Thursday April 7 2022 Forecast (7:22AM)

49 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 7-11)

We’ve a case of the Aprils – the real Aprils, not the false Aprils. Often, this month is depicted as being a month full of sunshine, warmth, and emerging flowers. While we can have plenty of days with warm sunshine, and yes we are seeing our first flowers emerge and will see many more to follow, the reality is and has always been that our weather in April is variable, often cool, and frequently unsettled. We have a case of the latter – the real Aprils – right now, as we sit in a stretch of unsettled and fairly cool (but not overly cold) weather. It can be a lot worse, like on this day in 1982 when, the day after a major snowstorm, the temperature sat in the teens to lower 20s with wind chill dipping to the single digits – all day long – while we dug out from 10 to 16 inches of snowfall. What’s going on now is far more typical. Yesterday, one storm system scooted by to our south, bringing a period of rain, and just as that one has moved out, we are already under the cloud canopy of the next system, although breaks are allowing areas of sun early today. This next system consists of a large, mature low pressure area spinning in the Great Lakes, underneath its upper level low pressure partner. An occluded front arcs out from that low and approaches us from the west today. Where its triple-point is, we’ll see a new surface low pressure area develop today, and it is that low that will move north northeastward, right across our region, tonight and early Friday, with another round of rain and even some thunderstorms. Preceding that will just be a few showers that may wander into the area this afternoon. Once the new surface low passes our area early Friday, we’ll see improvement, some clearing, and milder air, but there still can be a few pop-up showers due to cooling air aloft during the afternoon on Friday. The weekend will be when that old surface low and upper level low pressure area have to drift eastward across our region, and this means a cooling trend with additional rain shower threats. The greatest threat for the rain showers will be Saturday as that is when we will see our most unstable air. So not a terrible weekend, but definitely at least partially unsettled, especially the first half. Once we get to Monday, high pressure is in control and it’s fair and slightly milder again.

TODAY: Broken clouds allowing partial sunshine at times this morning. Generally cloudy with isolated to scattered rain showers this afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Scattered to numerous rain showers in the evening. Widespread rain showers and possible thunderstorms overnight. Fog areas. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with additional rain showers around during the morning. Partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers mainly midday-afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers mainly afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 12-16)

I still don’t completely trust “the warm up” with fair weather all the way. Chances there for a disturbance and some cloudiness and even some rainfall threat during a transition or attempt for warmer air to move in early in the period. I think we do warm up for a day or two (target April 13-14), but by April 15 already see a rain shower threat with a frontal system moving through, leading to a drier but cooler end to the period. Still not a very high confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 17-21)

Low confidence forecast of a zonal flow pattern and a couple minor disturbances bringing brief rainfall threats in a regime of mostly dry weather and seasonable though slightly variable temperatures.

49 thoughts on “Thursday April 7 2022 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  5. Thanks, TK.

    I have often seen April as a variable month, too. The saying “April showers bring May flowers” tends to be usually true. Sure, we can have very warm and sunny days in April but to me, May seems to be the month that tends to be sunnier w/more flowers and foliage. But even May can be drab and gray too. I haven’t seen any flowers around here yet. The weather is the weather and is always changeable. The biggest thing I have noticed for a long time is how a good deal of the time it is so windy.

    1. Hi rainshine. Always nice to see you here. I agree with every word…..especially the wind. April showers came to my mind also.

      I have mentioned before that the company Mac and I worked for had its week long international conference at the Copley plaza early to mid April every year. Unusually hot days were rare. We always recommend that our clients dress for cooler weather.

      We will see on May. Cooler weather seems to hold on a bit longer with the season shifts.

      1. I have often noticed that cooler weather holds on a little when the season shifts too. I use my desktop for typing, posting, etc. If I was on Facebook I would put an emoji of the sun right now. I do have an android smartphone but I don’t text on it. I don’t like texting. I always manage to hit the wrong letter or number. I prefer talking to people on the phone, anyway.

        1. You sound like my wife. 🙂
          I’d much rather text than talk on the phone.
          Although, I spend more time correcting the typos as I tend
          to always hit the adjacent key instead of the intended key.
          The keypad is way too small for me.

  8. Radar possibly suggesting a thunderstorm in southern VT at this early hour ?

    Definitely some nasty looking cells in the northern half of Florida. Colors suggest possible hail producers?

    1. Looks nasty on radar, but my lightning detector is not showing any lightning in that area.

        1. thanks Jp Dave !

          2 hot spots to watch.

          One active now and the mid Atlantic later today, I guess.

          I think we might see some good elevated convection overnight (thunder and lightning).

  11. Northwestern Europe underwent a transitional phase last week. These transitions tend to be gradual there, which is very different from here. So, after a ~14 day period in which a stationary area of high pressure over Scandinavia produced glorious spring-like weather (even summer-like in spots), the high shifted east, allowing lows to penetrate. At first – last week – those lows took an unusual route south and then meandering as they weakened over land on a northeasterly trajectory. This meant a little snow and some cold rain most of last week, but also some sunshine and cold nights. And now it’s back to the usual southwesterly pattern. This means the lows don’t weaken much as they approach the Netherlands from the North Sea (after having done damage across the British Isles). They produce abundant wind (gale force once again!) and rain showers (spitting rain for the most part). Temperatures do NOT oscillate much once a pattern settles in. Precipitation chances don’t change much from day to day either. Hardly ever a wash-out rainy day, but lots of hit or miss showers, glimpses of the sun for, say, 15 minutes, and lots of overcast skies.

  13. I have the masters playing while I do stuff. It’s the Tiger show. I am really happy to see him back, but there are others playing. This isn’t new. You had to work really really really hard to bother Mac. But he felt the focus on Tiger spoiled the game for tv viewers.

      1. Haha. I’ll have one!
        NCAA hockey finals. Always a fun tournament. I’m watching the games too, although the first one on a bit of a DVR-delay.

  15. Azaleas are not in full bloom yet either. They always were for the masters and would just be past on our yearly trip to Charleston. They did have a freeze. I’ll some more checking with friends in the area

  16. The Frozen Four is fantastic. I’m biased, because I like hockey so much. But, I find college-level hockey better than college-level basketball.

      1. I love watching hockey far more than basketball. I never could get into basketball.

        I played hockey all the time until I was 40.

    2. As someone that’s been a season ticket holder for a local College hockey team for over 20 years, I concur.

    3. I love college hockey. College basketball is OK (better than NBA), but I only follow the big tournament mainly because I am usually in a pool or two. 😉

    4. When I was at Clarkson University (then Clarkson College of Technology), hockey was THE THING!

  17. Tiger finished at -1 The leader is at -4, so I guess we could say at this point he is in the running.

    2. Son, Charlie, I think deserves a lot of credit for getting his dad back on the course. Such a great lesson for a wonderful young man

  19. Boarding a plane after an almost 5 hour weather related delay…. Relieved it was not canceled as at least 5 flights were just while we were sitting there….

Comments are closed.