Not Biting

123 Comments

3:03AM

No doubt you’re already hearing talk of a possible weekend storm. Though there is some evidence of this even for this area, I’m not biting yet. The only change to the previous forecast is to introduce more cloud cover for Sunday as the storm passes south of the region. No other changes at this time to the previous discussion and forecast.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly sunny. High 42-47. Wind NNE 5-10 MPH shifting to SE.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Low 35-40. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers early. High 43-48. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 42.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 19. High 37.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 39.

123 thoughts on “Not Biting”

  2. Hoping for some decent precip later today as I think this is the best precip potential in our area in a while and for a while. Will not be good if totals end up less than say .25

  3. I cant see anywhere on the east coast doing well Sunday (for snow). Certainly higher precip amounts further south in the mid-atlantic…..but once you get southward towards southern NJ, Delaware, MD, Virginia and the Carolinas….then I think many factors (boundary layer temps, preceeding mild winter, higher Feb sun angle) will prevent a big snow down there as well.

  5. Hadi/Tom – I am not giving up on this yet. The 0z Euro has shifted significantly north from yesterday’s 12z run with accumulating snow as far north now as central NJ to a point just south of Nantucket. It had pretty much a complete miss for even the mid atlantic yesterday. Too close for comfort and the storm is still 3 days away. Still time for things to shift further.

    1. Mark, Dylan on Ch 7 this morning said one model only was bringing the storm up but it’s a model she tends to like – is that the Euro that you mentioned?

      1. Vicki – the GFS has been the model fairly consistently bringing the storm up the coast with accumulating snow in SNE but as of this morning, it’s 6z run has backed off and has a sideswipe with some light snow at the south coast. The Euro has shifted way north but is still a miss to the south.

        Model consensus track is shifting north…just not sure it will shift far enough north to have any major impact here.

        1. I should add that even the Euro now brings some accumulating light snow to the south coast and southern CT/RI. Chances of seeing anything out of this are best there at this point.

  6. Last week we were still in the thick of things on Thursday. But as that day continued into Friday, hope was surely loosing its grip. By Friday night we knew it was not going to hit but the TV Mets continued to say otherwise.

  7. Mark I never give up!! But the way winter has gone the odds are against us. Yea I agree the euro is north so let’s see what happens over the 24 hrs. I will say that last year we had several storms that were a miss 72 hrs out and them bam!!

    1. I was gonna mention that last night Hadi. If I remember correctly from last year, wasn’t the Dec. 26th storm a miss until almost 48 hours out?? Same deal, to phase or not to phase? Then BOOM!!

    2. That guys cracks me up. He’s so quirky. I guess when he makes bold predictions like that, you gotta be just a little bit quirky. I do hope he’s right though!

      1. Oddly enough I’m finding that most viewers prefer quirky and recognize it as exactly that. I am one of them 🙂

  11. HM is getting pumped for a snowstorm! “Maybe ah, maybe a little bit on the big daddy’ish type of storm”! Any truth to his claim that where a storm enters in the west, will typically depart at the same place in the east?

  12. Let’s see. The GFS had it and then backed off with weaker system passing south.
    Euro had a vigorous system staying South, but now has it significantly more North.
    There are some “hints” that the NAM might be showing some phasing??

    What does it mean? Well, there is a chance, but given this season, odds favor the
    OTS scenario for sure. But still a watcher.

    12Z Euro anyone.

  13. I’ll be in NYC this weekend, so I do hope this misses us, although a couple snow showers around in the big apple would be nice to have.

    1. Are you driving back Sunday? That COULD be an interesting ride!

      I agree with your comment on the NAM. The NWS in Upton is discounting it and calling it an outlier since it does not show the phasing that the other models are showing. Not too mention, it has stunk all winter!

  14. today: increasing clouds highs in the mid 40s
    tonight and friday mostly cloudy rain turning to a mix of snow and rain north of the early on in the morning all rain inside 495. highs in the high 40s to low50s lows in the low 30s
    friday night clearing lows in the 20s
    saturday mostly sunny and warm . windy highs in the mid 40s
    saturday night becoming cloudy lows in the mid 20s
    sunday and sunday night mainly cloudy highs in the the mid to upper 30s lows in the mid 20s
    monday through tuesday mostly sunny highs in the high 30s lows in the mid 20s
    tuesday night increasing clouds a chance of rain. lows in the mid 30s
    wednesday cloudy a chance of rain highs in the mid 40s

    the possible sunday storm will just be clouds for most maybe a few flurries south coast ,cape and islands. No phasing is going to happen and will go to the south of us.

