Saturday April 30 2022 Forecast (8:02AM)

42 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

Last day of April – last day of impact from low pressure spinning offshore. The wind will be down from yesterday but it’s still to be cool with some clouds rotating around the back side of the low pressure area in our sky. Sunday, high pressure builds in with a very lovely day to start the month of May. Monday, low pressure in the Great Lakes stretches its way toward New England via New York, and as we often see in a pattern when things are not moving rapidly, this system gets pulled apart with the old low hanging back and its frontal system stretching out and trying to form a new low as it passes by. It will partially fail in that atmospheric endeavor but not enough to spare us from a cloudy sky by later Monday along with a risk of some light rainfall that night. I expect that the new low that does form, a fairly small and weak one, will exit the area early Tuesday as the old original low moves away via eastern Canada, with a little bubble of high pressure moving in to improve our weather during that day. But things at that time will start to move a little more quickly as the pattern evolves into a block that features high pressure in Canada and low pressure systems moving eastward to the south of that, so that our next unsettled weather system is already moving in Tuesday night into Wednesday with more rain.

TODAY: A lobe of high clouds dims the sun north to south this morning. Sunshine and passing clouds this afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible midday and afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Patchy fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clearing. Highs 60-67. Wind variable becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)

Large-scale pattern: Blocking with high pressure in eastern Canada and slowly eastward-moving low pressure areas to the south of that. We’re vulnerable to unsettled weather especially in the late May 5 to early early May 8 time frame. Doesn’t mean clouds and precipitation the entire time. It means we’re vulnerable to unsettled weather. Some of this activity may stay to the south. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)

Similar pattern, weak blocking favoring cooler than normal temperatures. Must watch systems coming from the west, but they may be weak and/or pass to the south keeping us on the drier side.

42 thoughts on “Saturday April 30 2022 Forecast (8:02AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Jacob mentioned on air this morning that Mother’s Day and beyond is when it is finally safe to start planting around here.

    1. That’s generally the same each year, because we go by climatology (average dates of last frost/freeze etc.).

      Anything planted before that is more vulnerable to trouble due to temperatures being too cold.

      1. After Mothers Day brunch, We would go to a local nursery and each of the kids would pick flowers for our gardens. Quite often, once planted, I’d end up covering them with sheets a few risky nights for a few weeks.

        I spoke to one friend yesterday whose gardens have been highlighted in Better Homes and gardens. He and a couple of others who are master gardeners still stick to Memorial Day for any plants that are more susceptible to colder temps and also those that have not been hardened.

        Some such as pansies are safe. My oldest has had her pansies out for weeks. She is also planting a few colder weather veggies in her garden.

        1. Those are good guidelines. My father used to really jump into his gardening right around Memorial Day Weekend. He did start earlier with some things and I remember him having his tarp system to cover things. 🙂

    1. At least it’s been a mild/dry spring overall, not on the higher end of the miserable many people loathe. Notice a lack of ocean stratus and drizzle type weather so far? Not a lot of that.

      The down side is our dry pattern leaves us with a rougher fire season.

  5. Thanks TK. The house is having a bit of trouble holding in the heat with the wind but it is still tolerable

    1. The wind definitely makes it harder. There’s a room on the 2nd floor (the one I spend most of of my time in) that has 5 windows, and they are starting to leak a lot, but the house is having a complete window replacement rather soon, so that will end that. 🙂

      Glad it hasn’t been TOO bad there. At least even with the cool pattern the calendar is still your friend as we’re heading in the right direction.

      1. So true. Even when outside on warmer days, the wind makes the air feel significantly cooler.

        As you know I’m a huge fan of wind and don’t mind cold. I have a gas fireplace that can take the chill off the main area. So all is well

  6. Thanks, TK.

    While I don’t like spring, this spring has been quite good in terms of it being dry and rather sunny.

  8. A fire destroyed an historic Victorian mansion in Northbridge yesterday. It’s about 3 miles from me. I had a curbside pickup across the street a couple of hours before the fire started. I always sit and just look at the home. I suspect know I’m fascinated by historic houses and the stories their walls hold. My heart aches for the owner and for so many in the area who have special memories of time at the home

    https://boston.cbslocal.com/video/6232962-historic-northbridge-victorian-home-destroyed-by-fire/

  9. This may be a silly question but is there much risk from fires indoors for brush fires? I postponed fires the past few nights thinking sparks from the chimney might reach the ground. Could be I am just a worrywart.

