Monday May 16 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)

The summer preview hangs on today with some warmth and humidity in place, but a cold front will put an end to that as it swings through from west to east this evening. Showers and thunderstorms can pop up in some unstable air ahead of the front, mainly away from the coast, during the day today, and more showers/storms will be generated by this front but the heaviest activity and greatest threat of strong to severe storms will occur west of the WHW forecast area with a weakening version of these moving through here this evening. Tuesday, drier air arrives but with upper level low pressure and a surface trough to cross the area from west to east we can still see a shower pop up, especially during the afternoon. High pressure brings dry weather midweek, breezy Wednesday as the high will be west of us, and more tranquil Thursday as the high moves overhead. Friday, a warm front moves through and high pressure builds to our south, with a warm-up occurring, although it looks mainly dry with no rain threat.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated midday and afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring areas west and north of Boston. Highs 76-83, cooler South Coast. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Humid early, then drying. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)

Fair and warm to hot weather with high pressure in control and centered south of the region May 21. Watching for a frontal boundary to move across the region during May 22 and/or 23 with a shower threat and a cooling trend. Some chance of rainfall later in the period as a low pressure area approaches and the boundary hangs nearby.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)

A couple shower threats exist, but overall pattern still looks dry despite this. Temperatures near to above normal with weak ridging along the East Coast and a trough in the Midwest.

60 thoughts on “Monday May 16 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  8. Thanks TK. I am going to be watching the radar later to if those storms maintain strength heading into my part of CT.

  11. Few renegade cells popping in New England, one in the vicinity of Worcester.

    Even this close to the coast, I can see a few decent cumulus developing looking west.

      1. I love summer-type, tall cumulus clouds, especially when they have that pink/orange look from haze.

        1. These are white with a bit of grey. Behind them smaller whispy clouds are swirling around. Looks awesome

  12. ST Watch up for western MA, NW CT, eastern and central NY to the Canadian border and all of VT

    1. I don’t know how to capture the image on my radar pro but the flashes of lightning all along and stretching out from that line is mesmerizing

  14. Everything is traveling SW to NE and not west to east. Does that lower chances of severe weather through a good portion of MA?

    1. Its indicative of how well formed the 500 mb feature is to our west, backing our flow from SW to NE, as you described well above.

      The ocean marine layer this evening should work north and cool off most of our region to help stabilize things a lot.

      2. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if most of the coast doesn’t
        even see a drop of rain. But then again, all it takes is
        a dying T-storm to drop some rain. We shall see.

        It looks like the cell that traversed SW to NE across central MA, dumped some hail, else it was unbelievably heavy rain!!!

              1. I don’t know how many ways to say that along with wind from one direction there is occasional mixed wind from another direction that is slightly cooler. Or was.

                1. Maybe in JP wind is always steady from one direction. Here I watch the flags whip one way or the other very often

  19. I am just getting some showers along with a few rumbles of thunder but it is dark. Ryan Hanrahan was just saying the line started to bow out and sometimes you get rotation on the leading edge of these. The rotation is broad at the moment.

  21. Yes it has been dropped. The storm to me never got to the point where the rotation to tightened up.

    1. And T&L here. Well about 10 miles.

      I think I am talking to myself but then I excel at that 🙂

    2. Its dark down here all right now…black in fact 🙂

      The line actually moved through here around 630-7PM with some very heavy rain and a few flashes of lightning. Not much in the way of wind though. Nothing really to write home about but was nice to finally get a decent dump of rain, albeit brief.

    2. I just saw that video posted by Ryan Hanrahan as well. Pretty incredible! The guy pulled over and basically let the tornado go right over the top of his car.

      I found it pretty funny he was talking to his wife as he was driving straight toward the tornado and didnt realize it until it was right in front of him!

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