Wednesday March 23 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)

45 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)

High pressure tries to hang on today and does so enough to start us out with sunshine and lighter wind, but the sun will lose the battle eventually to advancing clouds as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This low will redevelop to its southeast and move up over New England on Thursday, bringing us a rainy day, but this rain will start in the pre-dawn hours as sleet for some areas north and west of Boston, especially interior higher elevations from Worcester County to southwestern NH where a coating of sleet can occur before the rain takes over. The system will begin to pull away Friday, and the wind, which will be off the ocean during the storm’s passage, will shift back to regional land breeze, meaning we will start to dry out and be milder Friday, but we won’t see complete clearing as upper level low pressure will be overhead. We’re going to be dealing with something similar as upper level low pressure takes all weekend to move through our region, along with a cooling trend, so it won’t be a stellar weekend – no washout, but slightly unsettled with a few rain and even snow showers (later in the weekend) as we see that downward trend in temperature…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight but may begin as a period of sleet north and west of Boston, especially interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH in coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A touch of rain and/or drizzle with areas of fog possible early, then a chance of a passing rain shower later. Highs 52-59. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers, even mix/snow showers possible mainly interior higher elevations. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Dry with below normal temperatures March 28-29 as the cold air from Canada wins the battle. We get back into the battle zone between that cold and warmer air to the south in the March 30 to April 1 time frame with additional unsettled weather likely being the result.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)

Eyeing the potential for a quick warm-up on the first weekend of April with warmer air winning the next battle (low confidence forecast though) before we’re back in the unsettled battle zone yet again.

45 thoughts on “Wednesday March 23 2022 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I know it falls in the medium range, by I’d like to already file a complaint over how cold next Monday looks. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    00z GFS had some fun today with this run’s projection for April 5th. 960’s mb storm.

    1. You can blame me. That’s the day I’m going to Hampton to put my feet in the water and I like a challenge. Cold air, wind, and the coldest water of the year. 😉

  2. Thanks TK.

    If this was last month, I imagine we would be looking down the barrel of a moderate/major snow event for tomorrow and a “French toast” day.

    1. Good point Philip ! In this scenario, probably a good front end thump of snow a month or 2 ago.

      And we’ll be thankful next Monday its late March and not Jan or Feb.

      That airmass next Monday is really cold. With a 50 degree sun angle, we will still struggle to get through the 30s.

      A month or 2 previous, it (next Monday) probably would be a truly frigid day of highs in the teens or even lower.

      1. Yet not as cold as it could be. I have seen it in the 20s at that time of year. We’ll get through it. We do it every Spring. 🙂

  3. Thanks, TK.

    Appreciate your comments on `spring.’ I’m not asking for sunny and warm. But, in my humble opinion (this is of course not an objective science – just a subjective perception – and so I acknowledge you have a different view on this) the weather around here, beginning tonight and lasting through the weekend, is awful. And, we’ll go through plenty of these periods over the next, say, 6 to 8 weeks or so. Transitional, to be sure, but it’s like Boston has a bad case of puberty.

    By the way, I say the same about the atrocious weather England has in late fall and winter (and sometimes summer, too). Drab and dreary. It’s March and April that often save England from having year-round misery. It’s generally the only time of year England beats Massachusetts in terms of climate.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Mark, fantastic photos of Utah. Looks like conditions were
    near perfect!

    1. Thanks Dave, I love it out there. Of course the kids don’t want to ski anywhere else now!

      We are thinking about going to Big Sky Montana next year….that has been on my bucket list for awhile.

      1. Barry Burbank always told me that Utah had about the best possible skiing you could get anywhere in the US.

  7. GFS has NO measurable snow for Boston through 4/8.

    Only looking for surprises at this point, which often do occur in Spring. 🙂

    1. B = 54.0”
      W = 53.6”

      One step closer to Boston getting #6 (in 150 years or so of official recording)? 😉

  9. It is an interesting 12z GFS depiction of a disturbance or trof from a Gulf of Maine low about 111 to 123 hrs out (with the cold blast Monday).

    Snow squall potential ?? or snow showers with a little solar heating into a very cold airmass aloft causing instability Monday morning ??

  11. Medium range guidance: The fact that 3 major models have 3 different solutions on their 12z operational runs for the final days of March & first couple days of April tells you we are back to “don’t trust the guidance beyond a few days” mode again. This is a fairly frequent occurrence and not a big deal for me, since I pretty much take this approach at all times anyway.
    There’s a reason I don’t often make huge changes in forecasts beyond 3 days – it’s all in the method and the wording. The blog gives me that luxury where a 7-day or 10-day forecast with one box for a high, low, and weather icon does not. 🙁

    1. I’m speechless.

      So, in 2017, when he was 27 or so, he was bad enough to ride the bench during the Super Bowl against the Eagles.

      Now, at 32 after a year off, he’s going to cover Tyreek Hill twice a year and other good receivers ????

      Bob Kraft, are you out there ….. wake up !! Save your team from Bill.

        1. Nah, Butler. 😉 Just a joke though. I have my doubts he will be helpful but we’ll see.

      1. She sure did. When my mother-in-law passed, a dear friend said, “Jean didn’t die…she lived.” I think you are very right that the same can be said about SOS Albright.

  14. We got so excited when we saw pansies at Lowes’s, we bought a flat of 18 plants in all kinds of colors. Now I’m wondering if we jumped the gun. Should I hold off on planting them in window boxes and possibly bring them in Sunday night-Monday night? We live in Quincy, close to Wollaston Beach, so tempered by the ocean.

    1. Pansies are hardy. The moderate frost – say, mid 20s where you are – will not be enough to kill them. Also, the frost will be rather short-lived. Two nights.

      1. Thanks, Vicki! I had just been thinking about pansies and wondering about when to plant.
        One other question/consideration: Do rabbits like to eat them?

        1. Yes and every other plant We have. They devoured our impatiens last year down to ground level, but the flowers outsmarted them and came back full bloom We were shocked

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