Tuesday April 12 2022 Forecast (7:23AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)

Step 1: Try to bring these 5 days into a little more focus. With so much going on, the time of year, and touchy guidance, it’s a task to sort things in enough detail for a useful forecast, but here we go, with the process to be repeated for many days to come it seems. Today, a warm front went through overnight and early this morning, and a cold front will be coming along in short order – late morning and midday. Until around noon or so we run the chance for rain showers across the WHW forecast area. Ironically behind the cold front is when we’ll actually warm up as we combine a drying west to northwest wind, down sloping off hills / mountains, with higher April sun angle as the sky clears out. But tonight somewhat cooler air will be more felt, especially as a brisk breeze continues to blow. Wednesday, we’ll already see increasing clouds ahead of our next weather system, as its warm front approaches. This system is to be more complex than the one passing now. The parent low pressure area will be maturing and it will already be a redevelopment of this system that moves through the Great Lakes and stacks up with an upper low between there and Hudson Bay in Canada. When this happens we usually see an arcing frontal system way out ahead of the parent low, in occlusion mode, and that’s what we will see moving into our region. Will the warm front make it into southern New England? Yes, most likely. Will it make it all the way across the WHW forecast area? Probably not. I figure a cut-off zone somewhere around the MA South Shore to perhaps northern Worcester County of MA or southwestern NH Thursday, with a resultant big temperature contrast from northeast to southwest across the region, as well as a lot of clouds, some drizzle possible on the cool side of the boundary where wind will be coming off the Atlantic, and then an increasing chance of rain showers west to east later in the day and at night as the then occluding frontal system (cold front catching up to warm front) moves in and passes through. A weak wave of low pressure that forms on that front as it slowly goes by may delay our improvement on Friday, but it will eventually turn out to be a nice day as we get into a drying westerly air flow, especially during the afternoon, just in time for opening day at Fenway Park. While we have that nicer weather, the original low pressure system that causes the Thursday’s conglomeration will still be over interior southeastern Canada, but far enough away not to bother us with any unsettled weather. This system will still have an impact on the start of our weekend, however, as it the entire circulation will help spawn another disturbance that will drag its cold front into our region by later Saturday, with the chance for rain showers. While timing on this is iffy, we should be able to get through at least part of Saturday without that threat.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing and becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Chance of drizzle NH Seacoast and MA East Coast. Chance of rain showers from west to east later in the day. Highs 50-58 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 65-72 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH most of eastern and northeastern MA and southern NH, variable to SW 5-15 MPH south central MA, northeastern CT, RI, and MA South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, probably occurring late in the day, except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of rain showers especially late-day. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)

Step 2 is to try to make a little more sense of this 5-day period, and right now it looks like the front that goes by later Saturday will set us up for a dry, breezy, and cool Sunday April 17, which is Easter for those celebrating. Next day, April 18, Patriots Day, Marathon Monday, morning first-pitch Sox game, is a traditionally busy New England day with weather always under a microscope. At that time I believe we’ll see dry weather to start, but it may not stay that way until day’s end. It also looks like we’ll be on the cooler side of normal for temperatures, and I wonder if by nighttime we even see some interior higher elevation snowfall with the precipitation that threatens with the arrival and passage of low pressure. Many details to iron out on this. Leaning toward drier weather for the middle and end of this period, but may have to watch for a quick disturbance / frontal system April 20-21 with briefly unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)

Step 3 is to be cautious on the outlook this far in advance given questionable model guidance and just the time of year in general – volatile spring in the Northeast. Still leaning toward the upper level west to east (zonal flow) pattern but with the tendency for us to be on the cooler side. However, warmer air will reside not far away leaning any temperatures forecast vulnerable this far in advance. Being near the battle zone leaves me more confident we’ll endure a couple periods of unsettled weather.

58 thoughts on “Tuesday April 12 2022 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  1. The 00z ECMWF has measurable snow across most of southern New England, not just the hills Monday night. The 6z GFS has snow Monday night into southern NH and the Worcester Hills. Still a ways out, but both models have been hinting at snow in parts of the region somewhere around April 18-19 for several runs now.

