The Week Ahead

70 Comments

4:12PM

Another week, more of the same pattern. No need to really go into much explanation, as it is just a repeat of previous. The overall pattern will continue to feature milder than normal temperatures and no significant winter storms. The early part of the week will feature fair weather, with a tendency for a more unsettled middle and end to the week. Details will be hard to pin down regarding cloud cover and timing of any precipitation, due to a fast-flowing jet stream, so check back for daily updates.

Forecast for eastern Massachusetts and adjacent Rhode Island and southern New Hampshire…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from 15 deeper valleys to upper 20s Boston & coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. High 37-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from middle 10s inland valleys to middle 20s coast. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy morning. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy afternoon. High 42-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S increasing to 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 37-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 54.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 41. High 49.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny & windy. Low 31. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 40.

70 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Anyone want to volunteer to put up a weather station. So far it’s not getting done here – hehe

      1. Thanks TK. I would never ask anyone to really do it. Except of course my husband and SIL who so far are not getting it done 😉

      2. Sad part is the two I’m waiting to do the job also are not good at installing or maintaining. I’m beginning to think I’m in big trouble.

    1. So does Barry Burbank….his prediction is 61F for Friday. Think I see a lightning bolt symbol as well on Friday.

  3. MJO is in it’s best phases, but the AO and NAO are positive, and the PNA is going negative. We are going to have to get very lucky to get a snowstorm in here before this “winter” moves out.

  4. Thanks TK and hello everyone… Back from vacation and the weather was nice down in Florida. Same old same old up here another storm misses us and another mild week ahead with rain chances. I guess were not going to have the 12 plus inches of snow the Farmers’ Almanac predicted for this week. Anyone good to be back and I look forward to once again chatting with all of you.

  7. Thanks TK and Vicki its good to be back. I would say DUD is the best way to describe the winter of 2011-12. Its amazing ever since the Pre Halloween Noreaster we flipped the switch to this overall mild weather regime with a few short blasts of cold air. I don’t see a repeat of this next winter and I think will be closer to normal for the winter of 2012-13.

    1. Welcome back JJ. Glad to hear you enjoyed sunny Florida. What part of FL did you visit? As for this winter, we should have known something was amiss after being blasted with a Halloween Snowstorm. I sure hope you’re right about next winter!! Then again, New Englander’s are used to the old adage “There’s Always Next Year”

  9. I may be wrong in what I’m saying, I am not a weatherman by any stretch of the imagination, but I think too much emphasis is being put on the positive NAO. I do not think the positive NAO has much influence on the weather in Montana, for instance. And it’s often been at or near record levels for months in places like Billings. There was also a report in the NY Times today on the lack of (thick) ice in Minnesota, even Northern Minnesota! Also, there’s been practically no snow in Buffalo this year. It’s very, very weird, and I don’t think this is just a NAO thing, or even a standard zonal flow pattern. I’ve said this before, but that to me would be a cop-out. We need a better explanation, one that digs deeper, and I look forward to reading serious reports on the winter of 2011-2012. Indeed, with a standard zonal flow pattern it would generally be cold enough to support lake-effect snows. Past experience tells us this. This year, we haven’t even seen that. And also, in zonal years, we get the occasional clipper to hit at least Central and Northern NE with more than 3 inches of snow, for goodness sake! This year every clipper has been so incredibly tame, no bite, a couple of snow showers in the mountains and that’s it. You can probably tell, spring is not my thing, especially not after such an uneventful `winter.’ Oh well, there’s always next year …

    1. I think it had to do with the placement of the polar vortex, as it kept the cold air out of the states for the majority of Dec and Jan. When that eventually broke down, it was too late for us to go into a winter pattern. The +NAO worsened this, as it prevented the polar vortex from locking into a more favorable spot. Instead it swooped down and left as quickly as it came.

      1. Does it affect the entire world. Seems winter was odd everywhere. It ,Akers sense to me that if one area is deeply affected that others would follow suit but I really have no idea

        2. Good point, Vicki. I’d also be very interesting in reading any material available regarding the unusual winter of 2011-12 (worldwide). Please post if anyone has any has interesting links.

          1. Scott, Vicki, Shotime: Thanks for the explanation, Scott. And yes, Vicki, Shotime, the warmth is a worldwide phenomenon. Not or near the the pole, as we know, but virtually everywhere else. Remember that very cold snap in Western Europe? It lasted 10-14 days, and is almost a distant memory already. Temperatures across the British Isles have been well above normal since last Sunday, and even from France to Denmark above normal temperatures. Scandinavia and parts of Eastern Europe have been the exception, although it appears that even there an early spring is forecast.

            1. I think when it’s all analyzed we’ll find out that the explanation was actually rather simple, and the AO and PNA probably played major roles, ENSO / QBO also significant factors.

  10. Another problem associated with the lack of precipitation this winter; high risk of avalanches “Experts have said the risk of additional slides in the region could remain high all season. They attribute the dangers in part to a weak base layer of snow caused by a dry winter.” Be extra careful skiers and snowboaders!!!

    1. shotime there was a tragic avalanche in WA state yesterday that took three lives. I hadn’t thought of avalanches in relation to the lack of precip – thank you

  12. I think the consensus high temp is right around 40F today. I am interested to see what it ends up being.

    Mt Washington is 0F this morning, running about 5F colder than this time yesterday. Yesterday’s high of 46F – 5F = 41F.

    However, the air is dry (mid teen dewpts). The high clouds should clear out to allow full sun by late morning and the ground is dry. We’ll see if by late afternoon, readings end up being in the range of 42F to 44F.

