The Week Ahead

93 Comments

4:16PM

The quiet winter of 2011-2012 goes on. We’re looking at another rather benign week with no major cold and and no major storms. The cold blast of Sunday (which wasn’t even really that severe anyway) lingers early Monday in the form of a very cold morning, but temperatures will recover to freezing or a little above during the course of the day. Mild temperatures dominate the rest of the week with high temperatures at or over 40 pretty much daily. The only weather systems to look at will be a weak frontal system moving through late Tuesday and a weak to moderate low pressure area expected around Friday. It should be warm enough with both of these systems so any precipitation will likely be in the form of rain in the Boston area.

Forecast for the next 7 days…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 10-15. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 10.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 32-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 41-46. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 41.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 34. High 44.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 41.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 40.

93 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. One bright spot for winter lovers is that snow is forecast in the mountains Friday through Sunday. Could be a good dumping up there of fairly heavy snow, especially Friday. Just in time for the February vacation.

      1. Late winter and early spring storms can sometimes bring the most snow of the winter to NNE. Let’s hope that’s the case this year…

        1. Yes, there will be snow up there Friday to Sunday. I’m going out on a limb a little, but my best guess is for 6+ inches Friday into Saturday, with some mixing at lower altitudes, but (almost) all snow above 1500-1750 feet, and then on and off snow showers (with some moderate bursts) the rest of the weekend with temperatures cooling a bit. Boston area will see plain rain, not even a mix of any kind.

      2. Son is also. He’s at least been able to ski it 2 of the 4 times he been there this season. My older brother (70) is on ski crew at sunappee will have to give him a call to see if he’s been skiing

  2. Thank’s Tk- I also just wanted to let you know that this address was posted on bz today just so you know. If I continue to see there I can report It if you want.

    1. It doesn’t matter. For one thing, it’s not even the right one, and even if/when it is, they aren’t getting on here to cause trouble. But feel free to report the comments since they don’t follow the guidelines of blogging anyway.

        1. Basically the entire “be civil” thing. I have never posted official ones because I figured people understood them anyway. 🙂

      3. TK- I have been reporting comments over there all week. I was just telling some girl over there to use caution and I got but out.
        That is the only public forum that I post on from time to time. Like I said I reported a bunch and not sure If they can get your address but got a disturbing email to my personal address today. That blog is a joke. Thank’s.

        1. It’s not worth replying to anyone over there until CBS either changes their format or allows the individual stations to set up blogs their own way.

  5. Thanks TK. Spoke with in laws up in Maine and everyone complaining about lack of snow. So many people have well water and rely upon snow melt for summer water so that’s a big concern up there. All the plow people as well and the outdoor winter events have taken a beating.

    I have pretty much put a fork in winter!! Now hoping for nice weather to come quick!

    1. If the MJO can stay in the favorable phases, then March will be interesting. As far as the rest of this month goes, I don’t have much hope.

    2. I don’t think too many realize how many people in certain parts of the country rely on snow for more than just recreation, other than snow plow drivers. Mother Nature can be very giving but can also turn the tables on you…

  7. Good lord does the gfs temps for this week look more like mid March as suppose to mid Feb with temps everyday in the mid and upper 40’s except tommorrow with a high only around 40, have a great night everyone

  8. I grew up in upstate NY. The Lake George Winter Carnival was always a great event in February. I talked with my Dad today, and he told me that there is no ice on the lake this year. Amazing – normally there are all sorts of events on the frozen lake, including car races.

    I found a few news articles that confirmed the lack of ice. This sentence really struck me: “Ice for the ice castle had to be trucked into Lake George village.”

    1. I went to college in that area and I can’t remember a winter when the lake wasn’t frozen. Amazing to say the least.

      1. Just outside of Albany, but took many trips up the Northway to Saratoga and Lake George. Absolutely loved that area.

          1. It can be brutal up there in the winter. I was lucky enough to be up there for the Valentine’s Day storm in ’06 I think it was? Albany had just over 2ft. but some places just to the west into the Catskills had over 4ft!

    4. I grew up in Rensselaer, just across the Hudson River from Albany. I also spent four years in Postdam. Now, if the lakes and rivers in Postdam are not frozen, we are really in trouble!

      1. That’s way up there near Canada right? It wouldn’t surprise me if they weren’t frozen, or very shallow ice at the most.

