Sunday May 15 2022 Forecast (8:47AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

I hope you enjoyed yesterday’s summer preview with lots of sun and warm temperatures. Of course some coastal areas were cooler, as would be expected where wind came off water at this time of year, but even those areas were considerably warmer than during the many days of easterly air flow last week, so they did not completely lose out. During last night, the low pressure that was part of that blocking pattern, in the process of the pattern’s break-down, finally made its way north northeastward and up into southern New England, and will complete its journey across our region today. What this does to us is make our air flow a little more southerly, and with that and more cloudiness today we’ll see temperatures a few to several degrees cooler than yesterday, with 80+ the exception instead of the rule. While this happens though, the dew point will still be on the higher side, around 60, so you’ll still notice that higher humidity. The shower activity with the arrival of the low pressure area has exited the region, but with the air somewhat unstable both today and this evening we can see some pop up showers and even an isolated thunderstorm in a few locations. but the coverage on these will be fairly low, so not everybody will see them, and areas that do will not be impacted for long. This brings us to tonight’s total lunar eclipse. This is a long-duration eclipse, starting just after 9:30 p.m. tonight and ending just before 3:00 a.m. Monday. The WHW area will experience totality from around 11:30 p.m. Sunday to about 1:00 a.m. Monday, with a peak totality at 12:11 a.m. … but will we see it? We’re not going to have a 100% clear sky. We’ll be contending with a variable amount of cloud cover, but what may help is that a little bit of drying will take place as that low pressure area will be north of us, and the wind will have shifted a little more to the west. Some of the short range guidance which simulates the cloud cover is showing some pretty decent gaps in the cloud coverage, which if true could allow many of us to at least get periodic unobstructed viewing of the event. The long-duration of the event also increases the odds. Fingers crossed! Back to the weather. We’re not done with our warm/humid summer preview yet as we get to Monday, as we’ll be in the air mass ahead of an approaching cold front. As is typical for this time of year, while the front brings the threat of showers and thunderstorms, some of the storms potentially severe, the greatest severe threat will be mainly west of the WHW forecast area as our area will have a stabilizing influence from a southerly wind off the still cool water to the south. However we should be on the lookout for at least the chance of passing downpours / t-storms with possible gusty wind as we get into late Monday afternoon and evening. Once that front goes by, that threat ends, and dew point drops, and the temperatures does as well, but modestly. Tuesday will be a “cooler” day but still quite nice with many areas reaching or exceeding 70. However there will be a pool of colder air above and a surface trough that has to swing through the region from west to east during the afternoon hours, and this could trigger the development of showers and even a few thunderstorms, even with some hail potential due to the colder air above us. If this takes place it would be a fairly short-lived event for any given location. Canadian high pressure approaches the region on Wednesday with fair, breezy, and seasonably cool weather, and then the high moves right over us on Thursday which in terms of sunshine and comfortable air is going to likely end up as the pick of the week, unless you like it warmer to hotter. More to come in the DAYS 6-10 section about that. First, the details for the next 5…

TODAY: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun, and a slight chance of a passing shower or isolated thunderstorm especially during the afternoon hours. Highs 68-75 coastal plain, coolest South Coast, and 75-82 over inland areas. Humid – dew point near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower and slight chance of a thunderstorm evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 60-67. Humid – dew point near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, especially late-day. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Humid early, then drying. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGH: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

High pressure ridging building over the region including surface high pressure to the south means fair weather and a significant warm-up May 20-22 including the first chance of 90+ temperatures some areas on the May 21-22 weekend. Later in the period watching for a frontal boundary slipping down from the north and a wave of low pressure bringing a fairly rare rain chance.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

A couple shower threats exist, but overall pattern still looks dry despite this. Temperatures near to above normal with weak ridging along the East Coast and a trough in the Midwest.

43 thoughts on “Sunday May 15 2022 Forecast (8:47AM)”

  6. Thank you, TK! Great write up. I copied the past re eclipse timing and sent to my family.

  12. Thanks Tk . Back to Normalcy sort of . Day shift opened up at work 7-3:30 Sunday – Thursday W/ Friday & Saturday off . Started today . Put the air conditioners in the bedrooms yesterday & it’s my season now . Enjoy today everyone.

      1. Thanks it really is as it was my goal all along to get back on days . It’s as close to Monday – Friday as you get . I don’t mind Sundays as it’s better then Saturday. Fridays & Saturdays off is good . Have a good day Jean

  17. Good morning all and thanks for the B’day wishes!

    Today is the first day of the hurricane season in the eastern Pacific.

