Monday March 21 2022 Forecast (7:08AM)

36 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)

An area of high pressure elongated from east central Canada to the US Mid Atlantic will feed us dry and cool air for the next few days. It will be breezy as well between that ridge and low pressure over eastern Canada. By Wednesday, the northern high center will be closest to us and we’ll see clouds moving in ahead of an advancing area of low pressure from the west. This low will bring us unsettled weather from Wednesday night through Friday as it moves into the Northeast and also redevelops. The system will be mainly a rain producer, though enough cold air around at the start of the precipitation Wednesday night may mean that some areas, especially interior higher elevations, can see snow at the beginning. Somewhat drier air will try to work in during Friday but it may be a slow process with the redeveloped system being slow to move away and upper level low pressure still over the Northeast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Patchy clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog early, then breaking clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)

Upper level low pressure is expected to move across the region over the March 26-27 weekend with unsettled weather and below normal temperatures meaning there can be rain and snow showers both days. Drier between this and another potential disturbance by the end of the period as temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

Eyeing the potential for a quick warm-up in the first few days of April as the pattern may re-adjust for a while, as this has shown up on several pieces of guidance more than once. However, not close to confident this will happen yet as other medium range guidance has completely different ideas. Knowing we’ll have cold in Canada and a warm US Southeast, it can go either way, or we can be stuck between the two in the battle zone still.

36 thoughts on “Monday March 21 2022 Forecast (7:08AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    6z gfs advertising a substantial snow event along about 4/2. We shall see if it still exists with 12z run. Likely it will be gone.

    1. I don’t know about that specific date, but there does seem to be some run-to-run consistency showing that the northeast is susceptible to a set-up for a wet snow event.

      I know, nothing earth shattering in that statement with it being in the late March to early April time frame. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Someone here mentioned that time frame way seems like several days ago. Interesting that it is still there!

  4. Thanks TK.

    I smelled skunk heading out the door this morning. Another sign of spring.

    According to Matt Noyes, the mosquitoes and ticks are awake now.

  11. Wind is ripping.

    Also, we had a pair of eagles circling behind our house on Friday and again today. It is beyond special how their population is increasing.

  13. Temp mid 50s but the wind is fairly steady in mid to upper teens with regular gusts into the upper 20s and low 30s

      1. No wind? I’m with a granddaughter and we tried to play outside. It was impossible. Branches coming down everywhere

  17. I’ll share these in am but in case anyone is here before that.

    It was not a good night I’m TX. Prayers for all in the way of these storms

    https://twitter.com/eweather13/status/1506086767694385154?s=21

    https://twitter.com/eweather13/status/1506087899716018176?s=21

    https://twitter.com/brianemfinger/status/1506091493211181063?s=21

    https://twitter.com/brianemfinger/status/1506064523941269511?s=21

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1506077145063325699?s=21

    https://twitter.com/jamesaydelott/status/1506069635325644806?s=21

    2. Thanks Vicki !

      That first one really captures the danger of debris, even some distance away from the tornado itself.

  18. I think the winter flow pattern had La Nina written all over it.

    Severe weather season is off to a busy start (La Nina 🙂 )

    I think we’ll be off to races, early and often for the Atlantic tropical season.

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