        1. Yes, Potsdam is about as far north as you can go in NY. When we wanted to go to a city to see something like a concert, we headed up to Montreal.

          It was a different time then. Once we drove up to Montreal in a car that my friend recently borrowed from his mother. We were returning the the US in the early AM and the official at the border asked to look in the trunk of the car. We were all surprised to see that there were hundreds of empty bank money sacks in the trunk! My friend’s mother worked at a bank and apparently sometimes used the car to run errands on the job. Amazingly, the officer just had a good laugh along with us and sent us on our way.

          1. I also graduated from RPI -class of 1998. And grew up in Amsterdam, about 25 NW of Albany. My wife went to Potsdam as well. We sure had some great winters growing up in Upstate NY. Far cry from this year!

  9. This world is a mess! Chris Brown (Well Know Abuser of Women) performs on the Grammy’s and a crack head singing star who to pissed her talent away on more than like OD get more publicity than our fallen soldiers. Its a sign of the times I’m afraid. Very sad.

    1. I started to respond three times and deleted. It’s too late for my soapbox. I’ll simply say I totally agree

      1. I need to stop posting from my BB. My spelling keeps getting worse. Thank you Vicki for seeing my point in that mess.

        1. Sadly It seems painfully obvious to me. What’s a BB?? I never notice spelling. I seem to just read for meaning 🙂

    2. The only time you hear about the soldiers is when they leave, sadly get killed or when they return. You never hear about the struggles that they face when they come home. Struggles that they have to deal with for the rest of there lives.

  10. today will be the coolest it will be all week with highs in the the mid to upper 30s.
    tonight lows will be in the the mid 20s with clear skies
    tuesday through wednesday partly to mostly cloudy as a front moves through tuesday night. isolated rain or snow showers highs will be in the low 40s with lows in the low to mid 30s
    thursday and thursday night a storm system will travel over us or travel to our west and give us some much needed precipitation but in the form of rain as highs soar into the low50s. lows will be in the mid 30s
    friday will be clearing and drying out. with highs in the low 40s with lows in the 20s
    friday night through sunday it will be mainly clear with highs in the low 40s and upper 30s with lows in the 20s

  11. At first look, I thought someone was shaking out a rug. Then I realized it was light snow flurries ~ with emphasis on the word light!

  12. This morning feels like winter for once. I think there was more snow in the air this morning on my way to work than there was all day Saturday.

  13. It was a pretty sight seeing the few snowflakes falling earlier – of course, wish there had been more. The sun has come out in Sudbury, now.

  14. 6z GFS does show a nice storm for the mountains of Maine on Friday!! Good news for them, but whether that really occurs is to be seen.

  15. Quiet week until late Thursday.

    Generally about 0.5 QPF give or take 0.2. There is just no cold air to work with and the primary low goes up well west of New England and the secondary low ejects off the Delmarva Peninsula, but it gets going too far east and pulls down the colder air (colder air, but not cold) after the precipitation is gone. Parts of Maine could do well from this storm as far as snow goes.

    Rain in Boston Metro. North and West of 495 some rain / snow mix may be the way to go, with a lot dependent on elevation and diurnal temperatures. But see it more wet than white for most of SNE.

  16. for the late week storm . it will probably be a rain event for southern new england as northern new england gets a healthy dose of snow cold air does seem to want and come back afterwards if i am reading the models right.It seems it could be a mix of rain and snow for areas north of the pike and away from the coast. and lol look at this
    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html
    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_6z/avnloop.html
    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html
    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html#picture
    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html
    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html
    all of these seem to me as giving areas north of the pike at least a mix to start if not through the whole thing but its really early so i will stick with what i said earlier.

  17. why is the last comment that i just tried to post have it going under moderation? i am going to try and put up again

      1. Isn’t your email address and name saved automatically? Mine is already in the appropriate areas for my computer and my iPhone and iPad. I just have to hit post comment. Although I notice I have a typo in my email address for my computer and at some point TK must have approved that as well as the one I have auto filled for iPad and iPhone

        1. It is, but often times if you reload the computer or delete cookies or any number of other things, it can
          go away. If you make a mistake typing it in again,
          you get the moderation.

    2. That was the graphic on Pete B’s blog page the other day – a fork in winter.

      I don’t think I’m quite ready yet.