    Another hurricane note … Back in February, I posted about changes in the forecast zones for hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf. Essentially more accurate forecasting is hoped for by going from 32 forecast zones to 60 zones. We will see how this works out … but for now here is an article with bunches of “zone maps.”

    https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/ebc71a5d460d4a6e952f90d5578d87db

    2. One clarification, those are not hurricane forecast zones – they are marine forecast zones. Just like the NWS handles the forecasts for the waters close to the coast, NHC handles the marine forecasts for the waters all across the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean (except the coastal waters of PR/VI), and the Gulf (away from the US coast.

  19. Happy Birthday Longshot!

    Today is also the birthday of a dear long-distance friend of mine. I have never met her in person but we have been friends since the spring of 2002 first via AOL Instant Messener then email then Facebook after a dream I had in March of that year left a screen name in my head which I then had to find out if there was a reason I dreamed it as it would not leave me alone. Well, 20 years later, the reason is still a friendship that is strong. She lives in the northern Middle Atlantic, married with 2 wonderful children, and I am not sure if we’ll ever meet in person, but it’s been a joy to be there to support her in her journey so far and also be on the receiving and of much support from her as well, especially when I have battled health issues.

    Story #2: This morning before I headed out to do the errands for my mother, I was listening to a CD collection of songs by the group Ambrosia. I’ve interacted with the singer, David Pack, on social media as he has a strong presence there and is very active in keeping in touch with fans. Anyway, I’m in the grocery store, which plays a nice selected of music on a routine basis, and one of their songs comes on and I say to myself “what are the odds of hearing the same song from the late 1970s (“How Much I Feel”) twice in the same morning without having purposely done it?” … Shortly thereafter, as the song continues to play, I hear a voice from the next aisle singing happily even if slightly off key “That’s how much I feeeeel, feel for you baby….” Continuing my shopping I end up in that aisle to find a gentleman maybe a touch younger than I am or close to the same age, doing some shopping, and a younger lady stocking the shelves. I couldn’t resist: “That was you singing, wasn’t it?” He looks slightly embarrassed but also amused, admits to being the source of the vocal, after which I say “Great tune by the way. I’ve talked to that singer on social media – very very nice guy!” … He heads off to do his thing and I have a short conversation with the worker about how great that music is and she adds “they just don’t make songs like that now”. One of those moments that brightens your day up for sure. 🙂

    P.S. An extra story: I don’t carry hair ties in my car. I have very short hair. Yesterday, I was yard sale hopping, windows down, with my son and his friend. My son has very long hair, and had forgotten a tie to make a pony tail while we were out and about. Between two of the stops, I swing by the cemetery to tend to the flowers where my father and brother have their resting place, and I get back to the car to find a hair tie that surely wasn’t there before in the door handle. “Here Nate, your uncle Dinny sent this for you.” 😉 My brother spent several years with long hair and had to do the same thing himself back in the late 60s and early 70s – you know, that hippy look. 😉

    Have a good Sunday. Let’s hope for enough clear sky for at least a partial view of the lunar spectacle tonight. 🙂

    2. Okay then….guess who dissolved into tears as I read your stories. I completely lost it with the amazing extra story. Thank you for sharing ❤️❤️

  21. This morning I had my first DD iced coffee of the season! I’ll likely go back to “hot” for the workweek but definitely iced next weekend. 🙂

    Not looking forward to those 90s though…

    1. Probably more like upper 80s to around 90, and today’s 12z GFS has backed off a tad. Most of the time we’re looking at temps being over-forecast this far in advance. However, the pattern does support some heat around that time which is why I added the potential to the outlook. 🙂

    2. Tried to pick up an iced tea in Starbucks Sutton after a curbside grocery pickup. Drive thru was closed. Not sure I want to know why

  24. Vicki I believe you are correct. I know the storm prediction center had us in a slight risk for severe weather that day. At that point there was no enhanced category. It was just slight moderate or high. I believed the storm prediction center would have put a good chunk of SNE in the enhanced risk category that day.

    1. That makes perfect sense. Thank you, JJ. Hope you have gotten to the course this weekend !

  25. Interesting to note while the GFS insists on a tropical cyclone moving through the Gulf of Mexico at a strength that has never been observed in May, it is the only global model developing this system.

    Double red flag.

  26. That blob that was once a line of storms moving west to east looks to be to our area just in time to block at least three start of the eclipse If not most. Arghhh

  27. Spc has moved severe risk signifcantly more Eastward. I think it will move back to the WeSt.

    1. I think it’s ok there. Remember the wording anyway. Main threat is still to the west.

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