologists, but that was the first time I’ve heard it used in a sports cast. 🙂

    1. I have heard of “mash potato” snow around here after an early spring snowfall. I actually like the term. 🙂

  15. Even on April 1, 1997 Worcester clobbered Boston.

    W = 33.0”
    B = 25.4”

    Imagine if this same event had occurred on February 1, 1997. Wow!!!

    1. In a colder atmosphere we’d have had less moisture anyway. Snow amounts would probably have been similar.

  18. My brother on the other side of Woburn reports that as of this morning his annual “snow pile for the dog” is a 15 foot long oval shape that is 40 inches high at its maximum.

    I think it’s time for another contest to guess the date this pile vanishes…

  19. We have now flipped to 100% snow and 32F. That was a quick changeover. Getting a coating now on grassy surfaces.

    1. Appears a little faster than expected, but the moisture will
      be mostly gone before it changes in Eastern sections. 🙂

    2. The rain didn’t even last long here. Perhaps 3 hours or so.
      precio is done, unless there are a few snow showers later.

      btw, did someone say the system would ROCKET its way up here? Indeed it did. While I am at it, not that any mets here were saying it, but this so called BOMB cylcone never materialized around these parts. Perhaps in Atlantic Canada it will, but NOT NOT NOT here. NOT in the slightest. 🙂

      As far as I could tell, all we had was a wave on the front.

  20. Started mixing here at 38F maybe an hour ago. Now flipped completely at 35.8. Figured somewhere near 36F was going to be “the number”. Seen it so many times around this time of the year in the hills.

  23. Looks like the bulk of the precip is starting to clear out. Don’t know if there is snow coming in later or not.

      1. It’s going to the upper 10s to lower 20s tonight. We’re not escaping a freeze. Anything that’s still wet will be quite frozen. 😉 We also haven’t escaped the snow showers that are in the forecast through this evening. My “1 inch or less” accumulation forecast also covers a trace (no measurable). So the forecast is essentially working out as expected.

  26. Light snow falling here in Woburn. It changed over around 3PM but was barely doing anything for a while before that. Intensity is picking up a tiny bit now and the flakes are very small.

  27. It has been more of a fine mist than rain. I was completely unaware that it had rained until I saw Philips posts on Boston vs Worcester. I looked at the rain gauge and saw 0.31.

    I did drive back roads north to Sutton center and the temp dropped from 36 here when I left to 34 for most of the dive. Roads are just being treated. Temp here is down to 33.

    I have not seen a sign of sleet or snow. Philip, I’m not sure if Worcester had any snow. Did Boston? I see some comments re snow in CT and far north of me

    Wind was much stronger at the supermarket than it was here but seems to want to pick up

      1. Not doing anything here, but it is 32, so I would suspect anything that falls would be frozen. 🙂

        1. Thanks, JPD. Our temp just dropped to an even 32. I find myself rooting for Boston to top Worcester.

  28. About a half inch of snow and sleet here from round 1 whitened everything up. Had a break and the sun peaked out briefly. Now snow is picking up in intensity again with Round 2. Very windy and cold now with temp of 22 and wind chill down to 5. The snow that is falling is blowing and drifting around with black ice beneath it. Be careful if you are going out on the roads tonight!

  29. I’ve had people around the net asking me why today is event was a dud? That would be a great example of people who don’t actually listen…

    Unless they think that a storm that does exactly as predicted is a dud. Haha!!

    The Worcester area should be picking up an inch or so of snow over the next few hours. There is some decent snow heading for that area. It will stay mostly west of the Boston area which will have lighter snow.

  30. My brother just called with his daily call on an update for my sister in law. Bow, NH, has about 1-2 inches

    1. Thank you for the report.
      I’ve been trying to ask around to see what people are ending up with in comparison to the forecast.

  32. Nasty here in pembroke . Went into 4pm mass & it was misty . Got out of mass & it was mixing & still is here with cars getting buildup & stairs . Nasty out with that temperature drop .

  34. If you want a giggle, tune into TV38 right now and catch the Revs-Real Salt Lake soccer match in the snow and wind from Gillette Stadium!!! 🙂

  37. Snowing at a good clip here for sure & it’s sticking. Reporting for shift soon I hope it’s a good drive in .

    2. Thanks Vicki. Too bad our snow season goes through April. Maybe this is it, or plenty more in the pipeline. TK has always said that it’s easier to snow now than in November/early December. At least Boston is giving Worcester a run for its money so far. We will see. 🙂

  40. I really thought yesterday was gonna be the day for Worcester lol. We still got this! Only need 3/10’s more? No problem.

      1. Go Boston…..for no particular reason other than this is something fun at a time we need a bit more fun and (surprise) I like rooting for the underdog.

    1. I think an inch is a bit generous for here. I don’t know how bad the roads got at night but otherwise I agree that it was no big deal.

      38 years ago today was a thumping

  43. The weather part of the blog will be a little late on the update today… Probably after 11:00 a.m.

Comments are closed.