  16. So close… Very sharp cutoff on the northern fringe of the precip in central NJ. You either get it or you don’t.

    I think it’s safe to say the models are in fairly good agreement this morning on a brushing or near miss. I just have a feeling with this one that it wants to come further north. The pieces of energy that will be responsible for forming this storm are still far, far away. Too soon to write it off…yet.

  18. This thing is right at our doorstep, just waiting for an invite to come in. Maybe the 12Z GFS will be that invite??

  23. Its a miss again to the east folks, just does not want to turn the corner and head north. Nothing stopping it from coming north, urghh

  26. The trajectory when it first leaves the gulf looks good, then when it reaches northern Georgia it changes its course and turns more E than NE.

    1. I saw that too. Looks like there is a transfer of energy/redevelopment that happens off the NC coast. Then the bulk of the energy gets shunted east out to sea. In a way, it is similar to what happened with last Saturday’s storm. Grazing on the NW fringe for us and all the heavy stuff over the ocean.

      1. what is making change course? I do not see anything that would make it just change like it. It should move further north!!

  29. Joe Bastardi
    Feed back on GFS causes premature jump.Tho low near my track, worried correction has to be north 50-75 miles.No change for now

    1. Anywhere 100+ miles south of here. I’ll even float in a boat at the benchmark if I have to. It’s called desperation!!!!

  35. I would not want to be in the zone right now down in Mid-Atlantic, temps are going to be marginal at best for them. Coldest temps come as the storm goes by.

  37. I just want to take the time to say that the rude “comment” from a troll (a female troll no less) has been removed from Melissa’s blog from yesterday. The only regret is that I didn’t also report the positive response as well which still remains today albeit is now at the bottom of the page. I believe even positive responses only encourage this behavior but perhaps WBZ may not feel a removal is necessarily warranted.

    For those who wish to see what I am posting about…check TK’s last blog during the evening postings.

    2. Can you send a link?

      I know two of the trolls that post over there. I had a civil disagreement on twitter with two of them. They instantly started throwing out derogatory comments towards me. Very shortly afterward they were one BZ ripping me for a forecast that I never made over there.

      Anthony Siciliano @Ants_SNEweather http://www.southernnewenglandweather.net/

      Peter Lovasco @CapeAnnGuy

    2. Overview from NWS at Taunton:

      OVERVIEW…
      COASTAL STORM TRACKING S OF NEW ENG SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
      TO DEAL WITH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXTENT OF CONFLUENT FLOW
      OVER THE NE AND HOW QUICKLY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WILL
      DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTHWARD THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS. 00Z
      MODEL SUITE ACTUALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF COASTAL STORM.
      GFS IS STILL FURTHEST N SOLUTION BUT NOT BY A WIDE MARGIN AS ECMWF
      HAS TRENDED N…AND ECMWF HAS SUPPORT OF THE UKMET AND ALSO GEFS
      ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST BUT
      GAVE SOME WEIGHT TO THE GFS AS WE CANT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT AS THE
      STORM IS STILL MORE THAN 72 HRS AWAY. IT DOES APPEAR THIS STORM
      WILL AT LEAST GRAZE COASTAL SNE AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MORE
      SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

  40. As for Sunday’s storm…+NAO, +AO which speaks for itself. I had predicted for awhile that there would be snow during our school vacation week, unfortunately it looks now probably only as far north as the Mid-Atlantic states.

    However, Henry says another opportunity next weekend? We will see. 🙂

    I did notice that the morning tv mets seem to be more like convincing “themselves” that the storm will be OTS rather than their viewers. I really didn’t see a lot of confidence…which may actually be our last hope? Maybe I’m looking too much into this?

