Winter’s Vacation

166 Comments

9:47PM

Another outlook with no major storms. A few days of very mild temperatures dominate through Friday. One weakening low pressure system passing by the region today and a second slightly stronger low tracking over New England and redeveloping just to the south Thursday night and early Friday will be about all the weather action that will take place. A cooler, quiet Presidents Day Weekend is expected as another storm passes south of New England.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-37 tonight & Wednesday night. High 43-48 Wednesday. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. High 41-46. Wind NNE 5-10 MPH shifting to SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Low 35-40. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers early. High 44-49. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 42.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 37.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

166 thoughts on “Winter’s Vacation”

  1. Thanks TK! 🙂

    According to Todd’s evening blog, we are 3 degrees off the pace for the warmest February on record. 🙁

  3. I posted this earlier!! Winter has yet to show up in my eyes.

    I think the dry ground will an an issue as we get into early spring. Looking out two weeks not many big precip makers and that takes us into march. I still think in a pattern like this with cold bottled up north and an active southern jet stream we could end having a march snowstorm. But by April we very well might end up 4 inches below normal if we continue this split on the northern and southern streams.

    1. If we run below normal in precipitation through April we will for sure have high fire danger in Spring and possibly drought or at least near drought by late Spring, at least in terms of topsoil moisture, not necessarily water supply.

  5. Next time I see snow forecast for October around here, I will be moving to northern New England for that winter.

  7. Before anybody gets TOO excited about the 00z GFS, I traced the energy responsible for the Sunday forecast and at the same time (00z Wednesday), it looks quite different from the previous few runs and is also handled differently. Suddenly the model wants to phase the streams? The entire thing looks odd to me. If this solution starts to get support from the Euro for a few runs, then we’ll talk…

  8. Perhaps the NWS in Upton was onto something! Tonight’s GFS is showing the phasing that last night’s Euro had! Way too early to write this thing off.

  9. If that run verified, we are talking a widespread 12-18″ in SNE that would put a serious dent in some of our snow deficits. Freeze that run for 4 more days! I agree though, need to see other models latching onto this before we get too excited. The Euro had a nice phased storm last night – will it bring it back? I’m not staying up to find out!

    1. The Euro from 00z Tue and the GFS from 00z Wed, though they both have phasing, go about it in a different way, so I don’t count them as being “in agreement”. The Euro’s was a southern stream dominant system that got energized when phasing occurred with the northern stream at the coast. The GFS’s is an overdevelopment of a northern stream feature in which the 500mb low tracks in a text book fashion to send the surface low and then the upper low in the perfect places to crank out max snow in SNE. The odds of this run verifying I’d say are about 1 in 50.

  11. Well, didn’t the GFS send SNE a bone to chew on today? Its solution, while just at the edge of where I have found the GFS to have a little better than usual reliability this winter, I cannot buy into. I don’t like what it does with the Great Lakes Trough and its sudden phasing is without support even from its own ensemble mean. It does have some support from its individual ensembles, about 33% of its members show support for the 00z op run. . The GFS MOS Ensemble Product which puts out 20 perturbations of the GFS MOS has only 50% support for its Operational MOS Output. It has no support from the ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GGEM, GGEM ENS., or UKMET. The 6z GFS also backs off the solution, but if I am not buying the 00z, I am surely not going to by the 6z. That said because the GFS is such a go to model for so many and a true rip and read product for TV Mets, you may hear a lot about this storm, and prudence would say at least keep an eye on it, but the going forecast for the weekend should remain unchanged in my opinion.

  13. Btw not saying the GFS will be right but the 00z run had sampling from a winter reconnaissance mission. Something to chew on.

  15. today : areas of light snow and rain showers pockets of freezing rain in the morning then partly mostly to partly cloudy highs in the upper
    tonight through thursday mostly cloudy highs in the high 40s with lows in the upper 20s
    thursday night mostly cloudy, rain and snow showers no accumulations lows in the low 30s
    friday mostly cloudy rain and snow durring the morning no accumualtions highs in the upper 40s to low 50s
    friday night mostly to partly cloudy lows in the 20s
    saturday mostly sunny highs in the low40s
    saturday night to tuesday night mostly sunny highs in the mid to upper 30s lows in the 20s
    I am looking at models and they are in disagreement . I would want to see more models looking like the gfs before i would get excited about it.

