Sunday March 13 2022 Forecast (12:33PM)

28 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)

Despite the met-bashing I’ve been witnessing around the net this morning, I feel that yesterday’s event behaved as expected, for the most part. Not sure what people were looking for, but I think most people got what they were forecast to get, within a reasonable margin of error. I mean, somebody may have gotten 3.7 inches of snow when they were in a 1-3 inch area, but hey, it happens! Now that storm has moved away and blasted in some cold air for today, but it will only be around for today before we moderate nicely to start the week as high pressure builds in Monday. A disturbance passing north of us on Tuesday will push its cold front southeastward into the region later in the day and into the night, and that front likely comes to a halt and may allow for some unsettled weather for several hours. I’m not sold that this is just rain, as just enough cold air may sneak down for some mixing in northern portions of the WHW forecast area, so that’s going to be something to keep an eye on. That boundary lifts north again Wednesday and high pressure is close enough to provide us with a pleasant late astronomical winter / early meteorological spring day. When we get to Thursday, St. Patrick’s Day in case you want to get your green garments ready, we’ll find ourselves between two disturbances – a low pressure area to the south that may get close enough to bring rain to the South Coast, and a weaker disturbance passing to the north which should keep most of its moisture there. For me, at day 5, the safe bet is to add clouds to the forecast and include the chance of a bit of wet weather for the South Coast, but ultimately this system may end up further south and not a factor, so watch for potential forecast adjustments we as go through the next few days…

TODAY: Sunshine, few passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 30 MPH, diminishing later.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Some light rain possible, even potential for mixed precipitation (rain/sleet/snow) in southern NH and northern MA. Lows 31-38. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds, then sun returns. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Some rain possible South Coast. Highs 47-54. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)

Zonal flow pattern – but near boundary of cold Canada and warm Southeast US. Disturbance brings rain threat March 18, a switch to breezy/chilly weather March 19, then a potential rain/mix/snow event sometime mid to late period. The vernal equinox – the astronomical beginning of spring – occurs at 11:33 a.m. on Sunday March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)

Despite what looks to be a continued fairly low amplitude zonal flow pattern overall, we will see some battling of early spring warmth to our south and lingering cold of winter to our north, leaving us vulnerable to temperature changes and a couple bouts of unsettled weather once again.

28 thoughts on “Sunday March 13 2022 Forecast (12:33PM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    I don’t know what people were expecting either. I don’t go on any social media except this one.

  6. I think the perspective that most people get on a particular weather event comes from snippets on TV or the internet headlines. Take yesterday, there were numerous headlines regarding heavy rain (with more modest 1 inch forecasts later in the report), howling winds, bitter cold and the dreaded bomb cyclone. Understandably people walk away expecting a severe event. The Mets are not to blame, though in some cases it seems they may play up the storm, but the news directors. It’s easy for them to play fast and loose with descriptions to hook viewers. I know this isn’t new stuff but the storm yesterday had the benefit of 2-3 days hype and over expectations.

    We discussed some of this yesterday, but your blog is the great leveler of all the hype and serves an invaluable benefit to its readers.

    1. There is definitely a disconnect between the headlines / teasers and the actual forecasts. While I have no proof, I would be willing to bet that any station you pick has had their meteorologist(s) go to management to try to rectify this only to have the request ignored, because they “have to” have the wording to draw the viewer to stay tuned. I get it from a rating standpoint, but that does not make it right, and I definitely don’t agree with it. Responsibility and truthfulness should ALWAYS come way before hype. News is not “entertainment programming”. It’s supposed to be information – and as accurate as possible. I’ve said before and I’ll say again, I have to hand it to the TV mets in particular because you know it probably drives them nuts, yet they have to go on the air and smile and deliver – and they do a great job at it. I’d be fired if I said what I wanted to. 😉

      1. I agree 100% but doubt it will change given the monetary stakes involved. I also think most viewers absorb 10-15 words of the weather forecast and these are mostly the wrong ones.

  7. Thanks, TK!

    Enjoyed the soccer match last night from a stormy Gillette Stadium on TV38. Unfortunately, when the snow disappeared, so did the Revs’ 2-nil lead. Real Salt Lake scored three goals in the last 15 to beat the home side.

    Looking forward to the Heritage Classic (NHL) between the Leafs and the Sabres from Tim Hortons Field (outdoor) in Hamilton, Ontario at 4 pm. Environment Canada is forecasting periods of snow with a temp of -4ºC with gusts of 50 kph (31 mph).

  8. Thanks TK. About an inch of snow and sleet here yesterday when all was said and done. Sunny areas today are mostly melted despite the cold but still a solid snow cover in shaded areas.

    Ski areas did very well. Killington reporting 16” and Jay Peak received 22”.

  9. Thanks, TK. It is a beautiful day inside and out. All my family,385( the exception of one grandchild, was together for my son’s birthday for the first time in three years. The younger kids played outside the entire time

    As far as met bashing. My take is the more attention you give to trolls, the more they will Continue to do the bashing. They not only bring a negative vibe to the topic they are on, but it grows exponentially when it is addressed on other forums. Social media can be cesspool…..it is best to just not read what you don’t like

    1. I generally agree. I tend to ignore actual trolls, but I do take steps to educate those that I think are above troll status. 🙂

      1. I’m all for education, but I can guarantee you that if people are openly bashing anyone they do not want to be educated. Decent people just do not do that.

  11. I’m currently in disagreement by almost 20 degrees with NWS on Friday’s high temp for Boston. 😉

    NWS: 70.
    Me: 52.

    Maybe I’ll be them a pizza. If I win, I get the whole pizza. If they win, they have to share one. 😉

      1. Haha not so fast. Those guys are good. 😉
        I just don’t think it’s going to end up that way. But, it’s 5 days away – so we’ll see……

        1. Yes, they are and so are you.

          I figure you might have the right temp cause its mid March, the ocean is 40F and northern New England/all of eastern Canada is snow covered, so, figure the cool air to be more stubborn than modeled.

  13. The new Tears For Fears album, “The Tipping Point” is an amazing masterpiece. It’s at #8 on the Billboard album chart and #1 in sales this week.

    These guys have given us some great songs over the years…
    Early 1980s: Mad World
    Mid 1980s: Shout, Everybody Wants To Rule The World, Head Over Heels
    1990: Sowing The Seeds Of Love.
    1990s: Some great more alternative sounding things when the band members had split and one of the founders made two albums under the band’s name.
    Earlier 2000s: Everybody Loves A Happy Ending, a great album that sounded a lot like what the Beatles would have evolved into.
    2022: This awesome new album, including this song…This is my favorite track from the album, a very optimistic song that has arrived just when we need it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzU7XYpl244

    1. Wow. This is not the genre of music I listen to now, but so glad you shared it. Turn the world around……again WOW

      1. These guys have a way of taking their “80s identity” they’re known for and keeping it current. This album to me feels like a sequel to their first album from 1982 (the one that came before their big breakthrough album).

        1. The 80s is my blind spot. I was working from home and taking care of three new babies. I don’t know the group but sure like this song

    2. Didnt even realize those guys were still around! A lesser known song by them but Break it Down Again from the early 90s might be my favorite of theirs.

      1. That song is from the “Elemental” album which was the first of 2 that were done by Roland without Curt when they had split for a number of years after their 3rd album. Roland used other musicians and those 2 albums to me are more like solo albums, but they are still excellent, including that track.

        If you ever get a chance, listen to the “Everybody Loves A Happy Ending” album from earlier in the 2000s.

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