Saturday AM Update

100 Comments

8:40AM

Disorganized storm sideswiping MA may produce an inch or 2 of snow over interior SE MA and very little in the remainder of the Boston area.

Shot of cold air follows for tonight (watch for flash freeze on untreated surfaces due to melting snow before the cold air arrives) and Sunday, followed by moderating temperatures Monday.

Mild pattern returns  Tuesday into midweek!

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy. Light snow except a few moderate bands of snow mainly SE of Boston. Accumulation less than an inch most areas, up to 1 or possibly 2 inches parts of interior SE MA. High 33-38. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Low 10-15. Wind NW 10-15 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 6. High 34.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain or snow showers. Low 29. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 45.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy.  Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

100 thoughts on “Saturday AM Update”

  2. Thanks TK. This storm system just could not get its act together and to me you had three pieces of energy. One to the west, the other giving the spotty light snow to us this morning and the other offshore of the Carolina’s and they unfortunatley for us snow lovers did not come togther. Light mixed precipitation Tues night into Wed. Maybe something next weekend that could affect eastern parts of SNE but too far out in the future to get excited about it.

  4. Thanks TK !

    Most interior locations are seeing < .05 precip today. Another week, pretty much of light, if not no precip……this dryness issue is going to get serious soon. Wait until we get a day with warm temps aloft and sunshine. Those temps are going to zoom when all the sun's energy can go to heating, as opposed to losing some to moisture evaporation, etc.

  5. Well this was exciting 🙁

    I’m determined to make the best of it though! We went to the Wayside Inn in Sudbury for breakfast and it was lovely sitting by the fire and looking out at the snow on the trees – even if it was just a dusting.

  6. Cape Cod webcams, such as Skaket beach cam, etc…..and these towns are on the outer Cape, are showing some accumulation with a decent steady snowfall. The Cape, oddly enough is going to have avg seasonal snowfall, if not end up above normal for the season.

    1. Falmouth is 3/4 mile in light snow and Chatham is 1/2 mile in snow. That banding IS setting up….its just that its about 35-50 miles further southeast right over Cape Cod.

    2. Good observation. Parts of the Cape have definitely had more snow than Boston.

      I’m also quite concerned about the dryness. At this point I don’t really care about more snow or even winter. It’s a dud, let’s face it. I do, however, have real concerns about fires in March and April! I hate rain, but a good slug of rain would go a long way in alleviating that problem.

      1. As far as climatology goes, I never rule out significant snow threats through mid April, even given the current pattern. Seen too many surprises. Though I agree odds are against it this season. Dryness will become a concern soon, I do believe. We had some decent rain earlier but things have been starting to dwindle and with no snowcover, the sun’s drying action on the topsoil and vegetation will be rather quick.

        1. Getting significant snow in April is like trying to get a hurricane to hit us in summer, it can happen but most of the time it won’t happen, and I’d be happy to make a bet we get 0 snow in April

          1. Charlie, I agree with your point and I like your anology and yet….I would never feel confident enough to say there wouldnt be snow in our local area in April. Not with frozen Hudson Bay north of us and that gulf stream south of us.

        2. You’re right, TK, 1997 comes to mind. January and February were mostly mild that year, though not as mild as this year. But, chances are we’re not seeing any more significant snow this season.

      2. Joshua I had posted here the other day and suspect you missed it that I heard we were just 3/4 of an inch below normal precip since we’ve had rain. The Sudbury river is higher than I ever remember seeing it this time of year. Hopefully if we don’t get one type of precip the other will make up for it

        1. That’s interesting, Vicki. I did notice the Charles looks OK, too, in terms of water level (in Boston). It just seems we’ve been short on precipitation. Bretton Woods, where my daughter is, is reporting having had only 33 inches of snow since October. Can you believe it? And very little rain, too, by the way.

          1. I love bretton woods area. My son and friends camp there all the time too. He used to ski there but mostly heads to killington now. It’s been tough skiing there too

  7. I feel like I’ve made this post the last 4 months around the 10th or 11th of each month……

    Temp Anomoly departures for February thru February 10th.

    (Data from Taunton NWS Climate Page)

    Logan : +6.5F
    Hartford: +8.2F
    Providence: +5.3F They’ve been radiating to the low 20s at night during this mild, dry pattern.
    Worcester: +7.4F

  8. I might have to remove the rain/snow showers from Tuesday’s forecast. I don’t even have faith in that system at the moment…………………

  9. Might be another 2-3 weeks before another big storm takes shape as we are losing the western ridging. The MJO should take over by then.

    1. Don’t worry, some other index will go into the wrong phase and negate the MJO’s influence. 😉

    2. I hope your right Scott, but I dont know. I’m starting to wonder if we’re at the very early stages of a very, very long dry streak. They (droughts), though not common in New England, have happened in our region before.