  16. Joe Bastardi tweet….

    major coastal low pressure for president weekend and threat heavy snowstorm for east. Unlike last week, sfc low will be established

  18. Oh well. Here we go again!
    That 0Z GFS run was a real teaser!!!
    The 06Z GFS backed off that. The 0Z Euro still has a Southern
    System that takes a walk out to sea.
    The 0Z Canadian and the 0Z JMA also take the Southern route OTS.

    We’ll see what the 12Z Runs have to say, but right now that 0ZGFS runs looks like
    it was pure fantasy. 🙂

  20. I think it was either a NWS or HPC discussion said yesterday that with the uncertainty of this setup, we may not know until a day or 2 before the event what will actually happen. If that’s true, it will certainly be a rollercoaster ride thru the end of the week!

    1. The 12Z NAM has a juicy system in the Gulf at 84 hours:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F15%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      And IF I am reading the 500MB chart correctly, no signs of phasing yet:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F15%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      Will it go OTS? OR will it curve up the coast?? The BIG question.

      Waiting for 12Z GFS

        1. I’m not a pro at reading these and I hope TK or JMA will chime in, but it sure does NOT look like the Northern and Southern stream want to phase up.

          Look at the Northern stream coming in off of the Pacific.
          How will that catch up with the Southern System in time? I don’t think so. Southern system goes OTS!

          We’ll see! 🙂

    1. can some one clarify what scott posted . looking at it it seems we will be in phase 1 for the next day or two then we will be in phase 2???

  23. Joe Bastardi annoys me, thoroughly. Why? He never ever admits he’s wrong, or was wrong, and so often he is wrong.

  24. A bit discouraging that this friday’s weather maker is looking more and more like it won’t make that big of an impact up north. I know a couple inches at best is better than nothing, but a blockbuster is desperately needed.

  25. 12Z GFS has PHASING!!

    Surface:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F15%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=102&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    500MB (sure looks phased up to me)
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F15%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=102&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    Now what????? Hey TK, want to come along for the ride yet? 🙂

      2. 🙂
        We need to see if 12Z Euro is on board. IF that run still has
        an OTS scenario with NO Phasing, then there is a big difference in the way the models are handling the atmosphere. GFS
        phases the streams to allow a recurvature up the coast, while the Euro does not phase, allowing system to head OTS South of us.

        We have had trouble getting phasing all Winter long. WILL it
        happen this time? Who knows. Let’s see what Euro has to say
        a little later.

        1. One thing going for us is that the EURO did indeed have this solution a few runs ago. It may have gotten to this solution in a different way but still the same outcome. If it hadn’t, then I would be more skeptical. Granted it backed off, but maybe, just maybe it was on to something?

  26. Jim Cantore @JimCantore

    What a game! NEW GFS raises. Sticks w/ coastal event albeit RAIN 4most except Boston #snow. EURO your move: mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc…

    1. ROTFLMAO! 🙂

      That sure sounds like Cantore! Again, Waiting on that Euro.

      TK still not interested in roller coaster. We’ll have fun with it just the same. 🙂

  27. I suspect NCEP may need to check model initialization entry for a corruption in the balloon data. Poisoned runs at 00z and 12z but agreement with better guidance at 18z and 06z has me suspicious.

    1. Tk,
      You will feel better one way or the other when the 12Z Euro is out.
      OTS scenario confirms ALL of your thoughts and concerns.
      If it phases and has it coming up here, you may forced to join the ride. 🙂

        1. Wxrisk.com
          ‎12Z GGEM — new CANADIAN — IS OUT– it has TOTAL FLAT WAVE.. not only does this model say the GS is on crack it doesnt have the 90% RH reaching the VA NC Border …
          LikeUnlike · · Share · 12 · 31 minutes ago ·

  28. I LOVE roller coasters! Even the ones that spin you around and upside down and whip you through a darkened tunnel with strobe lights!