    1. I honestly don’t put much stock into what Henry M. says… last winter he had predicted a snowmageddon that would be a monstrosity of a storm, the one that would end the weather pattern that we had experiencing all winter. He was 100 percent confident about this storm, and it never materialized. When you cry wolf too many times, people stop listening…

  41. Nail in coffin.

    Wxrisk.com
    ‎** 12Z MODEL DISCUSSION 16 FEB MODEL…. VALID FOR FEB 19 EVENT***

    The 6z GFS and NAM were very suppressed models showing a very flat wave but as I said many times I really don’t give the 6z or 18z Models any credence whatsoever. Given what happened with the 0z GFS at 1230 am this mornign and now the NEW 12z run of the GFS … it is now clear that yesterday’s GFS runs W…AS seriously flawed and all the pathetic excuse making from the various other sources about how HPC was making a serious mistake and dismissing the GFS run some yesterday …. have turned out to be wrong . HPC analysis was perfect and see more proof of this in thre Model trends from last night and he read midday .

  44. I’d say that if there’s no change by tomorrow night’s 00Z runs, then we can say goodbye to this one. May have been the best chance we have had all winter 🙁

  45. Great site TK. I like how most of the time the comments are about weather and not the other bs. I admit I found your site on Ch. 4’s blog. I am a municipal worker who enjoys the ins and outs of the weather. Not a snow lover but not a snow hater either. I look forward to your insight as well as the others on here. Thank you for this site.

  46. Not done on this yet Philip…..still 3 days out and dealing with pieces of energy that are thousands of miles away. The track WILL shift some by Sunday. With our luck, probably back further south. But you never know. Something has GOT to change at some point!

  47. I have a hard time just saying its done 72 hours out, when all is needed is a 50 mile shift. With that said my gut tells me its over!!

  48. Even if the storm approaches us, it’s just not cold enough, guys and gals. Perhaps marginally cold enough at night (sort of like what’s happening tonight in the mountains where it’ll barely get to 32, but good enough to support some accumulating snow, though not as much as I wrongly predicted), but certainly not sufficiently cold during the day. I’m finished with this `winter.’ Shocked and dismayed at the numbers of days in the 40s and 50s. It’s almost as if it’s November pretty much all the time. Except Sundays. At least we have Sundays. Indeed all the forecasts I’ve seen have Sunday down as the coldest day of the week; this week, next, and beyond. Now that’s a consistent pattern and it’s been that way since November last year.

    2. Thanks josh well said. To warm last week, and as well for this week. This storm will not hit us. Mid 40s again for next week.

    3. no no – we had November – just pretend it’s quasi-spring all of the time – birds singing, sky blue dotted with fluffy white clouds, flowers starting to sprout, trees starting to bud………………………………….. 🙂

  51. 12z ECMWF delivers about 0.02-0.07 from NYC to Springfield to Worcester to Boston to Nantucket. That copious QPF is from the Northern stream shortwave. Keeps things well separated and the southern stream suppressed. It is so suppressed it only delivers about .25 to Washington DC. You have to head down to the Carolina for the heavy precip.

  53. The Euro shifted all right…..in the wrong direction!!

    JMA, do you believe in a solution as suppressed as the Euro is depicting? Does the operational run have good support from its ensembles?

  54. I don’t get it. That High to the north is strong enough to push this thing OTS, but its not strong enough to give us cold air? This winter is messed up…lol

  55. hmmmmmm

    AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY…12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT
    REGARDING SYSTEM FOR SAT-SUN WITH THE SLOWER NAM POORLY INITIALZED
    AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER. THE 12 ECMWF ALSO INITLIALZED POORLY SO
    IT WAS NOT USED.

  57. Clealry the HPC does not know what to think or go with. LOL

    THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL FROM SATURDAY
    ONWARD…WITH THE LOW’S TRACK POSSIBLY DEPENDENT UPON THE
    EVOLUTION AND INTERACTIONS OF 3 SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
    TO ITS NORTH. MODEL INITIALIZATION OF THESE SYSTEMS IS A
    CONCERN…PARTICULARLY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING BRITISH
    COLUMBIA…WITH MID-LEVEL DIAGNOSTICS FIELDS FROM THE GFS ALIGNING
    BEST WITH THE STRUCTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMPARED TO
    THE NAM AND ECMWF…WHICH APPEAR WORST. AMONG THE REMAINING
    SOLUTIONS…THE CANADIAN PRODUCES AN OUTLIER SOLUTION CROSSING THE
    GULF COAST AND THUS IS DISCARDED…WHILE THE UKMET IS VERY MUCH
    LIKE THE NAM/ECMWF BUT HAS A TENDENCY TO OVER-DEVELOP OR DEEPEN
    CYCLONES. THUS…CONFIDENCE IN THE UKMET IS LOW.