  13. Next 2 weeks could be setting up repetitive sharp temperature contrasts btwn a very warm SE USA and a somewhat cold central plains / western Great Lakes. I think we’ll start to see the effects of this later this week with many disturbances riding along this boundary…with showery periods and mild temps…….With this winter’s track record, I’d assume we’ll be on the warm side of this most every time. But, I do think it opens the opportunity for a lot of storms the next couple of weeks and unfortunately increases severe weather episodes in the Mississippi River Valley………Just wondering if there’s an opportunity to shift the temp contrast occasionally a bit eastward and have just one system track south and east of New England.

  14. Since December 1st (81 Days), the average high temperature in Plymouth, MA is 45.56 degrees. The average high for this day is 43, so I guess the temps are finally catching up to the normal temps. So i guess hitting 60 latter in the week makes sense based the weather we’ve been having. I just hope the temps continue to climb so we are not stuck with a cold spring.

  15. A spring like week once again with a couple chances for rain this week.
    Philip thanks for the stats. I remember 01-02 had about 15 inches of snow then we had above normal snowfall the following winter including the Presidents Day Storm. Of course the summer prior to that was hot and always wondered if there is any correlation between a hot summer and the following winter being a snowy one??? I know one thing never root for measurable snowfall in October or above normal temps in November.

  16. I have been seeing the possibility of some substantial snow (according to this year’s standards) in the forecast for the northern mountains for the end of this week into early saturday. Now I am seeing indications that it will be all rain. Does anyone know the latest on this? I really hope its not rain.

      2. I think a few days ago, the GF.S in particular wanted to develop a wave of low pressure on the southern areas of New England as the cold front passed thru and hence the mountain snows. In my opinion, it has gotten a clue and dropped that scenario. Has low ptessure NW with a mild surge intp mtns and a cold frontal passage with no wave on it.

          2. Tom – I do the same – I figure by now everyone just knows what we mean!

            Acemaster – did you get to the stockyard? A group went into the room right near where we were sitting and I wondered if it was your group. Food was YUMMY

            1. Hey Vicki, I’m glad you liked it! They have some of the best steaks around IMO. Unfortunately we never made it there. I was trumped by the Sunset Grill and Tap, which was great too.

  17. I think what caused this record low amount of snow is because i am a senior this year and i wanted alot of snow this year . so of course it did not happen. 🙁

    1. Ooo that stinks. Last years seniors must have been so lucky….I’m praying for 200 inches of snow winter 2014-2015 for my senior year!

        1. You can never pray too much :). None of my three kids had a lot of snow days their sr year. Mother nature has an odd sense of humor !!

  18. It’s not looking good for snow even up in the mountains with this late week storm. Both the Euro and GFS indicate warmth and rain showers surging north all the way into southern Quebec on Friday with highs possibly over 60 here. Storm track is well west of NE. Possibly some snow showers on the back side after the cold front moves through.

    1. Hopefully things change between now and then. I checked a couple previous runs of that same system and it looks like it has been flip flopping. I keeping my fingers crossed.

  19. Yay – weather station is nearly set up. Anemometer is mounted to an old satellite dish in the middle of the roof – not blocked by trees in summer which was the problem with my old station. And everything is online except rain gauge which will be hooked up in a few minutes.

    It’s 33.7 F, 37 RH, 29.9 pressure, wind is 0.0 out of the SE 🙂

    Now I can’t wait for a windy day –

  20. TK – remember how you said you do not do well putting things up…………… I just asked if when my husband and SIL mounted the anemometer they made sure the E marked on it was facing east. Both just looked blankly at me 🙂

  22. Henry Margusity showed a high resolution snow map and the deep south especially interior areas did quite well over the weekend. I believe that the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston (with the exception of the Cape) are the only areas left in the entire CONUS w/o any real snow this winter including the pre-Halloween storm. 🙁

    Didn’t extreme SE MA & Cape get almost a foot of snow back on January 14th?

  23. They did since they were closer to the low pressure center. Southern CT RI and Southeastern MA did well with that storm system.
    This winter has been a dud. I hope we don’t have a lot of heat and humidity this summer which will keep the electric bills down and more money in our pockets.

  26. Wow…I saw that parts of the Virginia mountains received as much as 17″ from the storm yesterday! Nothing like doubling Boston’s season total thus far for snow in one storm, and all the way down in Virginia nonetheless.

    The long range GFS builds some very cold up again in western/central Canada next week, with pieces of that seeping down into the northern plains and Great Lakes. It looks like a battle zone between that cold air and warmth over the SE could be setting up over us with some fairly unsettled weather and waves of low pressure moving along that boundary. If we can get one of the lows to track south of us (like the 12z GFS is showing) perhaps we could actually get an opportunity for some snow? TK, do you see any chance next week…at all?

    Beyond next week, long range guidance looks very mild into mid March as Scott alluded to. Chances for any accumulating snow will get even fewer and far between than they are now (if that is even possible!)

        1. I’m almost thinking that we may have to wait until after mid March…………………………… It would be kind of ironic to have book-end storms in October & say, April.

          1. April works and I have been thinking that too. End of march not so good since pregnant daughter due the 24th and has an hour ride to hosp

  28. Dewpoints are back around 10F + or – a couple degrees. In the last 3 weeks, I feel like the region has been seeing an increasing number of low relative humidity days.

    Boy, the EURO deepens that inside runner quickly on Friday….I don’t think that’s a great track ordinarily for a lot of precip, instead maybe a little warm front precip on the front end and a line of showers with the cold front. Not good.

    The NWS has a predicted high of 70+ Friday in Norfolk, VA and 60s into NJ. I suppose a howling SW wind off the ocean to our south would keep temps in check a bit Friday.

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