    But I’d even settle for a kiddy go-kart at this point.

    It is at least fun to have something to chew over and keep an eye on, haven’t had much of that this year.

  29. Snow??? Hahaha winters over 🙂 enough of this, I’m not getting pulled in only to smash the hearts of snow lovers like myself, I’m telling ya folks the modelscr just dangling the carrot for someone to run and take it, have a great day everyone 🙂

    1. I love carrots! lol. This whole winter I’ve felt like a rabbit chasing a carrot, never actually being able to catch it…

  31. The fact that TK is on here posting today give me hope for this storm. Even though he is not on board with it.

    1. And this should give you even more hope – Henry M. is writing off the weekend storm. It’s in the bag now!

  32. There is a large fly sitting (or whatever flies do when they’re not flying) outside on my windowpane in the middle of February. How random is that!

  33. Wxrisk.com
    ‎*** 12z european *** wow same as last night … a tad FURTHER SOUTH– NO precip N of DCA at all… west and sw VA gets a good snow… RIC rain ending as snow

    1. Wunder Map of Euro at 123 Hours, closest pass: UGH! as Tk Chuckles 🙂

      http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.32270&lon=-71.08470&zoom=4&type=terrain&units=english&rad=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=0&pix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=123&mm.opa=100&ndfd=0&fire=0&hur=0&ib=1&mits=0&dir=0

      The battle of the models and the SPLIT STREAMS! 🙂

      I guess since the Euro is not on board that this fantasy storm is OFF THE GRID! UGH! 🙂

      1. I’m going to have to stop this. Too many ways to screw up!
        That was the 0Z run. Not a lot of difference with the 12Z run.

  34. Well,

    12Z model consensus, keeps the streams split and takes this system
    out well South of us.

    It does, however, place the low in a dangerous position along the SE coast.
    Should something change, it would be in position to move up the coast. 🙂
    yeah, sure!

    Given this season, GBAGL! (good-by and good luck)

  35. I am going to talk to a couple of people at NCEP MDL. I think the GFS must have absorbed something bad into its data stream. I know we all make fun of it, but fact is, it is not this bad inside 120 too often. Something’s up. If I learn anything, I will share.

    1. Thank you JMA.

      Would be curious to know.
      Funny that is seemed better on the 06Z run, but not on the 0Z and the 12Z
      runs?? Very odd, indeed.

  38. Wouldn’t a positive to neutral NAO not allow this to be a southern storm. No blocking which should not suppress this storm? I think the issue might end being a rain storm bc it moves too far west bc of the lack of blocking!

    1. Hadi, I seem to remember someone saying yesterday or the day before there were indications of at least some blocking taking shape. Don’t know if that may have something to do with it.

  39. carl parker @parkertwc

    wow! HPC says “disregard” latest GFS due to poor initialization, and latest Euro is lackluster; for now, confidence is low on NE storm

  40. I talked to my sister in law in atlanta two nights ago and they were expecting freezing rain and temps in 30s with maybe some snow in the northern part of the state – amazing. The funny part is she has called here several times this year to say they were having unexpected warm temps around 60 and I’ve been able to tell her ours are pretty much the same.

  41. When the GFS does finally show a good sized snow storm, we assume the model is in a way broken…
    I still have yet to get my hopes up on this one.

  42. As I understand it the models work by comparing all of the current data to scenarios in the past, thinking that what happened before is liable to happen again. (This is a VERY simplistic summary, lol). Each model has stored in it every possible tid-bit of data collected going back as far as we have had technology and record keeping to collect it. Then it looks at all of the closest scenarios to the current scenario, and moves it ahead a few hours, then does the same with the new data set.

