Tuesday May 3 2022 Forecast (7:33AM)

32 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)

Weak low pressure exits and weak high pressure tries to build in today. We’ll lose the shower threat we have this morning but keep the clouds, with only a few breaks of sunshine possible at times later. A frontal boundary sitting just to our south will provide a pathway for low pressure on Wednesday, with cool air and period of rain. We get a break Thursday after this system exits and we see a stronger push of Canadian high pressure. With the air behind Wednesday’s low coming from a region that has had more sun, we’ll end up with a much milder day with just some coastal sea breeze activity keeping it cooler there relative to inland locations. Later this week we’ll be eyeing another strung out low pressure area to our southwest which will approach the region, bringing clouds back during Friday. My feeling at this time is that the low center will remain far enough south through Saturday to keep its rain away, but we’ll probably end up with a lot of clouds due to an easterly flow, which as you also know at this time of year means cool air as well.

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with scattered showers possible. Mostly cloudy with a few episodes of sun possible late morning / afternoon. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, strongest near the South Coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds break, patchy fog dissipates. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the morning, becoming variable with afternoon coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 51-58. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle near the coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)

It looks like we’ll be under the influence of a blocking pattern starting with low pressure far enough south to keep its rain away then high pressure in control with dry weather continuing. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)

Hints in here of a weakening / break-down of the blocking pattern and a more zonal (west to east) flow developing. This would mean progressive systems bringing up and down temperatures and a few chances for unsettled weather, but plenty of dry weather between.

32 thoughts on “Tuesday May 3 2022 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  6. Our rainy Wednesday will deliver less 1/2 inch of rainfall.

    If anybody still thinks we are having a wet spring, that is officially a delusion. 😉

    Numbers don’t lie… We are dry.
    And we will be getting drier in the days ahead.
    Drought monitor should be talking about abnormally dry conditions not long from now.

    1. Agree. The numbers in the bucket are small so I’m not surprised at all that we will be seeing some activity on the drought monitor. Unfortunately, on the days that were wet throughout the day saw only drizzle.

    2. That’s good about Wednesday as I have a doctors appointment. What about Saturday?

      1. I’m wondering how Derby weather will be. It is five days out and showing rain. Hopefully, that will go away

  8. JPD – police are asking for any information on the old drive-in fire. I’m not surprised.

  9. 12z GFS has widespread 80s next Thu/Fri/Sat, with temps near 90 the last day. Anyone wanna bet that we end up with a backdoor and are in the 50s those days instead of 80s?

    3. If I had to bet this far out, I’d bet for the cooler side, based both on what we know of the pattern, and the well-known biases of the medium range guidance. This is important to note, and a big factor, as we both know, in springtime forecasting in this part of the country.

      You remember how our mentors at our old place of work would caution us about the forecast temperatures out that far, most especially in springtime, as the guidance often did a poor job at detecting back door cold fronts, and often high pressure in eastern Canada, for example, was more prominent than the medium range would indicate. This is still very much the case now, and an important piece of knowledge in the practice of prediction.

      I’ve always said here and other places, guidance is guidance, and its use it as much about knowing its weaknesses as well as its strengths.

      Anyway, I’ll go low if I have to forecast that far out.

  10. I was just out for a bit. There is some sunshine and it is
    very pleasant out there without a jacket or sweater. Very nice!

  12. A couple points to make…

    * Short range guidance did a very good job with the drying from the east today. It’s even cleared up in some spots a little more than I anticipated. Once again note another onshore flow episode with a lack of stratus/drizzle. It’s been difficult to moisten up those lower levels lately.

    * In monitoring the trends on the medium range guidance (Canadian, Euro, GFS), the GFS was initially the outlier, bringing wet weather into our area Friday-Sunday, but has now joined the other 2 models with a drier regime for our area. Is this a lock yet? No, but with 3 of them in agreement the chance of it actually being dry most of that time period does go up a bit. This doesn’t get us out of the woods on cool though. We’ll have an easterly flow between low pressure well south and high pressure to the north. Next week, the GFS is a bit of an outlier again with that pattern persisting longer while the other guidance kicks things along a little sooner. We’ll see how that works out.

    1. Living along the coast, I usually see fog/mist/clouds while sunnier inland. A bit of a reversal today.

    1. Not even remotely close.

      Boston had 0.2″ on March 12, which is tied with 1941 and 1983 for the 18th latest last measurable snow on record.

      1925 holds the record with the last measurable snow of the season falling on January 30.

      1. Wow! Winter shut down quite early that 1924-25 season, didn’t it? Must have been a nice early spring following I would imagine. 😉

        1924-25 = 21.4”

    1. I think we “warm up” to some degree, but folks will have to be careful about buying into warm temps on the guidance. Meteorologists know that we are very vulnerable to cool intrusions from Canada / Maritimes in the spring, and the pattern during the next couple weeks will leave us vulnerable to that for sure. (See the last part of the blog post I just made.) What was said on the blog yesterday about the model forecasts for very warm temps not being a sure bet for the almost automatic threat of being back-doored was completely based on meteorological experience. It was one of the things are meteorological mentors taught us, both in college and even more so in the workplace.

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