Sunday April 17 2022 Forecast (8:42AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 17-21)

Happy Easter to those celebrating today! It’s a bright and beautiful but chilly and breezy Easter morning as I write this, and it’s going to be a cool and fairly blustery day, but we won’t keep the bright sunshine all day. As a pool of even colder air moves overhead, we’ll see a significant amount of diurnal cloud formation starting later this morning and through afternoon, some of them potentially releasing rain showers, some of which may contain rimed snowflakes a.k.a. graupel, and a few of the stronger showers can even contain small hail and produce lightning and thunder, so keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans. That settles down by evening and we lose the clouds after, setting up a clear and cold night as high pressure builds overhead. We start Monday out quite cold, with even some below-freezing low temperatures in the cold spots, and 30s for most of the area. With sunshine abundant in the morning, we’ll see a quick temperature rise, but it’s not going to be a warm day by any stretch with highest temps in the lower to middle 50s, even getting knocked back to below 50 along the shoreline due to a developing sea breeze. For the Boston Marathon, runners will gather in a significant morning chill, but at least we’ll have lost the wind from today by then. At the starting line it will be warming through the 40s and during the race into the 50s. As runners approach the finish line they will likely start feeling a sea breeze coming at them with a slight drop in temperature. This will especially be true for later-finishing runners. At Fenway park, it will be a dry but cool day for the midday baseball game. Hey, it could be worse, we’ve dealt with significant coastal storms for Patriots Day in the past, and this time, we’re going to miss by a handful of hours, as a coastal storm takes shape and brings a period of rain (and even some interior higher elevation snowfall) to the region Monday night and Tuesday morning. Right now I feel that the best chance of snow in the WHW forecast area is still southwestern NH and north central MA, mostly near and above 1000 feet in elevation, where some accumulation may occur. These situations are hard to forecast in the spring and we’ll just have to watch it closely. Either way, the system will begin to move away during the second half of Tuesday, and we dry out but with a lot of lingering clouds, chilly air, and a gusty wind. High pressure builds in with fair and cool but more tranquil weather Wednesday. A breeze returns Thursday but this time it will be a milder breeze ahead of an approaching cold front, which may bring some rain showers to the region as well.

TODAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds. Isolated to scattered showers this afternoon which may contain graupel and/or hail, and a slight chance of lightning/thunder. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 28-33 except 34-39 immediate shoreline and urban centers. Diminishing NW wind.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 51-58, turning cooler coast afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast with developing rain and the potential for mix/snow with some minor accumulation interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening, clearing overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Highs 60-67, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 22-26)

A westerly (zonal) flow pattern is expected to start this period and may begin to evolve into more of a blocking pattern before the end of it. Best opportunity for wet weather comes around April 24.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 27 – MAY 2)

Leaning still toward a blocking pattern with near to below normal temperatures and the potential for a longer period of unsettled weather.

66 thoughts on “Sunday April 17 2022 Forecast (8:42AM)”

  2. Thank you, TK. Happy Easter to you and your family. Hugs to your mom!

    We had a light frost last night but the house stayed warm.

  4. Thanks TK
    Watching to see if this storm system puts Worcester in first place or will Boston hang on and win the snowfall race.

    1. We may not even be able to tell after this one. If it’s a close call, or it doesn’t happen, the pattern coming up later in April is still one that you cannot rule out snow in the elevated areas.

  7. The cumulus clouds out this way are only about an hour old and they are already showing some decent vertical growth.

  10. Thanks, TK!

    Happy Easter to all who are celebrating with family and friends!

    94º on Easter Sunday, 1976 (It was April 18 that year).
    7.3″ of snow on Easter Sunday, 1970 (March 29)

    Elton John’s classic song Rocket Man was released 50 years ago today.

