Sunday March 27 2022 Forecast (8:12AM)

29 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)

The last 5 days of March will contain a variety of weather. Let’s sort it out. Upper level low pressure spins over the region while drifting eastward during the next few days. Today, other than some patchy cloudiness near the MA South Coast and back over the hills of north central MA to southwestern NH, the balance of the region has dawned with a clear sky, but this won’t last, as cold air aloft will help trigger diurnal cloud development and those clouds will become dominant by midday onward. Today’s atmosphere is not quite as unstable as yesterday’s, so the chance of convective shower development is lower, but some of them that do form while being mainly rain showers may also contain wet snow and even graupel (rimed snowflakes). We’ll be cooler than yesterday as well, but the real cold air arrives tonight, with a cold front, which may bring a few snow showers, then a blast of blustery weather through Monday, a day that will feature a lot of clouds and maybe a few snow flurries, and also have a wind chill as high temps in the 30s often feel like 20s or even upper 10s at times. Tuesday, we ease the wind and lose a lot of the clouds but keep a chill as a northwesterly air flow continues between high pressure to our west and low pressure over eastern Canada. The high center will finally nudge eastward enough to allow the wind to diminish later Tuesday into Wednesday, but a warm front will be approaching on Wednesday and we’ll see the cloud cover increase from that. With enough lingering cold around, this front may generate frozen precipitation for parts of the region Wednesday night. I’m cautiously optimistic that the front will push through for a milder day Thursday, but this will come with a price which will be rain showers as a cold front approaches from the west – an unsettled end to the month.

TODAY: Mostly sunny start, then variably to mostly cloudy midday on. Isolated showers of rain and possible graupel and/or wet snow afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind WNW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts likely.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of passing snow flurries. Highs 34-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)

Upper level low pressure is expected to cross the region from west to east over the first few days of April with a transition from mild to cooler, but the greatest chance of any rainfall on April 1 followed by a drier April 2-3 weekend. We may have to watch for a disturbance with a period of precipitation on April 4 followed by dry weather April 5 but confidence on that part of the forecast is much lower.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)

Forecast confidence remains low, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring April 6-8.

29 thoughts on “Sunday March 27 2022 Forecast (8:12AM)”

    1. Haha! I doubt that. I don’t see a January snowstorm in April this time. That was a unique one. Teens & 20s all day. POWDER snow even in Boston. That was one heck of a coincidence of a major precipitation producer and deep arctic air.

      That said, the pattern does look “interesting” but I don’t see that particular threat as a major storm at this time – just a stretch of unsettled weather that can produce some frozen stuff. Boston does average measurable snowfall of over 1 inch for April, and the interior hills a few inches – so it’s not that unusual. We just don’t see it every year, and the averages are of course a little skewed by our rarer bigger storms (4-6-1982, 4-28/29-1987, 4-1-1997, for a few examples).

      1. As you can see I went with rimmed snow. Rime is ok but I think rimmed works also. I will now rename it that 🙂 🙂 🙂 😉

  9. Well Philip, the Canadian model today wants to rival the 1982 April storm for snow, this time on April 4-5. 😉

    2. That would be amazing to have the Boston vs. Worcester snow race come down to an April event.

      B = 54.0”
      W = 53.6”

      1. It’s pretty typical, in terms of climatology, since both locations average measurable snow in April. We are usually just not this close in total at this point in the season, which is really what makes it more fun. Not sure which event(s) will do it, but Worcester will finish ahead.

  10. Ran the gas out of the snow thrower and stored it in the shed this afternoon.

    O Canada.

    Thanks, TK!

  12. I brought the pansies in and put them in the chilly basement under the plant lights. Hoping this is the last hard freeze this season…

  13. Record-challenging cold Monday. Both Worcester & Boston may tie or set records for the lowest high temp for March 28.

  14. Even knowing 5-6 days now that this cold was coming today, I’m still not ready for it 🙂 🙂 🙂

    March 28th in New England. Struggling to get to 32F. Brutal !

    🙂 🙂

    1. And you know me – I’m loving every moment. In fact, later today heading to the ocean to put my feet in the water for March. 🙂

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