  10. I am wondering how far up on the list the winter of 2011-12 is going to be on one of the warmest on record. A brief cold shot then its back into the 40s mid week. At least the weather looks good for Wednesday as I have a flight out of here.

    1. Enjoy JJ !! Florida looks warm next week…..Low 70s north to low 80s south. I know only because my wife and kids are on the way down next week too and I’ve been checking the weather a lot the last several days for Florida.

      1. I hope you enjoy your trip JJ and that your wife and kids have a wonderful time, Tom. Are they going to Disneyworld??

        1. Nope, further south, close to Ft. Myers. The highs in that area next wk starting Tuesday are predicted to be 79, 80, 82 and 83F. Kind of makes our predicted 45F seem cold. 🙂 🙁

  11. 6 weeks till pool is opening for season, I can feel an early spring coming, by mid April we will be in the 60’s

  12. For certain, the breeze has increased steadily the last 30 minutes to 1 hr…..in the last 15 to 20 minutes, the snow has increased in intensity from flurries to light snow.

  13. This may have been the last good chance for us to get a storm. I think we are just running out of time. As Tom said the sun is getting so much stronger. I think he made a comment the other day on how hot the inside of a car gets now. So true. I had everything off the other day and had to open windows it was so hot inside. Again like I said on Thursday right now the cape will have more snowfall than Boston for the season. I remember maybe 12-14 yrs ago the cape got hit with huge storms all winter. Harvey had some guy on 11pm broadcast last night, I forget his name. He met with him maybe late fall and gave his predicton this winter, he nailed it. The only thing he did not see was all the very, very warm days. He was saying somthing about some ice breaking down and releasing moisture that will come into play for next winter. He is suspecting the next 5 winters will be more cold and snowy. I hope I am saying this right. He did say to keep an eye on Europe with all the winter weather they have got the last 2weeks. I may have got some of this wrong If I did sorry. Non event here in Pembroke snowing with just the smallest trace of snow.

    1. John I remember that year (or was it two) where the cape had all of the snow. And on the sunny days, I’ve been opening the main door on whatever side of the house the sun is on and just letting the sun shine in through the glass storm. It really makes it nice and warm. How’s the hand? Back to work??

        1. oops – sorry John didn’t see it – take your time going back to work and my grandson is doing fine – far better than his dad who we keep telling to stop feeling guilty. Tx for asking !

    3. Though it is entering the time of season that snow that does fall does not hang around, at mid February we’re not running out of time to get it.

      April 6 1982 may have been an anomaly but a powder blizzard with temps in the teens to lower 20s that late in the season tells you that anything is possible. 🙂

      1. I agree. But I am thinking we may finish this mounth on warmer temps. The weather we are having just may coast right into spring, or it may not. I do agree anything can happen and I would welcome a huge snowstorm or small one for that matter. We have not had snow in March and are due.

  14. Good grief – I just checked the weather blog on 7 and then on 4 to see what they are saying about the “storm” – I just do not understand why those comments are allowed on 4. TK assume you saw the post to you from one of the trolls saying he’d found you on FB and he’d be here soon. What sad lives these people must have.

    Either way – were you the only one who nailed this storm TK? Yes I know you said 1-2 but I also never felt you had any faith it would materialize. In my books that is as good as nailing it 🙂

    1. I saw it. And don’t worry.

      What’s funny is that this site has been available to find since last year. It was posted on WBZ during the contest, for weeks…

      The FB page has been there for almost 2 years, just started using regularly though. 🙂

      I now have an admin “staff” of 4, including myself, and 2 of them are tough girls. They have me covered. 🙂

            1. In trying to post the site on WBZ, the troll can’t even get the address right. Hilarious.

              Trolls are pretty easy to deal with when they have negative IQ’s.

    1. So often the “front” isn’t actually the front. Like when you see multiple waves that seem to be grouped coming into the shoreline, these airmass changes don’t always take place in one push. It’s often 2, or 3. Makes the argument for “baroclinic zones” vs “fronts” that much stronger.

  17. looking at some of the models and they have storms later in the week that could be big for the interior sections.

  18. Tom and Vicki I am looking forward to Florida next week. It looks like the temps will be similar to when I was there last year. Two years ago when we had El Nino it was in the 60s and sunny although to Floridians that is cold.

  19. Pete Bouchard on his morning blog and on-air has now officially given up on winter and stuck a fork in it. He sees no more snow events for the remainder of February or March. 🙁

    I will wait until the February School Vacation week (19-25th) to see what happens. I have been saying for awhile now that week will have the big snow event and lead to more snow at times in March. Barry on his blog mentioned possible snow for the same week as well. However, if nothing happens on week of the 19th, then I will join Pete in declaring winter over and 2011-12 as the least snowiest surpassing 1936-37 = 9.0″.

    1. 2011-12 = 7.8″* (so far)
    2. 1936-37 = 9.0″

    My confidence in snow for the school vacation week has dropped considerably with the +NAO, +AO and -PNA…but we will see.

