Friday May 13 2022 Forecast (7:28AM)

48 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

The pattern transition continues on both the large scale and more regional scale. On the larger scale, the blocking pattern continues to unravel, as high pressure that was north of us sinks southeastward heading for a position more to our east in the next few days, while the low pressure area that hung out to our south drifts westward into the southeastern US, destined to weaken and then drift northward, with some of its remnant moisture reaching us in the form of clouds at times this weekend and a shower / thunderstorm threat Monday ahead of an approaching cold front before that front pushes offshore Tuesday announcing a westerly (zonal) flow having taken over. Backing up though, to today again. We have a lot of stratus clouds in place, even more widespread than yesterday morning, absent only in sections of northwestern Middlesex County, northeastern Worcester County, and a portion adjacent southern NH. Like yesterday, we will see erosion of this cloud deck as the strong May sun works on it from above, mixing the air. Where this will be incomplete and slowest to occur will be along the South Coast this time, as our surface winds will be turning more southerly, but again not a bad day overall for most of the region – with a decent warm-up away from the coastline and especially where the sun does shine. Saturday, our wind flow will be more southwesterly, before going back a bit more southerly on Sunday. As mentioned yesterday, this means that Saturday will likely be the warmest day of the weekend for most, by a few degrees, with a bit more influence from the ocean water to our south by Sunday. My feeling is that while we have a shower threat both Saturday and Sunday, it’s minimal and mainly for interior locations. We’re essentially looking at a dry weekend in terms of rainfall, but one in which you will feel an up-tick in humidity levels since it’s been so dry lately. That humidity will peak on Monday ahead of the aforementioned cold front before it crashes behind the front on Tuesday. We may not see total sunshine Tuesday though as there will be a pool of cooler air moving across the region aloft, and this sets the stage for clouds to pop up, triggered by the sun’s heating.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy then increasing sun north to south although South Coast hangs onto clouds much of day. Highs 61-68 shoreline, 69-76 inland except 77-84 interior valleys. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Remote chance of an isolated afternoon shower inland locations. Highs 70-77 coastal plain except cooler South Coast, 78-85 inland with warmest in valley areas west and north of Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Remote chance of an isolated shower inland locations. Highs 75-82 inland, cooler coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. More humid. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

Looking for a west-to-east larger scale pattern which should bring fair and seasonably cooler weather May 18-19. It tries to warm up after that but a frontal boundary may be hanging around the region with at least some cloudiness. The pattern still looks dry with not a lot of moisture available for rainfall, so any threat of rain should be minimal as it stands now.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

No significant changes to the pattern are anticipated going into late May. Looking for no big temperature extremes and a tendency to be on the drier side, but will keep an eye out for any blocking to return and change things up.

48 thoughts on “Friday May 13 2022 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    And Thank you for FINALLY giving your “blessing” for Boston’s snowfall win over Worcester. 😉

    Boston = 54.0” (#6) 🙂
    Worcester = 53.6”

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Happy Friday the 13th
    and Glazed Donut Day! 🙂

    Go Celts!

    THREE NHL Game 7s in a row tomorrow!!!
    Does it get any better than that?

    1. I’m glad Tampa – Toronto also has a game 7.

      That has been super, high level playoff hockey.

      I can’t imagine being a Maple Leafs fan.

  7. 69 here with 61 DP. Even with windows open to hopefully let in some cooler evening air, the house held the heat enough last night for AC upstairs.

  9. I can’t stop laughing. We are at the DD drive thru. My youngest just asked what is up with the cloudiness. I told her you had a great explanation today.

    Her response….I don’t want an explanation. I want sun

    My suggestion. Give her a hard time on FB 🙂 🙂

      1. hahahahaha – she just walked through to take the puppy out and announced the sun is out. I will let her know she should credit you!!

  10. Perhaps there’ll be a wind shift and that could certainly do it and then some ….

    Nevertheless, a bit surprised NWS projecting 81F at Logan today.

    1. The only way that happens is that late day sea breeze fail. Otherwise the high will be 66.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    High humidity is indeed returning. Not a friend of mine. But, thankfully in and around Boston it makes its presence known only about 4 months a year. I’m already dreaming of late September.

    For the past 20 years we’ve been spoiled in Boston with 4 (well, 5 if you include the NE Revolution) teams that are usually competitive, sometimes make deep playoff runs and even win championships.

    Not so with the Toronto Maple Leafs; a storied franchise in the sense that many stories have been written about them since 1967, and most of them are not good.

    – 20,100 days since a Cup (that was in 1967, for those thinking of doing the math).

    – 6,697 days since winning a playoff series (this is the more alarming statistic).

    So, if we ever get down on `our’ teams for not doing as well as we’d like, please consider Toronto Maple Leaf fans.

      1. Exactly as anticipated.

        The only shot they have of warming significantly there today is a failure of the sea breeze later. And speaking of the sea breeze, it is strengthening here in Woburn, some 11 or 12 miles northwest of Logan.

        1. No evidence of it strengthening here, at least not with temperature. We’re at 83. Now the sensor is in the sun, so it is likely 80 or 81. Either way, not being too much affected by the Sea breeze, no yet anyway.

  16. Logan’s sea breeze has relaxed. Now only 7 mph from the SE.
    If that swings around to S or SW, could we have a 5PM
    jump to 80 at Logan???????

  18. In Woburn my wind is coming from the south southeast and it is very refreshing while the cumulus clouds are drifting west to east. Visible sea breeze cell.

  19. 81. My new station says 86. It’s been accurate but Local wunder stations say 81 so going with that till I can verify. Clouds blocking the afternoon sun on deck. And it’s no shoes and no socks weather for the first time.

    Love it

  21. Saw my first couple complaints about “the heat” on social media today. That was funny. 😉

  22. Wind shift to south in Boston and a 12 degree temperature rise in about as many minutes. 79 now. 🙂

    2. Exactly what I found as I was heading into work around then. I was expecting 80 driving through Belmont, but I hadn’t been expecting 79 for a walk in concert clothes — although I had been alerted to the possibility by JPDave at 3:45! Thanks. 🙂

      1. Well some guidance has had that, but we know that story. Same model a couple runs later has Boston falling into the 50s after being back-doored.

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