    Here’s a 21st Century interpretation of the song:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtVBCG6ThD

  12. NAM wants to go way inside for Monday night/Tues, meaning NO SNOW for Worcester!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2022041712&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    GFS, on the other hand tracks a bit more East and snow for Worcester, especially the 1,000 foot high Airport where the records are kept, snow “may” be in the cards.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022041712&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Very close for Worcester

  15. Be careful with the short range guidance underestimating the magnitude of the cold for the next system.

    2. I understand that, but it “appears” to be tracking so far West, that warm air could be introduced aloft. no?
      OR do you feel it tracks a bit farther East than being modeled?
      Thanks

    3. It appears that I’m going to be on pins and needles with every system that comes by for the rest of this month.

  16. Clouds significantly darker and covering more of the sky. Not looking good for an outdoor Easter hunt

  17. It’s now only 45 here. If we have a decent shower, it “could” snow or graupel. Word press doesn’t recognize the spelling of
    “graupel”. TK, something MUST be done about that!

  18. Experienced some graupel here in Woburn in the last several minutes at the end of a light rain shower. Not too heavy. Not even enough rain to wet the ground all the way where I am. Heavier nearby though per radar & visual observation of precipitation shaft.

  19. The NNE ski areas should do well and continue their season for the rest of the month. Maybe into May?

  21. Thanks TK and Happy Easter!

    Just had a snowshower here in Coventry CT at 42F.

    I am very intrigued by that GFS track….if it materializes, that is some very heavy snow for the interior and mountains, and would likely get some accumulating snow into my area as well.

  22. We went up to Killington Friday for what will probably be a last day of spring skiing and had a good day…temps were in the 50’s with a nice breeze which was actually refreshing when you are working up a sweat skiing in some heavy spring corn snow.

    Here is a shot of the kids on Superstar, about halfway down. Not much snow has melted since we were there a few weeks ago. They are standing on a 25-30 foot base of snow. Look at the bare ground and chairlift on the left of the photo and you can see how high the snow depth is on the trail!

    https://imgur.com/83M1LlE

    On the other hand, they had one natural snow trail left open on Friday near the summit and the snow depth on that trail was just a bit less 🙂 …..

    https://imgur.com/JQCrLRE

    1. I should add that after 60 Friday, they were in the 30’s yesterday and picked up 4″ of new snow. And they are expecting 6-10″ from the upcoming storm. Trail count may actually get a boost this week!

  23. Meant to post these a few days ago, but some incredible pictures coming out of the Dakotas from this week’s historic blizzard. 36″ in Minot and drifts 6-10 feet in many places:

    https://twitter.com/JacobMorseWX/status/1514817706259714050?s=20&t=tOm3lsjhq98k54faf1QKtA

    https://twitter.com/CristCacewx/status/1514806934850875403?s=20&t=tOm3lsjhq98k54faf1QKtA

    https://twitter.com/cgphotography/status/1515065037915934722?s=20&t=tOm3lsjhq98k54faf1QKtA

    Easy to forget the animals in a storm like this as well. Fortunately these horses were saved….

    https://twitter.com/AAARPGodess/status/1515701054154883072?s=20&t=tOm3lsjhq98k54faf1QKtA

    2. Actually, closely looking at it, I believe that to be Graupel and not true hail. It looks too white to be true hail.

      Here is a definition of graupel I found:

      Graupel, also called soft hail, hominy snow, or snow pellets, is precipitation that forms when supercooled water droplets are collected and freeze on falling snowflakes, forming 2–5 mm balls of crisp, opaque rime. Graupel is distinct from hail and ice pellets.

  30. The second graupel shower to hit my location today was heavier, with a partial ground-covering. It melted rapidly upon conclusion.

    1. That looks a lot like what my son and I were out in this afternoon in Lunenburg. I noticed that it “turned on” and “turned off” very rapidly and very often. It was lots of fun!

  32. Logan recorded “light rain and sleet” today, with a Trace of each. I wasn’t looking out of my window every millisecond but from what I could tell, absolutely nothing fell from the sky in my neighborhood of Dorchester. The streets and ground stayed completely dry.

    Could virga have fallen?

  33. With the latest track of the Tuesday system passing right through SNE, Boston should maintain its precarious lead over Worcester. Whew! 😉

    B = 54.0”
    W = 53.6”

    1. Don’t count out the front end. This isn’t just about storm track. 😉 Spring systems don’t behave like mid winter systems…

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