Saturday May 14 2022 Forecast (8:27AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

Our weekend will feature a summer preview – not hot, but quite warm away from any ocean’s influence, as we have a southwesterly flow today and a bit more southerly on Sunday. Today will be the warmest day in many areas by a few degrees. There is going to be a variety of clouds sharing the sky, with low level stratus clouds often flirting with the South Coast, and sometimes dominating there. A shield of higher clouds will start to overspread the sky as today goes on from southwest to northeast, and thickens and lowers a little bit tonight, enough to bring some showers through the region during the overnight hours and first thing on Sunday. This is actually the remnants of that low pressure area that sat to our south for many days during the blocking pattern during the past week. As the block has been breaking down, that low pressure area moved westward, then northward, and will be making a transition to a disturbance joining a more west to east jet stream at higher latitudes, but it has to pass by us in the process. The good news is we get rid of it for most of Sunday, which looks like quite the nice day after we get rid of the earlier more extensive clouds. However again we have to watch for more stubborn lower clouds at the South Coast due to the southerly air flow. Both today and Sunday run a small chance of seeing a couple showers pop up over inland locations, but this is a very low chance that is not worth altering any outdoor plans over other than simply keeping an eye on the radar. Also, with the warmer weather, many people may want to try to sneak in an early beach day. If you do, please keep in mind that it is only mid May and the ocean water temperatures are as cold as the upper 40s to lower 50s. This is water you don’t want to immerse yourself in for more than a minute or two, if you’re brave enough to do even that. Water that cold can impact you quickly and impair muscle function. Also worthy of mention are tree pollen counts which will be very high the next few days with the lack of general rainfall in the forecast – so allergy sufferers take note. Sorry for the more negative sounding information, but it’s important to note these potential issues. Something a little more fun to talk about: A total lunar eclipse that occurs on Sunday night / early Monday. The full Flower Moon this year will be eclipsed from the 9 p.m. hour Sunday to nearly 3 a.m. Monday, with a total phase that lasts nearly 90 minutes from about 11:30 p.m. to about 1:00 a.m. Although we are not expecting a totally clear sky, the variable cloud cover across most of the region should allow some visibility for this event. Plan accordingly! More about this in tomorrow’s blog post. Back to the forecast – our preview of summer continues Monday with moderate to high humidity for this time of year and an approaching cold front, which may trigger some shower and thunderstorm activity before it passes by. We’ll see a return to cooler weather with lower humidity for Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, and upper level cool pool and surface trough will at least trigger clouds and may produce a shower or even an isolated thunderstorm in a day that will otherwise be generally rain-free but fairly breezy. High pressure approaches on Wednesday and while we will still have a bit of a breeze to contend with, it will be quite pleasant – a land breeze for the region as opposed to the chillier onshore flow we had not so long ago.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Remote chance of an isolated afternoon shower inland locations. Highs 72-79 coastal plain except cooler South Coast, 80-87 inland with warmest in valley areas west and north of Boston. Moderately humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Moderately humid – dew point upper 50s to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds and a possible shower early morning, then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers inland, mainly well west of Boston. Highs 75-82 inland, cooler coastal areas. Moderately humid – dew point around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Moderately humid – dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, especially late-day. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Humid early, then drying. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm is possible. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

High pressure moves overhead with fair, mild, and tranquil weather May 19, then the high shifts offshore and we remain mainly dry but warm up later next week (May 20-21). By the time we get later into the period there are hints of high pressure in eastern Canada battling with high pressure to the south in the Middle Atlantic. This can set up a back-door frontal passage and a cooler shot of air from the Canadian Maritimes of the high to the north is strong enough, or a bit of an unsettled stretch of the boundary comes in and sits nearby. Obviously, it’s far too soon to speculate any further than that.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

Watch early period for an air mass battle and potential unsettled weather. Overall, dry trend should win out and we end up mainly fair.

66 thoughts on “Saturday May 14 2022 Forecast (8:27AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK! Another excellent write up

    The overnight low here was 65. We are up to 62 as of 8:30.

    3. If anything, I am thinking that it could be pushed further east. There won’t likely be an ocean wind this time around. Of course you could be correct as well Jimmy. We will see.

  5. Good mornin and Thank you TK.

    I don’t care what anyones forecast s
    I believe 90 is in play today. We shall see. Already 73 here.

  6. Normal snowfall for Worcester = 72.9”

    Normal snowfall for Boston = 49.2”

    It’s no wonder Worcester clobbers Boston just about every year. I bet they clobber even their surrounding areas as well.

    1. Inland location as well as elevation. Even inside runners usually produce at least some snow for the Worcester area. Not so in Boston, generally speaking.

      To me, this past winter’s stand-out performance was on Cape Cod, in terms of snowfall and numbers of storms that produced snow on the peninsula.

      1. Worcester definitely “underachieved” to say the least. I’ll take it though! 🙂

  10. Good morning, and thank you, TK.

    Full credit for your ~3:00 post yesterday, and apologies that I didn’t fully process it; it didn’t have quite as much excited punctuation as JPD’s!!

    (You’re not kidding about the tree pollen.)

    I’m looking forward to Tuesday/Wednesday.

