DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 11-15)

There are a lot of things to sort out for the next several days as we head toward the half way point of April, so let’s get to it! First, a bubble of high pressure brings fair weather to our region today, with lots of sunshine – a nice change after several days of unsettled weather under an upper low. But the fair weather is short-lived. A low pressure area heading eastward, destined to pass to our north, will bring its warm front across the region late this evening with some light rainfall, with low temperatures occurring in the late evening before holding steady or even rising a little overnight in the warm sector. This low’s cold front will quickly swing across the region from west to east with a few additional rain showers until about midday Tuesday, and after its passage we will see a return to sunshine. As can be the case around here, it will be noticeably warmer behind the cold front as we will be experiencing atmospheric conditions that allow a significant warming at the surface – a drying westerly wind and full, high-angle sun, after not having the benefit of either while we are in the warm sector during the pre-dawn and early-morning hours. Tuesday night we do get a delivery of cooler air both from the normal exit of daytime heating from the lower atmosphere as well as advection of cooler air on a northwesterly breeze. Wednesday will turn out cooler than Tuesday, especially along the coast, as we quickly lose the gusty land breeze in favor of a variable to onshore breeze ahead of an approaching warm front from the next low pressure system. Clouds return during Wednesday, with an eventual rain threat as the front nears later in the day and at night. The forecast dilemma I have about this next system is trying to determine whether or not that warm front gets across the entire WHW forecast area. If yes, we break into warm air Thursday for several hours. If no, we’re rather cool, cloudier, and possibly wet. If somewhere in between, well, then we end up with one of those big temperature ranges that New England can be famous for in the springtime, along with a variety of weather ranging from overcast to sunny, depending on where you are. Right now, my leaning is somewhat optimistic, in that we get the front to come through at least most of the region for at least a few hours, so my forecast will reflect this, leaving the possibility open that northeastern MA and southeastern NH don’t get quite that lucky – and then the forecast will likely need adjustment ahead. Friday, we’ll be back into a mild westerly air flow as the larger parent low pressure area goes by to our north, and this looks like it will be accompanied by dry weather, which is great news if you’re a baseball (especially Red Sox) fan – opening day at Fenway Park!

TODAY: Sunny – some high clouds appearing later in the day from the west. Highs 58-65, but turning cooler in some coastal areas by mid-late afternoon. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH this morning, diminishing to under 10 MPH and shifting to SW this afternoon except for local sea breezes developing in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Light rain at times late evening and overnight. Lows 44-51. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing and becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain by later in the day. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Highs 50-58 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 65-72 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may stay E in some southern NH and northeastern MA areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 16-20)

A lot of uncertainty for the April 16-18 period which for some is Easter weekend and also leads to Patriots Day often known as “Marathon Monday”. There are indications of a significant cool-down and eventual unsettled weather, which may even include some higher elevation snow. Model guidance is variable and inconsistent and is not of much help now. Fine-tuning will be required. Looks fair and quieter toward April 19-20.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 21-25)

No big changes in my thought process for this forecast period. Low confidence forecast leans toward an upper level pattern that is mostly a zonal (west to east) flow, but with cooler than average temperatures winning out but still with warmer air not that far away. Battle zone means a couple additional unsettled weather episodes.