DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)
Blocking. Spring. New England. These terms are very related and you all know that by now. This weather pattern is in place and the storm system we’ve been talking about all week as being a watcher for late week into the weekend is indeed performing as expected so far – rain near the South Coast, and a sharp cut off to that precipitation with the bulk of our area dry. This is going to be the case today, and then the rain should get pushed even further south during Sunday and on through Monday as well, as Canadian high pressure gains in the battle between it and that low pressure area to the south. All the while we will continue to endure a regionwide easterly flow, which you know means cool weather at this time of year. When we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, the orientation of low pressure to the south may change enough so that some cloudiness is thrown back westward into our area and high pressure is still held at bay to the north and west of here. This would continue a general onshore easterly flow and introduce the chance of a few showers, but 1) I’m not confident this is how it plays out and 2) if it does play out this way I would not expect a heavy rain event – just some unsettled weather toward the middle of the coming week. Obviously, some fine-tuning will be necessary for that part of the outlook.
TODAY: Filtered sun at times southern NH / northern MA and heavier overcast to the south with periods of rain South Coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly near the South Coast. Lows 43-50.Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Clouds/sun intervals with clouds most dominant closer to South Coast and sun becoming more dominant first to the north then south later. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers favoring Cape Cod. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers RI and eastern MA. Lows 48-55. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)
On the large scale, we continue to see some blocking into the middle of May. For us here, we should see surface high pressure sink to the south during the first few days of this period with a general temperature warm-up. Always have to watch for sea breezes or a back-door cold front, especially toward mid period. Later in the period another Canadian high may send cooler air down from the north or in a more indirect fashion via the Gulf of Maine. I’m not quite sure how this plays out yet this far in advance.
DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)
Weaker blocking transitioning to zonal (west to east) flow is my current idea. Variable temperatures but overall warmer trend with a fairly dry pattern – minor systems.
Good morning and thank you TK.
MISERABLE day today.
51 with a putrid NE wind quite strong and gusty.
DIGUSTING_!@*#*!@)(#!()@&*#)(!&#@)*(!&@)*(#&!)(&#@
I hope my constant complaining about spring hasn’t negatively affected you JpDave !! 🙂 🙂 🙂
No, i always have similar feelings, it’s just the added wind of today pushes me over the edge. I can’t stand this weather!
Thanks TK
Thanks TK. My mom keeps complaining about how cold it’s been. I try to tell her this meteorologist I know has explained to me that New England spring is cool. My dad agrees and mom changes the subject 🙂
Derby day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61cceAXnC6w
Pete’s forecast for the derby
“A little “meh”. Not expecting rain, but lots of clouds. Low 60s. Cool for Kentucky”
I think it was rainy yesterday and although I am sure the footing is designed to drain, I hope it has time to dry out
This is the first time I have gotten to Derby day and I don’t know the horses who are in it. I haven’t been able to follow the pre-races this season. And I have yesterday’s stuff on DVR which I am about to watch quickly. By the time I get to early afternoon I will be all caught up…. I think… 😀
After a nap of a few days, Our old friend wind is back and it is gusting steadily into the 30s.
It’s rattling some windows around here. I can only imagine what it’s like on the immediate shoreline.
Interestingly my daughter reminded me when our pear trees bloom, we have a couple of days of strong wind. The white flowers make it appear as if there are big snowflakes
We had something like that happen around here with one of my neighbors trees that has flowers with larger white petals about the size of what you would consider to be big snowflakes.
This wasn’t today that was one of our northwesterly wind events about 10 days ago.
Hey TK !
thank you for all the great posts and comments and insight.
I have learned more from you than any other site I have been on. it’s been a long time since I have commented so I thought it time to say hello and I appreciate your blog and the contributions from the other meteorologists here! Been following since the WBZ days
Cheers!
Thanks, Mr. DOH! Or can I call you “Pizza”? 😉
Feel free to join the chat more often!
Thanks TK !
I know we’ll probably get backdoored, but wouldn’t it be so New England to be 51F this Saturday and 91F next Saturday ??? And with barely any 70s or low 80s yet to acclimate to such a change.
This tendency is something I love about eastern New England’s weather in the spring.
I wonder though if anything will top April 17 2002… My favorite back-door cold front of all time.
93 to 57 in 10 minutes…
I remember that one well !!
I think my wife and I were at Ogunquit beach that day.
We ran into the car which was still very hot thankfully, as we were enjoying a brief, early season beach day.
