Some Changes, But Still No Snow

86 Comments

5:13PM

We’ll go from clear & chilly tonight to sunny and milder Tuesday, a few showers will then usher in a period of mostly cloudy and very mild weather for the middle of the week, with a more widespread rain possible by Friday, leading to a dry, cooler, and windy weekend. All those changes take place this week – but still no significant snow to be found.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from 10-15 in deeper valleys to middle 20s immediate coast. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 42-47. Wind light variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Scattered rain showers especially after midnight.  Low 37-42. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 55-60. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 40. High 54.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 42. High 52.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 30. High 45.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 25. High 40.

86 thoughts on “Some Changes, But Still No Snow”

  1. Thanks TK.

    HM was saying in his blog this morning that the NAO has not gone negative since late August when Irene hit. That’s nearly 6 months now of not even going negative for a couple days? I don’t know who keeps track of these type of indices historically but could this be approaching some sort of record?

    1. We had very long stretches of positive NAO at times in the 1980s, but I’m not sure what the “record” is. I’d be willing to bet it is one of the longer stretches we’ve seen.

  2. Todd on BZ has a high 0f 60 for Friday on his 7 day. I think he also mentioned the possibility of T-storms on Fri.

    1. I’m not going to go for 60 Friday as I think the low track may be a little closer to being right over us (I know, still several days away but that’s how I see it at this point). I am going to pump my temps up a bit for Wednesday though. I think we break into sun and if that happens then 60 is attainable.

      2. TK, so if the track is right over us does that mean the mountains of VT get snow since they could be on the cold side of the storm?

        1. They may have a shot at some, but we’re going to be in a pretty warm airmass leading into this, even up there, so it may take some time to flip. Details will be easier to figure out as we get closer.

  3. 18z GFS says no 60 on Friday with the low passing to our east, quite different than the 12z run. Also the GFS does not have the EURO scorch for next week.

  4. My kids remember feb vacation 1990 when it was in 60s good part of week. But my youngest just reminded me of what she thinks was 2002 April vacation when it was over 90 at least one day. I just can’t remember what summer 1990 and 2002 were like.

    1. February vacation in 1983 was also a very warm week with a couple days near or over 60.

      There was a 90 degree day in April of 2004, and another somewhere else around there.

            1. April 25-April 27, 2009 we broke records with highs of 85-90 here in CT. I remember it well as my daughter was just born on the 24th and we couldn’t wait to get out of the hospital!

            2. History shows warm events scattered all over the place. I believe it was 1999 when we hit the upper 80s on the last day of March!

              1. I remember one of the relatively recent April 90F days. It had to be the one in 2002 and it was wild because a back door cold front came thru and I’m not exaggerating to say that, on a coastal Maine beach, there had to be a 2 minute temp drop of 20F + degrees and a 30 minute temp drop of 35F + degrees. The strangest thing was there were no low clouds with the front, it stayed clear. We had to run into the still hot car about 5 minutes after the front passed to warm up.

              2. Yes it does – and yes there are odd days – but I think it takes more than odd days to create the melt we are seeing of the ice caps.

  5. I’m hearing a rumor there gonna stop the commuter rail at 1030pm, if that’s the case it will be another thing against me staying here as I certainly want too, anyways I c late March weather/temps mid week 🙂

  6. Looking through the historical data (records kept since 1950), the longest ever stretch of positive NAO was 8 months which occurred 3 times: May-Dec 1972, Dec 1988-July 89, and Aug 1999-March 2000. There were two occurrences of 7 month stretches, and four other occurrences (besides this one) of 6 month stretches. So we are in the top 10 and counting.

  8. Whether its the GFS or the EURO, this morning’s 0z runs seem to show, unfortunately, repeated opportunities for severe weather from the plains to the southeast over the next 2 weeks. Repeated lows emerging out of the central Rockies, opening up the Gulf of Mexico ahead of their tracks with trailing cold fronts moving into warm, humid air masses……..I have a feeling with neutral or +NAO, nearly every one of these storms will track NW of New England.

    1. It wouldn’t surprise me Charlie. My aunt and uncle bought season passes this year and they have only gone 6 or 7 times and the conditions were decent at best. It has been a really tough year for southern ski areas esp. in MA. At least the northern mountains have gotten some natural snow this year and it’s been just cold enough to make more snow.

    2. I had also heard around end of Jan. that Vail, CO was seriously considering closing temporarily until they had more snow. They didn’t have enough to cover any of the back bowls or Blue Sky Basin. I believe those areas are open now as they have gotten some snow since, but not much. March is usually one of their snowiest months though so hopefully things are looking up. I skied there last year end of March and it snowed every day with the deepest base they have had in years. What a difference a year makes.

      1. A woman that works with my husband and her family just returned from Vail and said skiing was surprisingly good. I got my son gift cards for Killington this year for Christmas instead of a season pass. You can schedule ahead and get a discount on tickets and the cards are good for 4 years. The woman I spoke to who advised me to do this gave me GREAT advice.

