Boston Area Forecast Update

41 Comments

7:33AM

Apologies for lack of update yesterday.

Quick Boston area forecast now – full discussion and forecast update this afternoon.

TODAY: Cloudy with a rain showers this morning. Clearing this afternoon. High 43-48. Wind SW under 10 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 26-31. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 41-46. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Minor accumulation possible. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 37-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Low 18. High 37.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22.  High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 33. High 47.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. AM rain showers. Low 37. High 48.

41 thoughts on “Boston Area Forecast Update”

  2. Thanks TK – I can’t believe we went from possible snow to the sunniest day of the weekend. The weather gods are playing with us !

  3. I have a weather trivia question if you want to play (hope this is ok TK). If you reply to this comment, I’ll be more apt to see your answer I think

    What is the cost temperature ever recorded in Washington, D.C.?

    For bonus:
    When was it recorded
    What followed it?
    How many inches of snow did DC see that winter?

    1. –15F degrees on Feb. 11, 1899
      The great blizzard of 1899 which barried the southeast in snow.20.5 inches of snow fell in DC. still a record

  4. And one for our Brady Bunch fan(s)!!

    What was Carol’s maiden name?
    What was Carol’s former married name?

      1. I think Ann because I can hear Mike calling her Carol Ann – and I probably made that up and of course you are correct about Tyler and Martin 🙂

  5. Already 44 degrees, I think many areas will make it to 50, if not beyond 50 with the clearing skies in a little bit.

    1. Yes, unbelievable. This is not a standard zonal flow pattern. I can remember plenty of years in which a zonal flow pattern held sway, but on occasion a clipper would dart by, redevelop off the coast and give us snow. And, we would not be basically stuck in the 40s and 50s all winter.

  6. Here is the 6z Nam for 2/20/12 00utc
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120217%2F06%2Fnam_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=069&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=02%2F17%2F2012+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  7. Here is the 12z Nam for 2/20/12 00utc
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120217%2F12%2Fnam_namer_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=063&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=02%2F17%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  8. What the IWS is seeing on this an extreme northward push of the precip field closer to New England. Could this be a trend? Again base on the IWS I expect more models to come into its thinking.

    1. haha, I hear you Coastal. IWS is my favorite model but has been performing poorly this winter. Unfortunately, there aren’t enough model runs left for this to “trend,” we need an all out SHIFT to get that thing in here.

      1. You are right though, the 12Z NAM does push slightly north. Brings some heavier precip into extreme southern Jersey. I think this is the model to watch from here on in.

  9. three weather systems to talk about and they are light , a miss and a rain maker
    today clearing and warm highs in the low 50s
    tonight mainly clear with lows in the mid 20s
    saturday increasing clouds due to the northern jet highs in the mid 40s
    saturday night chance of light snow showers little accumulations up to one inch. lows in the mid 20s
    sunday clearing and becoming blustery highs in the upper 30s to low 40s
    sunday night through mondaynight clear and blustery with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the low 20s
    tuesday warming back up mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 40s
    tuesday night increasing cloudys ahead of a front lows in the low 30s
    wednesday partly to mostly cloudy highs in the upper 40s to low 50s
    wednesday night through thursday night mostly cloudy chance of rain showers.
    First sysem a clipper like system. keeps bigger storm from coming up here.
    second storm to the south with nothing but some clouds for areas south of the pike
    system 3 is a front that could give an islolated rain or snow shower and will be followed by warm temps for wednesday.
    storm 4 will be a rain event.mid to late next week.
    we just have a really bad pattern.

    1. Matt, I like your forecast and honesty. “We just have a really bad pattern.” That says it all.

      Thankfully, weather is not the only thing in life, and certainly not the most important. Health is key. Hearing of Gary Carter’s passing at 57 reinforced the importance of health. Gary broke my heart as a Red Sox fan, but was a class act as a ballplayer and (family) person. Terribly sad way to go (debilitating brain cancer). Of course, the media barely says anything about Carter, instead obsessively reporting on Whitney Houston. I could all vent all day about this, but I won’t. I have work to do.

  10. It is amazing how rainstorms have no dependence on the NAO, AO, PNA, SOI, etc. These storms come right on schedule regardless of what is happening in the atmosphere. Why is it these rain events plow right through massive high pressure systems with no resistance, but snowstorms can be deflected by a mere trough like the one coming through Saturday night? “David vs. Goliath” and we all know how that turned out. How many times have we seen massive cold shots followed by rainstorms? Too many. 🙁

    Having said all that, I do have to work this Sunday afternoon into the evening anyway. 🙂

    1. I’ll take a shot at this question Philip…..

      I think rainstorms are dependent on those teleconnections you mentioned. Problem is, the teleconnections for milder storms and thus rain producers have been the one’s we’ve been seeing this year. My concern now is that our region and the country as a whole seem to not be receiving snow or rain storms and I’m quite concerned what the spring and moreso summer will bring once the higher sun angle and longer solar days return.

    2. usually not as dry air is ahead of a rain storm as usually a front moves through putting moisture in the air.Cold air is usually dry in general. se we need all of the NAO, AO, PNA, SOI to be just right. This is just a guess. tell me if i am any where close.

  12. Phillip it amazes me with rainstorms!! You can look at the GFS or whatever model 2 weeks out and if it shows a rainstorm it usally ends up being spot on!!

  13. On to our next chance.. 12GFS showing a clipper next weekend..

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120217%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=189&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=02%2F17%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. I AM IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT TOM WAS SAYING. I THINK THE NEXT WEATHER STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER MOVING IN EARLIER,WE JUST May be in store for a great spring season this year.

  16. The MJO is now in phase 2, if we don’t see a change in this pattern from it, then the MJO is not to blame for this horrific winter. I really don’t know what is the main driver for this winter is.

  19. It is truly amazing. If you look at Brett’s graphics, it’s not just us….over 2/3 of the country is dry and mild to unseasonably warm for the tail end of February through mid March. As Hadi alluded to, there are a couple of possible snow chances on the long range GFS between 2/25 and 2/29 (of course, they are probably fiction). If we don’t get something in that time frame, it could very much be all she wrote for this winter. I really was not a believer early on that this could be the least snowiest season on record in Boston (or even in the top 3) but we are getting to the point now where that is seriously in jeopardy!

    1. I am quite convinced this winter will be historic worldwide in terms of warmth, but especially in our hemisphere in the lower 48 states. Frigid cold in the far north, but it just never could get unlocked.

    2. I think Boston’s snow total will land at #5 or 6 on the least snowy winters list when it’s all over.

  20. Not looking great for Sunday. Euro, Gfs and Nam all pretty much in agreement
    with an OTS solution, with the Nam farthest North with the precip. Perhaps there
    is wiggle room, But they all seemed to be pretty locked in. 🙂

    1. Tough forecast for northern VA, DC, Delaware, etc. How much of the precip falls as snow? how far north does it get? There will be a sharp cutoff to the northern edge of the precip. Our only question here is whether it will be partly or mostly sunny on Sunday. (yes, I have officially given up on this storm!)

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