Saturday April 9 2022 Forecast (7:55AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 9-13)

The weekend is upon us, and this second weekend of April will feature “OK” weather by the standards of many people, but far from ideal. But we must keep in mind as I often mention, that the spring season in many parts of the US, including our own area, is a time of variability and volatility, the result of those lessening but lingering pushes of cold air from Canada as the winter snow cover retreats battling with the early pushes of warmth and humidity invading areas to our south. We sit in the battle zone often, and will do so in the days ahead. I never bought an often-advertised multi-day warm up to the 70s, and I still do not. But let’s back up a bit and look at this weekend. We have to deal with upper level low pressure which has to traverse the Northeast from west to east, and will do so through Sunday. With the core of this upper low still to the west today, we’ll see a surface low pressure area quickly develop and move right across New England, the center passing just west of the WHW forecast area midday and afternoon. We’ll see 2 rounds of showers and potential thunderstorms as this system passes through – the first later this morning moving generally south to north along a warm front, and another during the afternoon along a cold front that swings through from west to east. The greatest concentration of showers and possible thunderstorms should occur near and north of I-90, and a few of them may contain brief downpours of rain and even some small hail. By later afternoon, it’s gone, and we quiet down for evening. During Sunday, the upper low will be continuing its trek across the region, so after a sunny start, we’ll see lots of clouds developing with a few rain showers possible during the afternoon, before these dissipate with the setting sun. During the first half of next week, we’ll sit near a frontal boundary once again, so the previously-advertised sunny warm stretch you may have caught via some media (not here) will not really be how things play out. As previously stated, when we are in this pattern, we have to watch for disturbances running along the boundary, and we have to watch for the impact the colder ocean water has on our region, especially coastal areas. Monday, a small bubble of high pressure passing just to the south of us, with our region on the northern side of it, means a general westerly air flow and fair/mild weather, but the wind field should be weak enough that a few coastal areas may flip to a sea breeze during the day. Monday night, a disturbance from the west comes along with more clouds and the chance of a little bit of light rainfall. This exits Tuesday leaving us with partial clearing and while it warms up inland we’ll need to watch for onshore breezes at the coast where it can be considerably cooler. While other forecasts advertise fair and warm weather for Wednesday, I’m not nearly convinced of this, as we may see yet another disturbance bring clouds, potential showers, and again a cooler coastline while it’s mild inland. There’s still enough uncertainty heading toward midweek that some adjustment to that part of the forecast may be needed.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers passing by south to north mid morning to midday. Variably cloudy remainder of day with additional rain showers and possible thunderstorms passing through from west to east, a few of which may contain small hail, coming to an end by late in the day. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH during the morning, shifting to SW-W during the afternoon, with a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny start, then variably cloudy. Scattered showers afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then partly sunny. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 inland. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 14-18)

A stronger low pressure area may track west and north of our region April 14-15 with a varying amount of cloudiness and eventually a shower potential. The trend is for a cooler westerly air flow for the April 16-17 weekend, but this part of the forecast is lower confidence, as is the end of the period when we may have to watch for a coastal disturbance with the threat of rainfall and even the potential for some inland mix/snow as colder air may be around at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 19-23)

This part of the forecast also continues to be low confidence. Leaning toward the zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple unsettled weather threats difficult to focus and time so far in advance.

70 thoughts on “Saturday April 9 2022 Forecast (7:55AM)”

  4. If you want one example of the lower confidence forecast, the two supposedly best medium range models once again have very very different ideas of how the weather plays out starting as early as day 4 (hmmmm where have we heard THAT before???). You can make an argument for this going either way (the 2 scenarios shown), but recent history would indicate leaning a little closer to the GFS scenario might be the best bet this far out.

  9. Pimento cheese, tuna and egg salad sandwiches made as we watch Masters today. Just us chickens, but it is fun to make some of the Masters favorites. CBS starts live coverage at 3:00, so I’m hoping that it covers all players.

  10. Thanks TK.

    We have had several big booms of thunder here over the past 10 minutes and a heavy downpour. Very dark out.

  12. Very sad news. Dwayne Haskins was struck by a car and died. He was 24. He played for Ohio State before becoming a professional QB. I believe he started out with the Redskins (sorry, Football Team) and was going to be a back-up (?) for the Steelers.