    1. I sure agree on pollen. I am my own worst enemy but can’t seem to make myself keep windows closed

    2. I was just being a wise-butt. I didn’t, at the time, think the wind would make it around to south or southwest at Boston. But it did. We always know that’s possible when the sea breeze is not too strong. 🙂

  12. By the way, it is up to 81 at Logan with a WSW at 10 mph.
    Hmm, if Logan doesn’t lose the land breeze, temps could go high.
    90????? Would not surprise me. I Hope it doesn’t get that warm!

    My DP sensor is reading 66. I see a 64 downtown and
    61 at Logan.

    1. I don’t have a DP sensor on my new system. I checked all surrounding wunder stations. Temp identical to mine. DP 61 on three and 62 on the fourth

  14. Logan is up to 82.

    84 here and 84 at Norwood, although the Sun may be stating
    to influence my sensor. For sure it is 82 here and could be higher. 🙂

  15. The modeled 850 mb temps today are running 12 to 15C and were pretty warm.

    Its a week away and lots can happen, but next Saturday’s warm surge has 850 mb temps projected at 19-21C.

    Those 850 mb temps, with dry ground, sun and a downsloping westerly wind component could produce some interesting high temps.

    3. I have daily data for Lowell back to 1889. In that 133-year span, Lowell has hit 100 exactly twice during the month of May:

      5/21/1975 – 100
      5/22 /1992 – 101

      For Lawrence, the all-time record for May is 98, set on May 22, 1911.

      Records for Beverly only go back to 1996, but Newburyport has records back to 1911. Their record for May is 100 on May 23, 1911.

  17. Thanks TK.

    It’s downright toasty here at the softball field in Franklin CT for our first tournament weekend of many this summer. Temps are in the low 80s but I’ve had snack shack grill duty most of the day so add 20 degrees to that!

    This is our third straight day over 80 here but didn’t even make it past Thursday night in our house before having to turn on the AC. Two hours of everyone bitching and I finally gave in 🙂

  20. Well, my sensor is reading 90. We ALL know it is not 90.
    I suspect it is 87. I am going to move that thing as I am sick
    of these bogus readings!!!

  21. At 2:35pm on Wednesday, it was 48F in Marshfield, with a northerly breeze, resulting in a wind chill of 44F.

    Now its, 84F with a 63F dewpoint and a heat index of 85F.

    My wife, who listens to me complain about the cold, is giving me some fun grief for putting on the A/C.

    Well, there’s no middle ground here in Marshfield. Very few 60s and low 70s days with 50F dewpoints.

    Its either raw cold or straight to mid summer.

    This 84F feels like a soupy 95F. A/C is on, LOL !!!!!!!!!

    1. That is quite a temp swing.

      And….. Hmmmm you brought to mind my youngest complaining about cold and having AC on as if several nights ago. I don’t think I’ll mention this to her 🙂

  22. 12z EURO running.

    Up to next Friday.

    Looks like it might be setting up for the 1 day blast furnace for next Saturday also.

    1. seeing 19 – 22C (850mb) temps advecting towards New England overnight Friday night into pre-dawn Saturday.

      1. lots of mid-upper 90s projected, 2pm next Saturday. 90F at Logan, obviously cooler south coast and Cape.

        Well, we’ll see if things slow down or speed up as time goes by this week and how the models project the position of the 500 mb ridge, which can determine back door front potential, etc

        1. I would agree its reasonable not to buy it to that extreme extent.

          Potential for a warm day at this point.

  23. The first of many warm/humid days.

    My cat is sprawled out on the hardwood floor, meowing. I think she’s talking about the weather change. She may even be asking me for a forecast.

    I did bring out the fans.

    Of course, while it’s 86F – where I am it got to 87F, but has `cooled’ off since – the Bruins will be on the ice in North Carolina playing the Hurricanes in Game 7 of the 1st round. Meanwhile, the Celtics will also play a Game 7 (2nd round) in Boston, I don’t think I’ve ever experienced this: two Game 7’s on one weekend. We’re really lucky in Boston. Our teams compete, and sometimes win it all. Frequently enough so that it’s not a distant memory.

    1. I’m chuckling. Cat from upstairs has been spread out on my wood floor all day. Smart creatures

      There is a filtered sun and a lovely breeze now.

    2. I thought of you. Joshua. I’m not a beer drinker but Mac and family introduced me to a Shandy years ago. It’s a perfect day for one.

  24. Sometimes just gotta laugh at the models outside of day 10 and the people that post them on social media , exhibit a the GFS the last couple of runs.

      1. I’m aware of that, SAK. I’m also cognizant that it feels different this time, judging from his comments in recent months, and those of his teammates. In the post above I said “likely departure.” And if so, I will miss seeing him play. My guess is that we’ve seen his last game as a Bruin. Time will tell.

  26. VERY light rain here. I was sitting out and thought I was imagining it at first. Looks as if the western third of CT might be having a bit more

  27. Maple Leafs lose again. I believe they’re 0 and 10 in possible series-clinching games since 2013. They haven’t won a series in 17 years, and their last cup was in 1967. I feel badly for Leafs fans.

    1. I feel for their fans too.

      No shame in losing this series.

      Its losing to the Canadiens last year and Columbus in the Covid bubble 2 years ago that are lost opportunities.

      But not against Tampa. This was a great series, conference finals worthy series.

      1. I think after so many losses like this though their fans will feel less forgiving. 😉

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