That’s when the weather said “hah! early season beach day! It’s still spring pal!” 😛
That is one of the only times I remember a front that you could “hear” coming. A big part of this reason was that it was fairly calm just ahead of it, and I was at a field, near a lot of trees. You could hear in the distance the trees moving pretty significantly as the wind went from under 10 MPH to about 25-30 MPH from the NE immediately. There were no clouds (other than a few small preexisting cumulus) and it did not become overcast with the front’s passage. It stayed sunny through sunset (low clouds arrived at night). But the dust, tree debris, and even some bugs that were kicked up by that thing was an impressive site. Add to that a field full of 11 year old girls at soccer scrambling to the sidelines and it was quite the experience…
Logan 11 a.m.
Temp 49.
Wind NE 28 gusting 37.
JP Dave’s “FAVORITE” putrescence. 😉
Indeed!
Thanks TK.
Jacob has 85 for Friday! Kelly Ann has 80.
What a turnaround.
Assuming that happens it’s a decent turnaround but it’s definitely not unusual for this time of year.
I do think the period from the 12th through the 14th is our greatest chance to see the warmest temperatures, as I see it now.
JPD would be going nuts if this was February, thisclose to a moderate snow event just to our south. 😉
Come to think about it, I would as well. 🙂
It doesn’t take much to make me go nuts. 🙂
Leaderboard for derby. So far. Odds will probably change somewhat
https://imgur.com/a/m8cxAKu
I need to borrow some fans to blow storms OTS please lol. The climate models are not looking nice to the eastern Caribbean right now.
https://cyclonicwx.com/models/nmme/atl/pratea/
Thanks, TK.
The wind seems to come in gusts. Seems to be so windy a lot. Yesterday and some days before weren’t too bad. Looking forward to the 80’s later nxt. wk. It will probably feel really warm compared to the cool weather we have been having so much.
Nice sunshine to end the day. I was expecting the sky to look ominous most of the day, looking and smelling like rain if anything.
Hopefully Mother’s Day tomorrow will be even sunnier! 🙂
Thanks TK.
We have been held to the upper 40s here today in Northern CT with a stiff wind at times. Aside from a bit of light rain last night though, we have remained dry today.
My son was at Killington today and I dont think it cracked 40 there. He said the trails were actually a bit icy at first this morning. Still a tremendous amount of snow on Superstar!
https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/mountain-view
https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/superstar-cam
Next weekend may finally start to put a dent in it but that is a lot of snow to melt. Base is still 20 feet deep and over the top of the lift in spots. They should be able to go three more weekends to Memorial Day as planned if the pattern doesnt turn too warm.
Correction….it is now 48F there at the base. It was still in the upper 30’s last I checked!
Here is a shot my son took from the chairlift. Note the level of the top of the snow on the trail vs the bare ground under the lift. Still a long ways to go before all that melts…
https://imgur.com/Fxsn5VJ
Jay Peak also still open this weekend and contemplating next weekend as well. They have 10 trails still open.
Webcam:
https://jaypeakresort.com/resort/photo-day
Jay and Killington are the last two resorts in the East still open. Sugarloaf ME, Sugarbush VT, and Gore and Whiteface NY called it quits last weekend. Sugarloaf ME had wall to wall cover with 55 trails open on closing day last Sunday. Pretty impressive.
12z GFS….
Highs cracking 80 most areas by Thursday:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2022050712&fh=126
Mid 80s Friday:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2022050712&fh=150
Upper 80’s to low 90’s Saturday:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2022050712&fh=150
80’s even hold on for Sunday into Monday 5/16…
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2022050712&fh=150
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2022050712&fh=222
I guess I can finally put the winter coat away after this weekend. If I had AC, I would probably install that later this week as well.
Only in New England… 😉
Thanks, TK.
Derby picks…
5
17
4
6
3
15
But I’m torn. I have three sets of bets.
WOW at 80-1 Rich Strike wins the Kentucky Derby!
Crazy race.
I managed to have 3 Epicenter on two bets for $18 win.
And the very reason I am not a fan of racing showed clearly watching the man handling of Rich Strike post race. Sadly it exists in other equestrian disciplines also.
Today, the Red Sox blew their 9th save of the season in 14 opportunities. Suppose that number was more in line with the rest of the league, say, 2 or 3 blown saves. Well, the Red Sox would be in a much better position, despite the horrific offense.
I am headed to Washington DC midweek and wondered what the weather would be. Seems like the trip coincides with warmer weather here but I’m hoping that doesn’t mean steam heat there.
Onshore flow there, should be dry but highs in the lower to middle 70s Wednesday & Thursday which will end up being only slightly warmer than we are here. We don’t really get into the bigger warmth up here until probably Friday & Saturday, and even then the coast’s warming may be thwarted and we’ll have to watch for a back-door cold front as early as the weekend. Not sure when you come back but by then the orientation of things may have changed up somewhat.