Wednesday April 13 2022 Forecast (7:38AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)

A warm front approaches today with a considerable amount of cloud cover, but not really a bad day at all – not too windy, fairly mild for mid April. It’s tonight when we see more cloudiness and some chance of light rainfall as the front enters the vicinity. It still looks like that boundary will come to a halt, somewhat bisecting our region with much of eastern MA and southern NH being on the cool side Thursday while to the southwest it warms nicely – a set-up not atypical of spring at all. Meanwhile, the low pressure parenting the boundary will also be sending another front eastward out of NY/PA into New England at night, and a pretty solid area of thunderstorms will have formed with it, and push into and eventually across our region during the night, weakening as it does so while running into increasingly stable air. However, it still can be good for some downpours and rumbles of thunder. Friday, it all moves off to the east and we get into at first a northerly flow behind a developing low pressure wave, and then eventually a westerly flow as the day goes on – turning out to be fair and rather mild. This is good news for opening day at Fenway Park. Low pressure still has to move eastward and pass north of our region, and will do so during Saturday. Somewhat similar to the set-up we had last week, we’ll find another disturbance moving along the eastern side of that larger low, and a cold front will swing its way across New England later Saturday. Ahead of it we get a mild day, and how dry it stays during the day will depend on the timing of the front and the showers (and possible thunderstorms) it triggers. For now I’m optimistic we make it through most of the day rain-free, but if you are making weekend plans, keep in mind this shower threat. For Sunday (Easter for those celebrating), we end up with a nice dry day, but the trade-off will be a cool breeze that arrives behind the cold front…

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Chance of drizzle NH Seacoast and MA East Coast. Chance of rain showers from west to east later in the day. Highs 50-57 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 66-73 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH most of eastern and northeastern MA and southern NH, variable to SW 5-15 MPH south central MA, northeastern CT, RI, and MA South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely including the chance of thunderstorms, especially west of Boston. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, probably occurring late in the day, except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind N up to 10 MPH in the morning becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms especially late-day. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)

April 18 (Patriots Day for ME, MA, and CT), “Marathon Monday”, and the traditional late morning first-pitch Red Sox home game, and the weather looks just fine! A little bit on the cooler side, especially in the morning, but we are looking at high pressure bringing fair weather, although we’ll see increasing high cloudiness well in advance of our next unsettled threat. While this is day 6, the set-up we should have probably can allow for a sea breeze so you can take this into account if you plan to be at Fenway or along the Boston Marathon route closer to the city – obviously too soon for timing and details but putting the idea out there now for advance planning reasons, and will fine-tune. Looking at the threat of rain and even interior higher elevation snow for April 19 and another potential unsettled weather threat by the end of this period as we stay in an active weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-28)

Still low confidence on the outlook but staying with the idea of a zonal flow upper pattern and temperatures more likely to be on the cooler side of normal as the chilly air from Canada has the edge on its battle with the warmer air to the south. A couple of unsettled weather threats likely result from this battle zone and disturbances coming along the jet stream.

57 thoughts on “Wednesday April 13 2022 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  8. And it seems to be an unscheduled deck morning since our carbon monoxide alarms are going off and SILs thingy reads 20 ppm

        1. Thank you. Oddly a stand alone detector my SIL had in basement picked it up at 1 am. The whole house did not do we foolishly thought it was the battery. Whole house went off at 8 this am

          Looking as if we will get a heat pump sooner than planned.

    1. Impressive storm !

      North Dakota is absolutely buried in snow.

      They have gone from a drought worry to a spring melt worry in just 48 hours.

      1. You forget the angel factor. We have had to be outside since before 9 am so needed warmer temps. 🙂

  17. BTW, if you want to see what a real cold front looks like, check out the observations over the past 24 hours from Broken Bow, NE. I forecast for a radio station in Sargent, NE, about 10 miles away, so I am always looking at their weather.

    https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KBBW

    They had a high of 84 yesterday afternoon and a low of 19 this morning.

  18. Looking as if we will not have heat for weeks. If we could keep temps up, that would be greatly appreciated. Thank you ❤️

  19. SAK, that’s an impressive cold front and temperature drop: From 84F to 19F in less than 18 hours. In other words, from shorts and a tank top to a parka.

  22. From Britain as cricket (sport) season begins. See tweet below. You don’t even have to understand cricket to know that this guy’s `technique’ is poor, but also funny. Swings for the downs (in cricket parlance that’s trying to `hit for 6′) and on the second try accidentally knocks over the wicket with his mallet (which means he’s out – you’re supposed to protect the wicket from being struck by a ball or your mallet). https://twitter.com/ThatsSoVillage/status/1514187175906140168

  23. It is time for some Weather 101.
    The first link is a photograph of a series of wave clouds that appeared on Tuesday April 5 2022. The basic idea behind this formation is the air at cloud level is in a rippling motion as it moves along. In this particular case, I am looking south from Woburn Massachusetts and the wind several thousand feet above the ground is blowing from west to east (right to left across the image) in an up and down wave like motion. At the crest of each of these waves of air is a cloud formation. The clear slots appear where the air is moving downward and drying out. If you were to look at a time lapse of this you would see the clouds forming and dissipating pretty much in the same spot and appearing to be generally stationary. The second link is a satellite photo taken at the exact time I took my photo. Marked in the satellite photo is my location by a yellow asterisk. I have also marked the three waves that are visible in my photo with the numbers 1, 2, and 3, and marked the corresponding waves on the satellite photo with the same numbers. So now you can see a visual from the ground and from space of the same formation.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/KzjZb3F7zu12iupv5

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/oDQHHcmm5NQpbZ226

  25. GFS has some very negative temp anomalies for the eastern US late in April. Brr!!

    ECMWF still says yes to higher elevation measurable frozen precip early next week.

      1. I’ll put in an order for you! On a better news front, the 20th is likely to be a dry day. I think if we get a storm system, it’s the day before.

        1. Awesome news. THANK YOU VERY MUCH for watching the 20th. And thanks also for the order for warmer weather

  28. Thanks TK.

    Made it 72F here today…warmer than I expected! BDL hit 75 and the NWS has them a few degrees shy of 80 tomorrow!

    Here is the 12z Euro for early next week trying to give me a birthday surprise with a coastal storm inside the benchmark:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022041312&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Frozen precip makes it into Boston .

    10:1 Snowmap:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022041312&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Obviously take this with a grain of salt in mid March but shows you the areas where accumulating snow could potentially occur…if this scenario played out.

  29. Ironic with our April running above average temp-wise in SNE (even before today) that Mount Mansfield, VT has hit their deepest snowpack of the entire season this week with 60″ on the ground at the snow stake:

    https://twitter.com/SurfSkiWeather/status/1513720998922801154?s=20&t=3IYedZ8QFiXzJp99Kshzlw

    That snow depth is still 10″ below average for this time of year.

    Mt. Washington also has received 18″ of snow so far this April, with more on the way next week.

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