      1. Not me. All it takes is one 12-18 inch storm in March or early April. Until its around Mother’s Day weekend, anything is possible.

      2. Given this seasons’ track record, we could certainly say that.
        CPC forecast looks aweful. NAO forecast looks Aweful.

        BUT there are still some 4-6 weeks left where anything could happen.

        My guess is, we are DONE. 🙂 We shall see if there are
        any surprises forthcoming.

  20. because my post that i was trying to post earlier did not go through i will just say this there was about 5 models saying a mix of rain and snow for areas north of the pike as the 540 line will stay south or near the pike in the model runs.

      1. I can’t look at the GFS anymore. One run it shows potential, next run it shows something drastically different. I have given up on snow in our area for the rest of the winter but keeping an eye out for NNE and the ski areas.

  21. pockets of ice in the marsh behind my house. but there is really little water in the marsh the water is back at the river . Lowest water level i have seen durring winter there is usually at least a half to one foot of water . and usually ice covered

        1. No worries, Matt. I can set that number to whatever I want. I just had it at 5. Can always break posts into 2 if there are more than 5 links.

  23. I’m usually not too bullish about snow or my own forecast, but I think it’s all but certain that the mountains get snow Friday, and snow showers all weekend. Not just Maine. If you’re heading to elevations of over 1500 feet you will have snow. Not a gigantic amount (probably over 6 inches), but heck, anything will help. They’ve had maybe 2 inches at Bretton Woods the entire month of February!

  24. I should add one more thing: Our string of cold Sundays will continue. Not as cold as yesterday, but I think next Sunday will once again be the winterlover’s pick of the week – mid 30s and sunny (I may do my 10k rehearsal that day). While the winter’s been painful in some respects, we’ve been blessed with some beautiful Sundays.

    1. I guess Sundays are the one day in the week that even non-mets like myself can forecast right on the money, lol. 🙂

      My forecast for Sunday Feb. 26 = sunny & cold w/temps 25-35…breezy. 🙂

  25. Even though most days this winter (except Sundays) have been mild, haven’t Fridays in particular almost always been the mildest day of the week? If I am correct on that then I believe this Friday will be no exception.

  26. Gotta love the 60 degree windswept rainstorm/deluge the 12z GFS gives on 2/27. I’d never give a GFS 380 hour forecast much chance of verifying but the way this winter has gone, it’s probably got that storm nailed.

    Stick a fork in it!

      2. I saw talk of potential east coast storm with that run for Monday. I also heard the euro has backed that run up but I do not have access to it.

  28. By the way, not to put a damper on things for any of us who want this `winter’ to somehow appear, but I just looked at the Dutch weather forecast. This is the one broadcast on TV. The weatherman declared without hesitation that everyone should put away their skates; winter is over. He showed a map of Europe with isotherms and it basically told the story: The rather brief (10-14 day) shot of very cold air is a blip in an otherwise unseasonably mild winter. Within a few days, in fact, Holland will be near 50 on a daily basis, and even Moscow and the cold spots will be above normal soon. He does not expect to see that Scandinavian High again this winter. He closed by saying, after the ice melts you will not see anymore ice (basically any more (hard) frost) this winter.

  29. Look at the 12Z EURO for about 156 hours out, a snow storm of the North Carolina and souther VA, LOL!!!

    OS I saw that coastal trasnfer just like JMA talked about and that the 540 line is below us, but as you said BL temps must be high enough to overcome the colder atmosphere!!

      1. Coastal – yes, it basically heads from west to east and out to sea south of us but it is something that bears watching as it would be cold enough here for snow if it tracked further north or tried to make a turn up the coast.

        2. I had seen indications of that storm forming on previous runs of the EURO and even the GFS to some extent. It’s been gradually inching north on each run. The moisture is there and on that run anways looks like there would be cold air to support it. Next watcher? I hope so b/c that would put a fork in it for me if the Carolinas and Virginia got a snow storm.

  30. I happened to notice the GFS was suggesting some blocking setting up before the 204, then just loses it, then picks it back up later on, just going to keep an eye on that.

    1. Thank you! Great read. I guess it tells the story alright! 🙂

      I’m sure, more of the same to follow.

      1. I just want to know why, knowing this already, why did so many put so much faith in these models?

        Blog has been updated with another fairly quiet forecast…

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