Saturday April 16 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)

The third weekend of April 2022 has arrived and will be as busy weather-wise as many of us are with weekend plans, and those of us in MA, ME, and CT, it includes Monday which is the observed holiday of Patriots Day… Weather-wise there are quite a few changes packed into the next few days. Today we have a lot of clouds and a gusty southwesterly breeze ahead of a cold front, which will have a broken but fairly wide band of shower activity with it, including some embedded downpours and a slight risk of thunder, but it looks like the vast majority of the WHW forecast area gets through the main daylight hours of today without the rainfall, as it hangs back to the northwest, just skirting north central MA and southwestern NH at times. The bulk of the wet weather occurs tonight as the front slides through from west to east. A pretty sharp temperature drop even before the showers end, especially to the west and north of Boston, allows for the possibility of some mixing and even a brief change to snow showers in higher elevations of southwestern NH and northern central MA before precipitation moves out. A cold pool of air has to cross the region during Sunday, which is Easter for those celebrating it, and it will be a cooler and breezy day. Most of the sunshine will occur in the morning (though it may start cloudy across Cape Cod), before diurnal cloud development takes over. Some of these clouds can produce showers of rain and even graupel, but I don’t expect them to be widespread – just isolated to scattered, before fading later on. Look for clearing but a fairly chilly Sunday night and early Monday, which will be a factor when runners and spectators gather for the start of the Boston Marathon (Hopkinton MA), where it may be as low as the middle 30s at sunrise. As mentioned on yesterday’s discussion, there will be a steady rise in temperature from there on in the morning, eventually to the 50s, but as runners head eastward toward Boston, especially the later-finishing runners, they will probably be contending with at least a slight sea breeze by then. For anybody going to the Red Sox game at Fenway which has a late morning first pitch, expect dry weather, increasing high clouds, a temperature in the lower 50s with a light northerly breeze at first pitch, a high temp of about 55 middle innings, and back to the lower 50s with a sea breeze by the later innings. The aforementioned clouds will be increasing ahead of an approaching low pressure system, and while this will not bother outdoor activities during the day, it will bring us a shield of rain moving in at night and through about the first half of the day on Tuesday. The track of the low pressure area will be just southeast of our region, and with chilly air already in place and cold air above us, some of the interior higher elevations may see a period of mixed rain/snow or even straight snow with the system, resulting in the potential for some accumulation (more on this as we get closer to it). Later Tuesday, with that system moving away, expect breaking clouds but chilly air with a gusty wind. High pressure moves in by Wednesday with fair but still cool weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy but occasional intervals of sunshine. Slight chance of brief rain showers north central MA and southwestern NH late morning on. Highs 60-67, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely including a chance of thunderstorms in the evening, ending west to east overnight possibly as a mix with sleet and/or snow showers in the highest elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA where a brief coating could occur on coldest surfaces. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Early clouds especially southeastern MA giving way to sun, then sun/cloud mix late morning on with isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers which may include graupel in isolated locations. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, variable under 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast with developing rain and the potential for mix/snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening, clearing overnight. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)

Westerly (zonal) flow pattern. A trough and frontal system brings the threat of rain showers to the region later April 21 and/or early April 22. April 23-24 weekend looks split with a cool/dry start and a potentially wetter finish before a push of warmer air may arrive to end this forecast period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26 – MAY 1)

The hints of blocking that were present on recent guidance are not as prominent on the current guidance but given the time of year, I’ll not count out the possibility. This leads to a low confidence forecast with 1 or 2 periods of unsettled weather and variable temperatures, to be fine-tuned in the future.

44 thoughts on “Saturday April 16 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)”

    1. Leaving for London today for two weeks.

      Couple of requests:

      1. someone please root for Worcester to top Boston snow in my absence.

      2. TK, I could google it of course but that’s much less fun. Big picture forecast from you while I’m over there?

      2. Safe and fun travels, Retrac.

        I’m so torn between Worcester and Boston. Is it all right if I root for both 🙁

        1. Sorry Retrac, but I will be rooting for Boston to hang on and beat Worcester, even if it’s by 0.1 inch. We will see. 😉

          B = 54.0”
          W = 53.6”

    1. Good morning, Jean. You are so kind to ask. We are. We have a virtual MassSave house review today. We need to have approval for its credit which is about $10,000. My SIL just qualified as a diamond mitsubishi provider so hopefully that will help us qualify

  6. Good morning, this forecast is suggesting some snow tonight. I’m in Southern NH just west of Jaffrey. Thank you.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Winter hangs on for dear life, as it usually does in parts of New England, and usually that lifeline is a fairly long one.

    1. Winter seems to hang on here in Boston to some extent. I still have my winter coat available. Most trees still not really budding out yet.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Dave Epstein mentioned a couple interesting tidbits on air this morning:

    February 5 is the end of “Solar Winter”.

    Sun angle today is the equivalent of August 27th.

      1. I wonder if you had much snow in your way. I honestly would have forgotten it if the pic hadn’t popped up in my FB memories

  10. Ha!!!! Just had the Mass Save virtual house assessment. We are approved for the credit two heat pumps. SIL said the person who performed the assessment was efficient and knowledgeable. He ended up asking my SIL if he’d give him an estimate to install a heat pump at his home. It’ll still be weeks. It is close to impossible to get the pumps and other parts needed, but we are on our way

  11. Hey Olive, I’m just curious.. do you live in a motor home?
    11 days ago you were 128 miles from Keene.
    10 days ago you were 10 miles southeast of Keene.
    Today you are just west of Jaffrey.
    If so, how’s the gas mileage on that thing? Just wondering. 😉

    2. No a very small house. I’m about 10 miles southeast of Keene NH. Jaffrey is about 10 miles east.

      1. Ah, so the house has a set of rotor blades to get to those other locations. Got it! 😉

  12. Just read the NWS report that pops were slowing down and wouldn’t ramp up until 17 to 18Z. Can someone explain this? Just mean rain will arrive later?

  13. The lovely weather has the flowing pear trees that line the neighborhood. Will be curious to see how they meet up with last years date. Lawns are not quite as green, but they have time also.

  16. What a beautiful day!!! My Davis equipment is reading 73.

    I was out running an errand in shot sleeves. It was wonderful!
    Car thermometer was reading 71.

    Gimmie MORE of these! sadly, not for a while yet.

    1. 73 here also. Clouds moved in a while ago. Wind let up and is lovely still to sit out

      Tee shirt Aldo.

  17. Too bad the storm Monday night into Tuesday wants to cut inside. It would have been most interesting. 🙂

  18. From the so-called typewriter tapes, Janis Joplin sings the blues in June 1964. She was 21 at the time. Sounds like Mississippi blues. These are called the typewriter tapes, because the performances were recorded in a San Francisco apartment – Jorma Kaukonen’s mother’s apartment – and you can sometimes hear a typewriter in the background.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJ9gIJTX5ME

  19. If it turns out just to be rain where I am I don’t care. If this was December through March different story.

    1. Whatever type of cloud that is, it’s sure scary looking. A downpour HAD to have occurred shortly after that photo was taken. NO way that area gets spared.

Comments are closed.