    1. Hopefully any precip, in this scenario, would wait until after certain outdoor events that day….

        1. No, this is a chilly airmass, a coastal low, and approaching upper-level trough, and precipitation moving in at night. In other words, a typical early spring scenario.

  3. Thank you, TK.

    Those write-ups are great, and they’re a lot of work. We appreciate it.

    The easterly breeze may impact the marathon. We often have it. In fact, it can start out as a westerly in Hopkinton only to become a seabreeze by the time the afternoon rolls around. This time, however, I think an easterly may be a factor most of the day.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I have been extremely busy with work, so sorry I wasn’t around much yesterday. 🙂

  8. Nothing but “blue” temps from the CPC almost through the rest of the month. Certainly no “early spring” this year.

    1. Hi Philip,
      It is looking cool for a stretch, but I would disagree on not having an early Spring. One of my wife’s major complaints of Spring is the lack of temps in the 60’s, with several in the forecast this week. We typically go from 40’s and 50’s (if we’re lucky), right to upper 70’s and 80’s. I have many pictures of past years, and this year lawns are already much greener than most any other year. In the seacoast NH area, frost has been out for several weeks and mud season was short. I’ll probably set a record for earliest lawn mowing, too. My kids are teens now, but most years we had Easter egg hunts with at least some snow on the ground, with a few very warm exceptions. Even if we get a sneaky snow event, the green-up momentum is hard to stop now. Enjoy!

  11. For me, so far this has been a very typical Spring, even though March and April so far, have been above normal temperature.
    It could be much worse, but it also could be better.
    NO complaints from me for this Spring.

  12. Springs are Interesting. Joe’s post is what I recall from the mid ,90s on with cooler temps mixed with warmer temps. Before that time, when my kids were still young, we had warmer Easter Sundays. My kids….now ranging mid 30s to early 40s (that one is in denial) …..wore spring clothes and occasionally a light weight sweater (for earlier Easter’s) when we went for our traditional walk after Easter dinner. My brother passed in 1995, and I always thought it was interesting that weather didn’t permit an after dinner walk after 1995.

    Our neighborhood is a bit behind this year. Bulbs are later; and while we are greening up, our flowering pear trees have some catching up to do. They are budding so it will be interesting to see if they are flowered by the date In the photo below. I think it will be close. Dates are at the top of each photo

    Curiously, I wonder if being closer to my age that Philip is recalling springs before seasons began to shift.

    https://imgur.com/a/PwMUVEw

    1. Thanks Vicki,
      I do remember sunrise services being mild, when I was a kid (early to late 80’s). Usually translated into a day time temp in the 60’s, but still pleasant in the early AM. Memory recalls them being very similar, year to year. So, you may be onto something…or I have selective memory!

    2. Yes Vicki, springs were generally warmer in my younger years. Not to mention, falls got chillier much sooner than todays.

          1. Well, something’s been screwing around with our climate over the past 30 years or so, whether its man made or natural. Either way, the earth is NOT supposed to behave this way.

            1. Climatologically, spring is cooler than autumn here. It always has been. The relative cool vs. warmth for each season is independent of that. We can go back and see other episodes of time where they fluctuated. There are many potential causes, some human-influenced and of course many natural, most notably solar cycles, which dwarf anything else.. However, that dwarfing does not mean the other things are insignificant, as I always note. We need to continue to be very careful about what WE can control. That should never change.

              1. I absolutely agree that weather is cyclical. Unfortunately, man has exacerbated the changes far too dangerously to be ignored. Either we stop or our grandchildren and theirs will have little left.

                Surely not one person can disagree that we have to stop polluting. We have to move to methods that do not pollute. In the end there is absolutely nothing lost. Folks from politicians to meteorologists to scientists everywhere have to get on board. Now. Because we are out of time.