    1. LOL. Yesterday, they told everyone to discard the GFS due to bad data, now today it is the model of choice! Dart board anyone?

  59. The only signs of winter I see are at least 200 hours from now, and they last through the end of the month and into early March. Problem with this is what we’ve seen all winter: long-range forecasts have been horrible. So, bottom line is I don’t believe we see any more snow of significance this season, nor any more real cold (perhaps a few nights in the low 20s, that’s it). While it probably will not wind up being the warmest winter on record, it will be close, in addition to snow totals across the lower 48 about as low as they can get.

  60. There is some good news, and that is that north country will be getting some snow tonight and tomorrow morning. My best guess is about 2-6 inches depending on locale, with some snow showers developing over the weekend as well. It’s not the bounty I thought they’d be enjoying when I made my wrong prediction early this week, but it will look pretty, especially in the higher terrain where it won’d melt as quickly tomorrow. The outlook for ski country is better as well, as we head through vacation week, with some more snow chances starting Wednesday.

  61. It looks like that low wants to come our way on the 18z GFS, then some magical force shoves it out to sea…

  62. .07 of an inch of precip thru 2/15 at Logan…..1.6 inches below normal for this point in the month on top of a fairly dry January. Glad to see the precip tonight, hope it precips as much as possible this evening………with Sunday storm a miss (in my opinion), the dryness issue is getting serious. It has been masked the last 4 to 5 days because of the rather cloudy weather.

  63. tomorrow at Boston….max sun angle at solar noon…35.6 degrees above the horizon

    next Friday at Boston…max sun angle at solar noon…38.1 degrees above the horizon (from Taunton NWS sun data)

    I have a feeling the next “non-winter accomplishment” of this cold season is going to be a very early 70F day, to be followed soon by an 80F day and/or a very early season hot 90F day….all happening before April ends……IF the overall pattern continues and the stronger March and April sun can pound away at the dry, relatively warm ground within warm sectors on westward riding storms.

    1. I remember a February vacation in 1990 I believe where the entire week was 60s and 70s. I can’t remember what the rest of that winter was like though

  65. Well the CPC has issued their monthly and seasonal outlooks though Spring of 2013 and it looks like our mostly above normal temperature trend is good for about another 14 months, including all of next winter. 😉

      1. Somewhere on their site they explain how they make the forecasts. I never really take them seriously so I don’t even remember how to find it. I just don’t look for it.

  66. As I said before, I am an amateur at this weather predicting thing. But I am interested in learning and enjoy following all of your posts, links, etc. With that said, if you were me, and you wanted to read a reasonable weather report for this weekend for the Newark, DE, where would you look? I don’t want to bring my boots, and wish I had my sandals (and vice versa of course)

    2. They cloud over on Saturday and I still think the bulk of the precip from the Mid Atlantic storm goes even south of them, but they should get into some, starting as rain by midnight Saturday night, rain/snow mix during the day Sunday eventually going to snow and ending with minor accumulations, temps above freezing through the event.

        1. I think so at this stage…
          I never wanted to bring this thing N. We knew the GFS was garbage yesterday and the trend of late has been for things to come in further south than progged, especially with no phasing and a +NAO.

          1. Seriously what are the odds that every darned storm that shows an inclination to come here ends up being a tease. A lot of me wants to give up on the winter but part says sooner or later the odds will be in our favor.

  67. TK a bit premature but since I am a supporter of earth hour which is march 31 this year I wonder if you also support it. There is a plug in for word press blogs that will shut the blog down for the hour I support of earth hour. You may know about this but thought I’d pass it on in case

  69. The lack of phasing was key here. So just look at the jet stream no buckle and west to east flow and a fast flow as well.

    1. The northern jet looks to drive the southern storm well OTS. When northern jet wins out and there is lack of partnership between the two streams, storms never make it here:( That has been the theme of this winter–two jet streams that don’t want to play together.

    1. If we can’t have any snow, then rain is good. Looks like I better start doing some early planning for my spring garden. I suspect any seedlings that need to get started should be moved up by at least a couple of weeks based on CPC’s spring/summer outlook. Thanks for posting that info, TK.

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