Monday May 2 2022 Forecast (7:23AM)

26 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)

A warm front approaches today with thickening cloud cover and eventually some light rainfall in the area by this evening or tonight – not a big deal, but that front won’t make it in, and we’ll stay on the cool side of the boundary. Weak high pressure makes a feeble and generally failed attempt to clear us out Tuesday, so going with clouds to dominate, but no rainfall threat. Low pressure looks like it makes a run for regions just northwest of us Wednesday, but wait, it suddenly decides to bubble along the frontal boundary to our south and we stay north of its track with a cool easterly air flow and periodic rainfall. Finally a stronger push from high pressure takes place as that system departs by Thursday, which turns out to be a dry and milder day, though still somewhat cooler along the coastline. When we get to Friday, there’s significant inconsistency and disagreement in model guidance, with some outcomes ranging from dry and and mild to dry/breezy/cool to another low pressure system moving in with another wet weather threat. I’m between scenarios #2 and #3, leaning toward the unsettled side of things with clouds returning and some threat of rain, especially for southern areas. There will be fine-tuning to come…

TODAY: Thickening overcast. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few glimpses of sun possible. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds break, patchy fog dissipates. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain, favoring southern areas. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)

Large-scale pattern: Blocking with high pressure in eastern Canada and slowly eastward-moving low pressure areas to the south of that. We remain most vulnerable to cloudy and occasional wet weather in the May 7-8 depending on how far north low pressure is. Fair weather should follow this. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)

Similar pattern should continue as we approach and reach the half-way point of May, leaving us vulnerable to some unsettled weather episodes and variable temperatures that lean to slightly below normal. The confidence in this part of the forecast is fairly low though. There is still a fairly large spread in medium range guidance and one can make a case for any of these being potentially correct.

26 thoughts on “Monday May 2 2022 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Matt Noyes has the rain moving in around noontime today. I like your forecast for today much better.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I think you could sum up the entirety of today’s discussion with one word: SPRING 🙂

    Have a great day all.

  6. A garage fire in Sutton at 3am. I believe it also required surrounding towns. Whether this is coincidence or more, these guys have to be numb. It’s been literally nonstop since yesterday morning and on top of the huge Victorian fire Friday night in northbridge

    1. It sure sounds like someone is deliberately starting these fires.
      What has happened is way beyond coincidence imho.

      1. I know the cause of the first yesterday was an accident. I also know the second was set but think the kids (teens) didn’t intend to have it get out of control. Although they had to have had marches. The one along 146 at the old drive in that has been vacant for decades is worrisome. I had the sense listening to the scanner the firefighters thought it was suspicious. I’m not sure about the garage fire early this morning. It isn’t far s the crow flies from the old drive in fire I’ve never believed much in coincidence though

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Live video from my favorite small North American city; Quebec City. The ice on the St. Lawrence has finally melted, though I’m sure there’s still plenty of ice further north near Sept-Iles. You can see how QC is about 4 weeks behind Boston on its way towards spring. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkDjmRt-9Yo

  9. The warmest Logan has been is 73F, back in the early part of mid April.

    I’m looking at the 00z GFS and I don’t think it projects Logan to hit 70F until possibly May 15th.

    In fact, there’s a stretch there in the medium range that is either rainy or drizzly and with the clouds and onshore breeze may be in the 40s.

    Of course, the sun continues to climb higher in the sky.

    I assume some kind of ridge will briefly show up in later May through early June, at which point our temps will soar, for a couple days, into the upper 80s and low 90s and with zero acclimation to it, we’ll all be sweltering.

  11. JPD, if you ever get a chance to visit Quebec City, do so. I highly recommend it. It’s like going to Europe but not leaving the North American continent. Obviously, it’s not a place to visit from late November through, say, mid April, for those who don’t like it very cold. But, in summer it’s really gorgeous. I’ve left Boston several times in July and August in the middle of a heat wave – mid 90s – and arrived by car in Quebec with the temperature around 80 and very little humidity. They get occasional hot and humid days. Happened to me once in August of 2011. But it’s very infrequent.

    1. Oh, I agree. I just wouldn’t want to be there in the dead of Winter. Indeed, it is a beautiful city to be sure.

  12. JPD. My granddaughter and I took some thank you pictures and a bunch of pizzas to Sutton FD today. Most of the fires have a reason thank goodness. A couple are still bring investigated.
    Makes me a lot more comfortable

    The firefighter was awesome. My granddaughter got to go inside the truck. She asked a ton of questions and he patiently answered every one

  13. It’s kind of fun with the login breaks and I have to use my old WBZ TV blog account. 😉

    I have no major commentary on the weather at this time. The long-standing cool forecast for Wednesday stands as is and I’m glad I never bit on the warm guidance days in advance. Ah, forecasting spring in New England. It’s actually easier than a lot of the country. Not EASY, but easier than a lot of other locations, contrary to general regional belief.

    Now all we need is a guest appearance from ImAlwaysRight. 😉

    1. Who would that be?

      Bailyman? Charlie? Or was ImAlwaysRight an oldie from the BZ blog way back? 🙂

      1. He was an oldie but never revealed his (or her) true identity.
        We had some epic forecast contests between us…

        1. Nah. He may mostly always be right but certainly would not say so….except the few times he is wrong and he faults himself

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