                This article by Michael Mann is both fascinating and terrifying.

                https://michaelmann.net/content/rise-and-fall-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation

                1. I agree. And I have never said we should ignore our own impact. I maintain what I always say. Take care of it while striving to learn as much as we can. If we stop seeking knowledge we are destined to mess ourselves up in more ways than just that one…

            2. I agree, Philip. Having Mac Closely involved with the damage we have done, helps me to understand

          2. As he accuses, I am definitely not one of those scientists to misapply the information. I always say this is a relatively new study and there is much to learn. In general, I disagree with his suddenly stating it doesn’t exist though. Going off questionable model information from methods that have already proven to be somewhat unreliable is not enough evidence, in my opinion, to suddenly abandon such a theory, especially when we know of similar cycles in other oceans. I think it’s prudent to monitor and learn, even with our questions, and as always, continue to treat our planet kindly. 🙂

            1. Please see the link I posted above. His process and reasoning in disproving his original premise is well laid out. I have tremendous admiration for a person who openly says he was wrong. Sadly, he is correct that it is being used by far too many of influence as an excuse to deny our influence on climate.

              1. I read the whole thing.
                And I agree that far too many misuse it.
                I am not one of those.
                I think his current conclusion may be premature, based on the model issue. This is my opinion as a scientist too, just like he is. 🙂 I’m not saying he’s 100% wrong now, just think we need to learn more about that particular cycle. I believe it does exist, but we don’t know enough to fully understand its causes and impacts.

                1. Sorry. I mean the second post I just shared. It is written by Mann. My bad for not being specific. It’ll take a while to read and then reread to absorb it all.

      2. I absolutely agree. We are close to having no room to correct the mess we have made of our earth, water and air.

  15. I turned the Sox game on when they were losing 3-1……
    You’re welcome. I’ll take the credit for the luck I brought them by tuning in. 😉

    1. I went to the eye doctor and the computers were down …only for the second time in the years they’d been in that location. The first time they’d been down was when I went to them for my first visit last fall. Amazing the influence we all have 🙂 🙂 🙂 I suggested they not put my name in the computer for my September appointment

  17. Hmm, that’s some cold air around early next week….
    ECMWF still wants to give a few inches of snow to interior SNE higher elevations and even brings measurable (but less) right to the coast of eastern MA.

    CMC/GFS not as excited about this but still both show interior higher elevation snow. The GFS actually does it again around April 24.

    This is awfully consistent for this far in advance…

    1. I guess even if Boston and Worcester snows simultaneously, this time of year Worcester wins anyway in a landslide (or an avalanche), correct? 😉

      Where is the BLOWTORCH when you need one?!?

      2. Well it could still technically snow heavier at Boston if they were both snowing together, depending on the exact conditions. But the odds of that in mid April are very, very low.

    2. The snow depth map still shows a fair amount of snow across Southern Canada; especially parts of Quebec. And, there’s snow across portions of the mountain states, Dakotas, and Northern Minnesota. Winter does hang on, as they say, a long time in a fairly large part of North America.

      1. Exactly why I have been referring to the battle zone.

        This spring is pretty typical, actually, although North America as a whole during the last week was the 3rd coldest in nearly 4 decades.

  18. Observation in Bismarck ND at 3:52 CDT
    Heavy Snow and Freezing Fog , 27º, Wind Chill 13º
    Wind Gusts to 41 mph, Visibility 1/4 mile.

      1. The kid’s face in the picture he posted in the comments – priceless. Jacob probably wasn’t laughing at first, but they will laugh about this many times in the years to come. 😉

  21. I wanted to share a photo I took in Seabrook NH just before sunset on a windy & cold March 28 2022. The clouds in the distance were producing snowflakes. The temp was very cold (about 24) and I had just come from putting my feet in the water (which was about 40). Invigorating!

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/277584314_10160048649987265_5542025460987937537_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s600x600&_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=r2c7_afBBWQAX9CnnDV&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=00_AT87naUO2alN-CD15O8FlkWzXzRSByok5x1slbXV01uFjw&oe=625B08F2

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