  11. NAO remains postive and we know what that equals. UGH meter broken. I think were going to see a lot of inside runners and episodes of severe weather in the south. ALready the SPC has a large area of the south in a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday and that threat pushes further east on Friday. When I see that were already in a spring pattern early hopefully there won’t be as many tornadoes this year as there were last year.

    1. Ace, I was also unable to access the Tuesday oz run on that site. Only yesterday’s runs are options in the drop down. If you go to the meteocentre site or other sites that have the Euro, the latest run is up, so it seems to be a problem with wunderground.

      The Euro really deepens the storm at the end of the week moreso than the GFS. It’s track has also shifted further east, though it is still just west of us. Looks like a very windy weekend behind it as the storm pulls away.

      1. Thanks Mark. Do you think the EURO is an outlier at this point deepening that system and taking it further east? Or do you think that is becoming more and more likely.

        1. The Euro track has been sliding east but has been fairly consistent. However, compared to the GFS and CMC, it is much slower, stonger, and delivers a lot more QPF. I think it has the right idea with the track but may be deepening the system too much.

  13. JimmyJames – I feel that with the lack of storms in the past several months, doesn’t the energy build up and at some point lets loose?

    1. In other words, at some point we would get either one really big storm or a series of bad storms – rain or snow.

  14. Hey Rainshine…. I always say the weather balances itself out so I would not be surprised if we had a cool wet spring with some pretty good rain events. I don’t if one of my predictions for 2012 of a Major Noreaster is going to happen this winter.
    If that doesn’t will see what happens with the summer when I called for 2-3 big thunderstorm days and no hurricanes or tropical storms to make it up to New England.

    1. Thanks, JJ – that’s how I feel, too! But I still feel this coming summer will be when New England gets a hurricane. (I don’t want it – I just feel we’re about due)

    2. JJ, I’m curious, I know the NAO has been neutral/positive since Irene. Was the NAO negative for a while when Irene came up the coast? And if so, my bigger question is, was it the negative NAO that helped it track up here the way it did, like most of the winter storms we had last year?

      1. Hey AceMaster…. The NAO was negative when Irene came up the coast as it was for the rements of Lee in
        September which was the last time the NAO was negative for an extended time. The negative NAO was the reason
        for all the snow last year and the year before for the Mid Atlantic. This year it has been positive and when it is
        positive you don’t get big east coast storms.
        From Upton NY for Friday storm system regarding the track. This is going to be a rainorama since no cold air in place.
        THE POSITION
        OF THE LOW STILL HAS A WIDE RANGE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS HAVING IT IN
        SOUTHEAST CANADA…00Z ECMWF HAVING IT NEAR DELMARVA COAST…AND 00Z
        CMC HAVING IT JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR
        FRIDAY NIGHT

    1. I thought Irene made landfall in southwest ct, I thought it was identitical to Gloria, Bob was a dud for Bristol cty, I had a 67mph wind gust and had no power for a week, plus I heard that Irene had more media coverage only 2nd to Katrina ever, Irene was huge news for a week before it came right up the coast, have a great day, just going by my memory on what I remember

      1. Hey Charlie…. Irene made two landfalls. The first in the Outer Banks as a category 1 hurricane. The second was
        as a strong tropical storm around JFK airport. It is hard to believe with the damage it caused on parts of the southern
        CT shoreline.

  16. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browse.html

    Now casting the satellite a bit….once the disturbance that’s in the eastern Great Lakes passes by overnight and very early tomorrow morning, there’s not a whole lot of thick clouds behind it. I think there’s a good chance at the sun coming out tomorrow and the temps skyrocketing.

  21. Patriot place has called winter over, they usually leave them spread out across the parking lots but I just got stuck behind 15 plow trucks that looks like they drove back to its resting place at the dpw for 8 months I guess

  22. 12Z GFS deepens friday’s storm a bit more than previous runs but not as much as the EURO. Track still the same, west of NE. Could there be icing concerns in NNE? or will the air be too warm at the surface.

    1. The GFS track looks totally different than the Euro, doesn’t it? Euro sends a strong storm right up the coast (S to N) while the GFS low track is weaker and practically W to E across the Great Lakes to northern NE. We are just 3 days out from this storm and the models are depicting very different scenarios!

  23. If that NAO was negative it could POTENTIALLY be a whole new ball game here in SNE. With the NAO postive I don’t see anything other than an inside runner.

    1. Hadi, I noticed that as well – the entire 12z GFS run is quite interesting. It is much colder than previous runs and certainly would imply we have some snow chances over the next two weeks. That frame at the end of the run is complete fiction though as the low actually passes over or west of us. The heavy precip would all be gone by the time the colder air worked in. I’ve noticed the GFS has a tendency to way overestimate the precip and cold air on the west and south side of storms near the end of its forecast runs.