    1. Correction…just had another couple big rumbles of thunder. This developing surface low overhead has some energy!

      1. Big thumps here also. More over daughters house in Uxbridge. She seems to be right under the cell

        Can you please shift the track of the one over you now a tad west

  16. Thanks TK. This day in weather history goes back to 1996 with accumulating snow for a good chunk of SNE. It even snowed at Yankees stadium for their home opener that day. What a winter the 95-96 winter was.

    1. Very snowy April that year. I shoveled substantial snowfall about 3 times in April 1996.

    1. I also got pics & video from a close friend of mine in Milford of this event.

      That was a very healthy hail core.

      1. A friend in Uxbridge posted significant hail. My daughter didn’t mention it so I assume did have any. I do know the thunder was far stronger there than here

  18. After a break of sun, Round 4 of wind and rain underway. Not going to be getting much yard work done today…

  19. Here in Sudbury it got very dark and then it poured. Now the sun is coming out and the sky looks awesome w/the blue sky and clouds. And we just got a big boom of thunder. My sister in Framingham got the brunt of it – hail covering the cars (wish she took a picture of it) w/lots of thunder, rain and lightning. The major part of the storm must have gone just to the southeast of us here in Sudbury.

  22. Not sure if my post was in moderation but will try again.

    Just had a thunderstorm roll through Pepperell with some hail. Most I have ever seen in person. Ill post pics but not sure if it’ll go though

  24. So far, all of the shower and thunder storm activity has
    traversed SW to NE WEST of the city.

  26. With the changes from rain to storms, we have even watching for rainbow all day. Being Mac’s Masters weekend and 44 years since he proposed to me. Leave it to Mac to send a rainbow in a way we’d least expect

    https://imgur.com/a/UT3ASKG

  27. My sister called and said a second storm dumped more hail over everything. Weird weather for sure.

  30. On radar it appears most of the heavy rain/ thunder is moving “just” N & W of Boston. Just lighter rain so far.

  32. Jean..,,,Masters coverage on CBS is excellent and as it should be. Next year maybe it can cover all four days.

  34. Chris M .. I don’t have any posts in moderation from you. Not sure what is going on there. Try posting one link at a time again if you want. If it doesn’t work, I’m guessing it’s a WordPress glitch. No shortage of those lately…

  35. If the GFS trends are right, there will be people wishing they didn’t put their shovels away yet. 😉

  36. This tweet was from earlier in the week but dont think much has changed since then. These are the latest eastern region snow totals:

    NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    [2021/22 Winter] Here’s the updated @NWSEastern
    climate site seasonal snowfall ranking.

    #Boston continues to have the highest snowfall out of our 4 #climate sites, with 0.4 inches more than Worcester. #snow #MAwx #RIwx #CTwx

    https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1510825910257160203?s=20&t=iOrJ0clBcRBrCx8gaRpMkA

  37. I found this tweet and photos from Stan Collins in Newfoundland fascinating. It is almost “iceberg season” there. These pictures were actually taken two years ago.

    Stan Collins
    @stan_sdcollins

    These icebergs arrive from Greenland every spring, and some are very large. It takes two years for them to travel here. Some years we see none, and other years there can be as high as 1,500 pass by our shores. Iceberg sightseeing tour boats are very popular with tourists.

    https://twitter.com/stan_sdcollins/status/1510964559099617287?s=20&t=Kb2_UGze7qYF8C9Mck4RQA

    1. That is fascinating. I just showed to grandkids and daughters. Nature is absolutely amazing. Thank you for sharing.

      My 10 year old granddaughter said it made her think of snow rollers. They had little snow rollers in their yard this year.

  38. Thanks, TK,

    Thunder, torrential rain, and lots of hail during my rehearsal in Newton this afternoon. I had a great view of it all through the large window in the second-floor studio!
    It was extremely slippery underfoot when I had to step out slightly after the peak of it: lots of hailstones, some in puddles and some on wooden outside steps. Happily, I didn’t go flying.

  39. According to Jacob this morning, colder temperatures for Easter and thereafter. The latest 8-14 day CPC supports this as well.

    TK – Does this lead to the GFS snow potential you’ve been hinting at?

    1. It looks colder, yes.
      And while colder than normal temperatures do not necessarily increase snow chances in mid winter, as warmer than normal doesn’t either, that changes a bit for late-season events. Colder than normal is definitely going to help you with April snow potentials. 😉

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