Friday May 6 2022 Forecast (7:40AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)

A blocking pattern will continue to be in control during the next 5 days. Much of this time we’ll have high pressure in eastern Canada and low pressure strung out just to the south of New England. The low pressure area will be close enough to keep us under its canopy of clouds into Sunday, with most rainfall limited to the South Coast – with maybe a couple of pushes northward toward the I-90 belt at times that generally get thwarted by dry air. Eventually, high pressure starts to win the battle during Sunday and into early next week with increasing sunshine as the low gets pushed southeastward. This pattern is a cool one for our area though with a broad scale onshore (easterly) air flow much of the time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Some light rain possible near the South Coast this afternoon. Highs 60-67 but falling to the 50s coast in the afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of coastal drizzle. A few periods of rain possible near the South Coast. Lows 44-51. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of coastal drizzle. A few periods of rain possible near the South Coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain south of I-90. Chance of coastal drizzle. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with possible coastal drizzle during the morning. Breaking clouds / increasing sun afternoon. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we sit in a blocking pattern with little overall movement of systems except a sinking to the south of the high pressure area. This means a mainly dry stretch of weather, starting on the cool side followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

Leaning toward a drier pattern and a little uncertainty as to we remain under the influence of weak blocking or finally get into a more zonal pattern. Re-evaluation needed. Temperatures should be fairly close to normal, maybe a bit above with enough land breezes.

43 thoughts on “Friday May 6 2022 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  5. Thanks, TK!

    Right there with you, Tom.

    34 days for us. June 24.

    Seniors graduate four weeks from tomorrow!

    This school year, I have been counting down since September 1!!!! 🙂

    1. Between kids figuring how to get back to a routine, trying to deal with the stress of so much happening in the world, and simply getting them to keep masks actually covering faces, and then adding that to every day majorly dull schedules and typical problem, it has to have been a horribly stressful year for you all.

      Thank you is sure not enough nor will it ever be ❤️

  8. Today’s12z GFS seems to be showing slight hints at subtropical development from hr 111 to 135 hrs

    The projected pressure drops a few mbs and the simulated radar sure looks convective on the west side of the sfc low. Maybe cause its over the gulf stream?

    850 mb temps don’t show a lot of warmth in the center vs outside of the center though.

    But, the wind field does shrink and compact somewhat around the low center which is a tropical feature.

    1. Now at 153 hrs out, looking a bit more tropical with a center comprised of warmer 850 mb temps. Projected pressure down a bit more.

      I bring this topic up again for 2 reasons.

      1) The NHC does seem to more quickly identify tropical/subtropical systems compared to the past

      2) Year 2 of current La Nina. Season should start early, if not very early.

        1. Jury’s out on that still. I don’t think this season will be out of control but I don’t think it’ll be “quiet” either.

      2. They’ve also admitted that they name things that used to be not named, because they were not really tropical. I still do not agree with this one single bit and I won’t be changing my opinion on that.

        Tropical is tropical.

        Non tropical is non tropical.

        Yes there are hybrids, which can be noted, and always were in the past.

        But naming non-tropical systems is incorrect and goes against the entire premise for using names for tropical cyclones.

        1. Insurance claims resulting from a named-storm can a higher “named-storm deductible,” typically 1% to 10% of the home’s value.

          3. Absolutely. And the fact some of this is based on money makes me even more furious.

            We’re lying about climate stats in the name of insurance. Pathetic choice…

            Think I feel strongly about this one? YOU GOT IT!

  10. Some medium range guidance is starting to show subtle (and a few not-so-subtle) hints about the back-door threat cutting off the warm-up for parts of our region next week. Hmm, where have we heard that before? 😉

    I’ll be monitoring for this as we get closer.

    An example of the not-so-subtle: Today’s 12z ECMWF has Boston in the middle to upper 70s on the afternoon of May 13. Just 24 hours later, afternoon of May 14, it’s in the upper 40s.

    1. I would certainly categorize that as NOT SUBTLE at all. 🙂

      And totally NOT surprising!

      1. Not one bit. Now it remains to be seen how it actually plays out, but one must never discount this possibility at this time of year here in New England NO MATTER WHAT “the models” say. (Refer to my comment on Wednesday’s blog.)

        1. Totally and completely agree. To think otherwise is pure folly. If it ever does turn out to be warm, then we are
          all winners anyway. But I doubt very much that happens. If there is any warmth, it will be brief and cut off at the pass by the evil BDF! We should have an icon for the BDF.

          here are a few

          https://ibb.co/D8CcWCj
          https://ibb.co/0hsMYdK
          https://ibb.co/qC7Zdgb
          https://ibb.co/JqgMpnC
          https://ibb.co/6XQbqtF
          https://ibb.co/Z1CVHq4

          IF I could draw at all, I would come up with one, but alas!
          I cannot. My drawings would be stick figures!

      2. I can remember a hum dinger of a BD front while I was in high school in a time long long ago. I think it was late April , but it could have been early MAY. I was at baseball practice after school and it was around 90 degrees, then the BD front charged through and before I knew it is was in the upper 40s, lower 50s and I was freezing! Gotta love New England Springs! (And I was in Millis, 20+ Miles from the ocean!!)

    2. mike, Eric, JR and Pete have all mentioned this. Possibly all Mets but I focus on them.

      1. I have seen all three and I can confirm that and also add Kevin to the list. These are all very good New England forecasters that would be on the lookout for such a thing. 🙂

        1. Agree. Sooooooo…….we know not to pay attention to anything more than three days out. Does that make us very good too. 😉

          1. Oh you can pay attention to things more than 3 days out but with every day further out you need a little bit more salt… 😀
            HAHA

            1. Exactly. I realized after I posted that I should have been more clear. But you got it.

  11. Do these back door fronts occur anywhere else or just restricted to the northeast states (especially New England)?

  12. Glad the Bruins are winning.

    But, goodness, the Red Sox have no offense. As bad as I’ve ever seen the Red Sox `attack,’ if you want to call it that.That goes back to when I first started watching the Sox in the early 70s. Anemic is putting it very lightly. They’re headed for last place in the division. Plain and simple. They have nothing except a few good starters, Devers (sort of – though he’s been mostly a no-show) and Bogaerts. That’s a recipe for last place. It’s also going to lead to Bloom’s departure.

  13. Today’s CPC outlook through May 20 shows well above normal temperatures.

    TK – Will this CPC change its tune over time?

    i.e., BDF??

    1. No, not based on that, because a BDF would impact a very small area, and would not necessarily drop temps to below normal for a 5-day period. If they do it would be based on a larger scale shift.

  14. Microcosm of the lost season – thus far (well, I’ll go out on a limb to say the Sox will not be contending for anything this year, except maybe 4th place) – is this play at first tonight: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1522747380717731840

    They don’t have a 1st baseman, they don’t have a 2nd baseman who’s in his normal position, they don’t have a rightfielder who can hit, or a centerfielder for that matter, catcher is awful, bullpen is a disgrace. Pitiful. Sox are in last place, with a worse record than the Orioles.

  15. So here is YET ANOTHER example of why many of us mets caution about guidance…

    GFS a few runs ago for Boston for May 14: PM temps upper 40s.
    GFS most recent run for Boston for May 14: PM temps near 80.

    There’s a reason we point this out often, and until we have developed perfect guidance, at which time there will be no more need for meteorologists, the reminder will be necessary. 🙂

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