    1. Once again, how Pete can see through March and make a 7 week forecast for no snow is more than puzzling.

        2. this is his first miss for the big events. And every other met I saw for this event was wrong. I suspect his forecast for end of winter was tongue in cheek since most of us has given up

        1. There is still no correlation from having a good track record over a winter and the reasoning behind a 7-week forecast. 🙂

          But, that’s Pete for you. I do like the guy, seriously. I just don’t agree with some of his practices on-air.

  20. It would be nice to have some type of log in to even see the comments on this site. We’ve became I tight community that also are more than welcoming to new bloggers. I Will have to dull down the comments and not share as much info.

    1. I have the option of making the site register and log in. I will certainly go there if need-be. 🙂

  21. I don’t think were going to have the least snowiest winter but I think this COULD end up like 01-02 06-07 in terms of snowfall.

  22. The winter following 01-02 was a snowy one with the big Presidents’ Day storm so maybe next winter will a lot better. I don’t see a repeat of this next winter so for those that don’t like the cold and snow enjoy this winter.

  23. Amazing lack of snow all winter long. Such a bummer. However I have a weird feeling that this winter will be bookended with a large storm late March, early April, to balance the one in October. History seems to dictate that on occasion. In the meantime, let’s get some more 50’s in the forecast!

  24. By the way, things are getting back to normal in most of Europe: starting Monday, 40s and rain every day for the foreseeable future in the Netherlands. The normal cold spots (Russia, Eastern Europe, parts of Scandinavia) will be seasonably cold and at times snowy. But, I keep hearing how Europe will remain in a deep freeze. That is not true. I think the same people (Bastardi et al.) who blew their forecast of our winter, are now coming out with false statements about other people’s winters. Overall, the European winter of 2011-2012, like ours, will be in record territory (top 10) as far as warmth goes. That’s right, warmth, not cold. 10-14 days of some serious cold in Europe put a dent into the mild anomalies, but did not tip the balance in favor of cold by any stretch of the imagination.

  25. I’m surprised at how little progress the cold air has made today. Its in the mid-upper 30s in Concord, NH and around 32F in Albany. I think the roads may have a chance to dry out in SE Mass before the cold air arrives.

  26. I know we are a good 6 days away, but is there a potential for something at week’s end? Like around the 17th of the month. I believe I saw that date thrown out there a couple of times in the past few weeks.

      1. I dont think so……..I interpreted it as………..the main storm track all winter has been pretty much north and west of us (except for today of course) and that with a ridge around the Davis Strait and potentially centered a bit further west, that has to force the jet stream and thus the storm track further south. I think this is the most encouraging thing I’ve read all winter with regards to hope for cold and snow.

        2. Ah … the Davis Strait. Now, there’s a cold spot. Even in summer it’s foggy, damp, and miserable. Still, I’d love to visit.

          1. A couple years ago, there was a show called Survivorman and one of his episodes was filmed from around the Davis Straits. It must have been filmed in June or July (it never got dark)and he kept saying it was cold and it rained most days. There were gigantic icebergs floating by in the ocean the whole week that episode was filmed.

            1. researching a bit, it was season 3, episode 3 and it was from baffin island, right on the Davis Strait, around 73 degrees north latitude.

  28. Like so often, I kick myself over the details! My forecast for today 10-14 days ago was better than my forecast for today 24 hours ago.

    Glad I stayed on the conservative side of the envelope of the guidance. Did good on the temps and advising on the negating impact they would have on the snow that does fall, nothing really north and west of Worcester was a good call, should have stayed lower than my 1-3″ from north to south, so that was a bit of an error for sure.

    I have been one of the last local defenders of NWS Boston. Increasingly thought it is like they are forecasting in an alternate universe. They were still talking last night about mesoscale banding and localized 8″ amounts.

    As for Pete. I don’t get a lot of what he says on air. From the snowfall amount predictions 5 days out to the 7 week forecast. You throw enough against the wall and its going to stick, but to me it becomes a bit of a credibility issue for him over time.

  29. 12z EURO does send the end of next week system south of New England…..in relation to what the long range outlook above spoke to. Well, of course….need to see more runs of this to build some consistency and with the way this winter has been, it will probably dump a snowfall on Philly and Washington, DC while were sunny and cold.

  30. If anyone is interested on the piece I saw last night go to bostonchannel.com. click on
    any more signs of snow to come.

  31. Sun now coming through here in Boston. I guess now we will have to see what the week of the 19th holds for us…possibily our last snow opportunity if it exists at all?

    1. Hmmmm…….well, where Pacini’s used to be just beyond the CVS is now called Bondo’s. I dont know if thats what your talking about. Anyhow, I understand that it is the same owners who used to own BOCA’s up by rte. 3. There’s a thread on the Marshfield Forum that has one comment raving about their food and service.

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