Wednesday May 4 2022 Forecast (7:28AM)

30 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)

Low pressure moves through the region today, its center passing near or just south of the South Coast along a frontal boundary. This brings periods of rain and some embedded heavier showers, maybe even the risk of some thunder. But when we measure the rainfall, most of the region will have had modest amounts when it’s done. This isn’t all that helpful since we do need rain to keep up the water supply for the coming warm season, as well as put the brakes on fire season, which still goes on for a little longer. Additionally, despite blocking in the pattern, we end up mainly dry in the days ahead as it still looks after high pressure delivers nice weather Thursday, low pressure passes by but too far to the south for any appreciable rainfall late this week (Friday-Saturday). Another high pressure push from Canada should ensure dry weather for Mothers Day on Sunday, but it will remain cool due to an east to northeast air flow.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Patchy fog evening. Lows 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67 but falling to the 50s coast in the afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle near the coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we sit in a blocking pattern with little overall movement of systems except a sinking to the south of the high pressure area. This means a mainly dry stretch of weather, starting on the cool side followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)

Not only is the forecast less certain because of how far into the future we look here, but also because it looks like we’ll be in another springtime battle between warm high pressure to the south and cool high pressure in eastern Canada. While some guidance paints a picture of very warm to even early hot weather, we can be vulnerable to much cooler shots of air from eastern Canada via the Gulf of Maine, including the classic back-door cold fronts. We should always be on the lookout for those at this time of year as guidance often doesn’t see them coming that many days in advance.

30 thoughts on “Wednesday May 4 2022 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Unless something comes together soon,
    it is looking like just spotty rain. Most unimpressive on radar.

    On another note, I see some TV mets appear to be biting on the upcoming “warmup”. We shall see. I know I have seen my share of cruel bd fronts in Spri g.

    1. Gfs and Euro hinting at near 90.
      Could be, but I see cold Canadian high lurking just to our North and Northeast
      Wouldn’t take much for that to slide down and cut off the warmth.

    2. This morning Cindy hinted at the first 80F of the season for next week. It seemed more like a “promise” too.

  3. Thanks, TK…

    Fingers crossed for a decent late Saturday afternoon as my students have their Junior Prom. They are SO excited!

  7. Thanks TK.

    At least Mother’s Day will be half way decent with no rain and some sunshine. Temperatures are almost always cool compared to Father’s Days.

  9. The sfc low and upper low that sinks southward late next week over the south Atlantic Ocean.

    Wonder if the NHC puts an outlook for potential sub-tropical storm development or if it might even happen ??

    2. The GFS very clearly has it as a cold core low sitting under an upper-level low. Of course, given NHC’s recent history, if they get a wind gust to 40 mph about 300 miles from the center, then we’ll have Tropical Storm Alex.

  11. Today is an absolutely perfect example of why folks think spring has been wet. It has been but not with amounts that actually do any good. It is one of many days that is raw and wet but the bucket registers only 0.08.

  12. On International Teachers Appreciation week, I’d like to thank our whw teachers for all they do. It has been a truly difficult near three school years and you have all been amazing ❤️

  14. So, a little models 101 and other commentary…
    You often hear the mets here on the blog refer to the guidance as being suspect beyond a few days. This is simply the truth about guidance. It’s not perfect and it is never going to be perfect. For what it is, it does a generally great job, but not without flaws, some much larger than others, some exclusive to one model in comparison to others. This comes down to the fact that these models are programmed based on equations we have developed to describe and predict conditions in the atmosphere, given a set of initial conditions. The science of weather modelling has come a long way from its infancy, but as I said, it will never be perfect. Upgrades are made with the hopes of improving models, but that doesn’t always work out. In programming, sometimes when you fix one thing you break another. It’s all a learning process that we hope results in a long-term improvement curve. But there will be bumps in the road. This needs to be understood, especially by meteorologists. Myself and others have had some great mentoring in the tricks of these models, starting way back with the older ones that were around, most of them no longer operational, but having lead to the next generation of models, and the one after that, etc. Each new model brings a new set of things to learn. Each upgrade brings yet another set – not all drastically different, but potentially different than something we’re already use to. So it’s an ever-changing science but with some solid rules of thumb.

    So now let’s pull out a specific example. Today’s weather. Last week, most guidance was spitting out temperatures in the 60s to around 70 for eastern MA for May 4 (today). I’m not concerned with who believed it and who didn’t, and which TV person had it and which one didn’t. That’s not up to me. They make their own forecasts. I make MY own forecast to the best of my ability. As Harvey Leonard once said when asked if he pays attention to other forecasters, “I don’t watch as much of my competitors as I used to. I prefer to make the best forecast that I can make, and control those things that I can control.” (The answer to a question posed to him on a local talk show.)

    Yes, I do look at other forecasts, NWS, local media, colleagues, and in some cases discuss upcoming ideas with colleagues, but as always I try to focus on my own ideas and use them to make the best forecast I can make at the time. And as we have seen, many times that best effort falls way shy of the intended accuracy and you get a bust. It happens. This is not an exact science and none of us are or will ever be perfect. But we all have our own ways of looking at the information and carrying out the process we have to go through to arrive at our predictions. Last week, when I saw the warm numbers for today, I was skeptical. Why? Applied meteorology. Simply that. Based on the pattern as I knew it to be and would likely be, my anticipation was the warm biased guidance would be wrong – and it was. Does this mean every time I anticipate the guidance to be wrong it’s going to be? Of course not. But this is a process I have to go through every time, and just hope to hit more than I miss. Today’s weather is the result of the pattern that made me say last week (paraphrasing) “I have a feeling the temperature for next Wednesday are being very over-forecast.” And yes, they were. This was a good forecast. I’ll take it and move onto the next one. If it had been a bad forecast, I’d have learned to the best of my ability why I messed it up and taken that lesson forward. That’s what we do in this science.

    Today, we look ahead and see the potential for a pattern change that brings some much warmer weather our way, but once again taking into account our location and the time of year, we’ll be on the lookout for things that can interrupt that warmth or even mess it up for longer. That’s the nature of the uncertainty of forecasting more than a few days into the future, and why everything must be re-evaluated each time we sit down to look ahead again.

    I hope that all made sense.

    May the 5th come soon, so I don’t have to hear any more Star Wars Day references (not a fan, in case I didn’t mention that before). 😉

    Have a wonderful evening!

    1. As my boss is fond of saying “If the models were as good as some people think they are, there would be no need for meteorologists.”

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