    1. Not at all silly. I was about to ask. Or maybe we can be silly together. Someone close by is burning brush close by.

      I don’t see a red flag warning but,…

    2. There have been instances where sparks from chimneys have started fires. It’s rare, but not impossible.

  13. As I was walking along, I saw the first ice cream truck of the season blaring the typical theme music. A tad bit early would you say? 😉

    Plus this current pattern doesn’t exactly scream “ice cream” just yet. 🙂

    I seem to remember as a kid, the ice cream trucks in my neighborhood usually came out a week either side of Memorial Day.

  16. Its cool here on St. Thomas A cool 78 degrees cloudy with patchy fog with on and off showers and isolated thunderstorms
    😛

    Anyways been busy and having fun which is why I been mainly MIA from the blog lately.
    1. Been continuing to do my research for my thesis on the Invasive seagrass and invertebrates.
    2. Been involved with the Diadema urchin die off currently on going. ( I was one of the first to see it start) I been involved with specimen collection and trying to figure out what is going on. Last major die off was in the 80s. We have no idea if its a disease or if its environmental at this time. to me I hypothesis its a mix of both.
    Working as a coral nursery technician this spring and Summer.
    3. This past week has been Carnival first one since 2019, so first one I could go to and have fun with friends.
    4 Going to the Azores last two weeks of June , First family trip since 2019 and will be in Massachusetts for 4th of July weekend. Hope to do some biking in in NH and or Cape cod before I come back to St. Thomas.
    5. Hope to defend and graduate in the Fall.

  17. Its cool here on St. Thomas A cool 78 degrees cloudy with patchy fog with on and off showers and isolated thunderstorms
    😛

    Anyways been busy and having fun which is why I been mainly MIA from the blog lately.
    1. Been continuing to do my research for my thesis on the Invasive seagrass and invertebrates.
    2. Been involved with the Diadema urchin die off currently on going. ( I was one of the first to see it start) I been involved with specimen collection and trying to figure out what is going on. Last major die off was in the 80s. We have no idea if its a disease or if its environmental at this time. to me I hypothesis its a mix of both.
    Working as a coral nursery technician this spring and Summer.
    3. This past week has been Carnival first one since 2019, so first one I could go to and have fun with friends.
    4 Going to the Azores last two weeks of June , First family trip since 2019 and will be in Massachusetts for 4th of July weekend. Hope to do some biking in in NH and or Cape cod before I come back to St. Thomas.
    5. Hope to defend and graduate in the Fall.

    1. Great to hear from you Matt. Sounds like your thesis work is going well.

      So cool that you’re headed to the Azores.

    2. Awesome news, Matt. Congratulations on your great work and on your find. So happy to see you here !

    3. Quick question for TK, during 1999 spring and during the low to mid 80s the AMO was negative or in the process of changing correct? What other weather events were going on during these times?

      1. I’m not sure what the other indices were at the time, but we could do a little digging on that.

        One theory on the AMO (and I completely disagree with recent news that it “doesn’t exist” – it does, we just have a lot to learn about it), is that it’s partially responsible for longer term cooler springs and milder autumns, but that doesn’t mean we cannot have warm or even hot spells in spring (think of March 2012 for example) or cold spells in autumn (first thing that comes to mind is a series of very cold shots of arctic air a couple Novembers ago). Other indices in certain combination will do that.

        Another example of things “coming together just so” might be a reason why we’ve seen near record low tropical activity in the southern hemisphere this season so far, or why 2021 saw only 37 tropical systems globally of hurricane/typhoon strength or higher, lowest since 1981.

        Unfortunately our period of record being so short leaves us with more questions than answers. This science will be necessary for a long time, given so many other known and maybe even some unknown impacts on weather and climate. 🙂

        If anybody reading this wants to dig a bit for the large scale indices from 1999, feel free. 🙂

  19. Recall the other day when many forecasts had highs around 70 for Wednesday and my opinion was that temperatures were being over-forecast? I stand by that still, but now those forecasts are around 15 or so degrees lower for Wednesday, so we’re all pretty much in agreement now. Low pressure passing to the south, easterly wind, heavy overcast, periodic rain in early May in New England. Sorry but ya ain’t gettin’ anywhere near 70 in that kind of weather, even away from the coast.

    Problem is, a lot of of the time medium range guidance in this pattern will underestimate high pressure in eastern Canada and take low pressure areas too far north and west. The guidance will spit out #’s that are far too warm as a result. Once they clue in to the actual pattern and adjust everything, the #’s come down, but even in some cases you still have to adjust the model guidance from what you know happens. Much guidance struggles with persistent onshore flow – forecasting temps that are too high.

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