    Of course, the weather is based on so many trillions of bits of data that there will never be a ‘same’ scenario as whatever is current, so each model progression will differ from what will really happen more and more. Each day, each week, each year, the new data, and the new results from it, add to the database, so the model ‘learns’ and improves over time. Perhaps in a few thousand years they will be able to nail this stuff, lol.

    Anyway, we do keep seeing models suggesting a storm 10-15 days down the road, and then it fizzles out. My hunch is that since the models are based on the history of a region over a period of time, it is bound to ‘revert to the mean’ as it projects into the future. It doesn’t allow for abnormal patterns to keep hold of a season, it is built to relate all of the current data to what has happened in the past.

    And in the past we usually had snowstorms.

    Does that make sense?

  43. Oh I hope there is, lol. But that would explain why we keep seeing teasers way ahead on the models and poor TK has to be the one to deflate us all each time.

    I bet that if you let the GFS run on and on, looking ahead for months at a time, it would end up exactly matching the statistical average weather day after day. That’s what has happened the most often, so that’s what it will find.

  44. That trough ridge trough set up is not what we want for a snowstorm, especially to what the GFS had been printing.

    1. 18Z NAM surface at 84 Hours:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F15%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      500MB:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F15%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      Is there a hint of some phasing coming together here? OR is it more of the same with NADA! and eventually this will prog OTS!?????

        1. Sorry, I forgot this for some reason will NOT LINK!
          If you copy and paste into a browser window, it will come out AOK. It has system just to our South. It does
          bring precip to our area. Hmmm….

  46. Mother Nature just isn’t cooperating. Perhaps something will change. I doubt it, but we keep hoping and looking…. 🙂

  49. I still am holding on to my belief that we will get the snow we all want in March – ok, maybe late March. Or even April. Hey – we got an autumn snowstorm in Oct. Why not a spring snowstorm in April? I wouldn’t like that, ‘though. It could hurt a lot of the plants, trees, etc.

    1. I believe time is just running out ,,12 days till March, as for April sure it can snow but in general it doesn’t snow in April, even March it has trouble snowing, I think this March will be like 2010 and like last yr, little if any snow, I’m wondering if this March we get no snow again when does it become not an anamonly that no snow fall in march? Have a great day 🙂

  50. NWS clearly has no interest or anything to do with the GFS! Lol

    ECMWF HAS THE SOUTHEAST SYSTEM STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
    AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC INSTEAD. FINALLY THE CANADIAN MODEL
    SEEMS TO DISSOLVE THE SYSTEM ENTIRELY. ONE CAUTION WITH THE
    GFS…IT HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING THIS SYSTEM WITH EACH RUN SO HAVE
    ZERO CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL AT ALL. THEREFORE DECIDED TO KEEP WHAT
    PREV FORECASTER HAD AND BLEND IN HPC. SO DID A 50/50 BLEND OF PREV
    FORECAST AND HPC AS MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE. BELIEVE THAT THERE
    IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

  52. TK I need a forecast for Burma from around march 8-18. Let me know what you think when we get closer. I know hot and humid but not sure on precip . Thanks!!

        1. The GFS has been crappy for years. The older version was better before they made a bunch of changes to it.

  57. For once I want one of those snowstorms where most models agree 4-5 days out and the only details left to discuss are who gets what and how much

    2. I’m sorry Hadi, do mind updating me on where the EURO was prior to this run. Does further north and west mean an inside runner, or just that it’s in the ballpark now?

  59. The euro op run was south, but the ensembles are further north, not inside either. But the key is that op disagrees with ensembles which raises questions just like when the GFS op run disagrees with the ensembles. Could the 00z euro come further north is the question

  61. Sunday forecasts for the next 24 hours are going to be interesting…one way or the other. My bet is models will be all over the place as usual.

  64. Boston is 40F…..Cape Hatteras is 47F….. Miami is 72F……..I know its only Wednesday, but it seems like the bigger temp contrasts over the next many days is from the mid-atlantic to the southeast……not the mid-atlantic to the northeast. I think this favors the storm track to be further south near that bigger temp contrast.