      1. The GFS has been hinting at some storminess around the 2/28 – 3/2ish timeframe for a few runs now. The runs are definately trending colder.

      2. Pure fiction but certainly noteworthy. I think cities would be foolish beyond belief to put away plows etc… Even in this pattern.

        1. I agree. There will be at least one more accumulating snowfall this year, even if it is bookended by fairly mild days.

  26. I think I just read a comment saying that plows were on their way to storage. I hope that is not true. We live in New England. Even in the mildest of winters, like this one, we can have accumulating snow until mid to late April. It would be pure folly to put the plows away. They did that back in March of 1997, and Menino and others were quite embarrassed come 1 April. As far as realistic snow chances this winter, I must say these are not great. But, there is always hope. I’ve been doing some model perusing and although we’re going to have plenty of mild and warm days ahead, there will be some cold days thrown in, maybe even some below normal cold days for a change come early March. We’ll see.

    I also read some of the comments on temperature anomalies in years past. While it’s interesting to note the high temperatures (peaks) we had in past February vacations and in March, it does not negate this year’s incredible run of consistently high temperatures on a weekly basis for over 12 weeks. I repeat, I’ve never experienced a winter like this, ever, especially if we account for consistently (well) above normal temperatures across most of the lower 48. A mild or even warm January is one thing. A mild to very mild November through February, and probably March (if we believe Brett Anderson) is very rare indeed.

    1. Joshua I agree – there are always exceptions but not the entire winter. I was actually saying we were disproving global warming tongue-in-cheek – I believe we are experiencing global warming – maybe mixed with trends but defintely influenced by our lack of care for our planet.

  27. Joshua – I agree with you re: the plows. I have said in one of my posts a some point that I still believe we could get a big snowstorm as late as anytime in April. And, as I also said and I believe TK said at one point – we got a snowstorm in Oct. Why not in April?

    But I wonder, can anyone guess why this is happening, besides the fact that the NAO has been positive? And I’m not talking about global warming or any of that stuff, either. I really can’t guess why myself but sometimes it seems scary to what the weather might bring in the next few months. Prob’ly nothing out of the ordinary – just me being paranoid! 🙂

    1. Rainshine – you’re not paranoid. It’s a weird pattern. I’m not scared about what the weather will bring in the coming months, but I am very curious. TK is right to point out how this pattern may be plausibly explained in rather simple terms. He’s an expert, I’m not. This said, I’m baffled at the monotony and longevity of the warm Wednesday trend around here, for instance, barely any snow in Buffalo, the mountains of NH, VT, and even out west it’s very meager, Billings MT at or near record highs 4 or 5 days out of 7 for the past 2 months, Duluth MN reporting that the ice on most lakes in Northern Minnesota is too thin for ice-fishing, etc …

      1. Joshua – I’m curious about what’s going on, too. That’s what makes the weather so interesting. And yes, TK is right that this pattern could be plausibly explained in more simple terms. In itself, the lack of storms creates a different kind of excitement – out of the norm.

  28. Vicki – I hope you don’t think I am discounting global warming. That could be a very real possibility. With the way we are all treating our Earth? I wouldn’t be surprised. I am just saying that there could be countless reasons. In the past, I have even suggested cellular phones! Who knows what radio waves are going out in the atmosphere as we chat away!

    1. It’s a real possibility. In fact, there’s a lot of evidence supportive of global warming. However, I’m not sure from a scientific standpoint how much we can attribute to mankind. I believe we’ve done many detrimental things to this earth (and the environment), and continue to do so at our own peril, but how much of the cumulative changes in climate are attributable to global warming is up for discussion. This winter’s anomalous pattern is such an outlier, I think as a statistician I’d throw it out until we see proof of a trend.

      1. I tend to be very logical – or at least I try to be – maybe sometimes too much. I tend to be a realist. But you are right. Proof – that is always the answer. We can always surmise – and it can be fun (I think it sometimes can be).

    2. oh my goodness I didn’t think that at all and rainshine – we don’t know – so there really is no opinion that is right or wrong. It’s just what I think and I don’t expect in my lifetime I’ll know the answer 🙂 I firmly believe there is never a wrong opinion 🙂

  29. I am not a global warming believer and am of the belief that weather runs in cycles. The past two winter’s the east was hit hard particularly NYC with 50 plus inches in 09-10 10-11 and Philadelphia with the record 78 inches in 09-10 and 10-11 with 45 inches. I would not be surprised if this starts a new cycle where the east is going to get off easy this winter and next winter. I do think next winter snowfall will be just a little closer to normal.

  31. Tom… That April 2002 back-door front event was insane. I was on the soccer field at my daughter’s practice. The temp was 93. The front came through with a wall of dust, bugs, and tree debris. By the time we got home, 15 minutes later, it was 57! And not done going down at that point…

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