    1. I would agree but will the same temp profile presist into the weekend? If so then we that’s something to think about. If not then we keep searching.

  65. Todd’s evening blog over on BZ was a good read. He made a good point that a piece of energy that will play a role in Sunday’s storm is still over the Pacific Ocean. Until this comes into the US we may not know the exact details, and it’s those details that will make or break it for us

    1. I’ll mention too that the piece of energy in the northern stream that is depicted to interact with the southern stream depicted on the GFS is still way up in the arctic circle…just something to think about

  67. I have been noticing that Melissa over on the WBZ blog is known as “MILF”. I have no doubt it is more troll crap, but what does it mean?

  68. “Mother I’d like to (you fill in the blank)”. Extremely disrespectful. That blog needs some serious moderation.

    1. Not only moderation, they need to block people for good who post such crude remarks! ‘Extremely disrespectful’ is an understatement!!!

  69. Oz NAM is very juicy at 84 hours with a low just off Cape Hatteras. Looks like it delivers some heavy snow to northern Virginia and possibly extending as far north as southern NJ. There is a definite NE movement to the precip field in the last several frames. It looks like it would miss us if you extended it out, but a VERY close call.

  71. I was just going to make that comment Mark. Extroplate out and it’s a miss to the south. Delivers a nice dumping of snow to central VA and northern Virginia. Very juicy but doesn’t look to head north but rather east.

    1. To me, that NAM run looks more promising, and closer to the 12z UKMET solution, which had the same idea as the GFS, only it wasn’t quite as far NW. The precip shield looked to be heading more on a NE trajectory than the Euro and Canadian which pretty much sent the storm due east and out to sea.

  72. Mark/Longshot…thanks, I reported that comment. That remark has always shown up almost daily under Melissa’s posts most of this winter. I wonder if WBZ (or even Melissa) knows what it means because to the best of my knowledge it has never been deleted.

    1. I have not been to the BZ blog in quite a while, but from the comments like yours I assume no one is monitoring that board.

  74. 0z GFS keeps the stakes high and hits the benchmark at 90 hours. Another great run for snow in SNE. GFS has been generally consistent with this solution for 5 straight runs now!

  75. GFS has actually backed off significantly and now has a much weaker storm. Down from its absurd 1.5QPF Boston Worcester Springfield to 0.4 QPF throughout the same area.

  76. Wow! Channel 7 goes all bat crazy about a big snowmaker Sunday-Monday, comparing it to the October storm. Didn’t catch the others, but seems bold at this point….

  77. Todd on BZ hedged a little tonight which is about all he (or anyone else) can really do at this point. He favored the OTS solution, but did not rule out the up-the-coast and over the BM scenario.

  79. My apologies on the above post, it actually goes SE of the benchmark. Definitely not as strong as previous runs, but it keeps it all snow for most/all of SNE with what looks like potential for 6″+ from S and E of a Hartford-Boston line.

  81. The latest gfs run shows only around a quarter-half inch of precip, it’s possible we might be on the extreme northern fridge of precip and squeeze out 1-2 inches of slushy snow esp south of Boston, temps look marginal at 32-33 degrees, I don’t know I just don’t see or believe this will be significant unfortunately 🙂

    1. S and E of a Boston-Hartford line, it delivers .5-.75 QPF with over .75 QPF on the immediate south coast. From what I can tell, it looks like all snow so 6″+ is a possibility on this run. N & W of Boston doesn’t fare as well.

      Even 2″ would be “significant” this winter!

  82. At this point it looks like the 0zNAM, 0zGFS, and 12z UKMET are all in general agreement with the placement of the low off the NC coast around 84 hrs and NE track to SE of the benchmark. I would be surprised if the Euro didn’t adjust north at least somewhat with the 0z run.

    I like the general trend. Just yesterday it looked like this storm would miss by 1000 miles.

  83. I don’t remember the book but it said that it snowed on June 4th 1871 around 3 inches in Hartford Ct temps were in the lows 30’s, I’m wondering could this be true? Also it would never snow in June now, haha it was just a thought 🙂

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