Tuesday May 17 2022 Forecast (7:52AM)

36 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

Today we’ll be in the zone between low pressure to the northeast and high pressure approaching from the west. The air will be cooler drier than yesterday and the breeze will be active. Upper level low pressure crossing the region brings cold air aloft and will initiate diurnal cloud development. A few of these clouds may grow enough to produce a shower, favoring areas in southern NH and adjacent northern MA sometime this afternoon. High pressure brings dry weather Wednesday with diminishing wind. Systems are moving more quickly now and a warm front will cross the region Thursday with cloudiness, but right now it appears the rain threat will be minor and limited mostly to the morning hours. We warm up late week with another preview of summer heat arriving by the weekend as high pressure builds along the Atlantic Seaboard.

TODAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of an afternoon shower favoring northern MA and southern NH. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts as high as 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of light rain overnight. Lows 51-58. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with a chance of light rain early, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

Another preview of summer heat ends with a cold front and shower/t-storm threat on May 22. Cooling to more seasonable or even slightly cooler than normal after that. Watching for a low pressure wave with rain threat around May 24 – moving faster than current medium range guidance shows.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

Overall pattern dry, zonal flow, but brief wet weather threats with air mass changes. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal.

36 thoughts on “Tuesday May 17 2022 Forecast (7:52AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Here is something I found from Mark Rosenthal. Yes, it is more than a day old, but I find it very interesting as my wife and I are having a discussion on whether or not to install the ACs. Based on this, I would say YES! Based on other forecasts, I would say NO. 🙂

    https://ibb.co/XpWk6VF

    1. YES!!! No time like the present, especially since your wife needs to be as comfortable as possible. 🙂

    2. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd&rh=2022051700&fh=105&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd&rh=2022051700&fh=129&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      Projected dps early (5am) Saturday morning and Sunday morning of low 60s

      Overnight lows of 66F and 70F respectively in Boston.

      So …… not the mid-summer brutal nights that don’t let the house cool off where you really do need the AC, but probably still warm nonetheless during the day without an AC.

      1. Thanks Tom.

        It’s only Tuesday. I’ll wait and see. IF it looks like
        3 days of HHH, the Acs are going in. If it is only 1 day, we like to have the windows available, so no. If it is 2 days, then
        not sure. 🙂

        1. I sure understand wanting windows. I’ve mentioned here that the upstairs has needed AC for several days running. Down here I have has everything open wide. It’s been warm but tolerable and I love the breeze going through the house.

      1. 2 weeks ago I was still cranking up the heat. Glad that is over for a few months.

        Hopefully HHH days will be very few though.

        1. Interesting that we learned that we didn’t have to use heat after April 13. Sad part is that it costs next to nothing comparatively to heat this house and a small fortune to cool it. Whoever installed the AC did it arse backwards

        2. Once the house got over 68-70 degrees I put them in. Especially at night I sleep best with inside being between 66-68 degrees.

  7. While we’re dealing with temperatures near or over 90 this weekend, both the GFS and ECMWF hammer the Colorado’s Front Range with heavy snow. The Euro gives Denver a few inches with the heaviest south, towards Colorado Springs, while the GFS gives Denver 12-18″, more in the foothills to the west.

    May 20-21, 2019 – Denver received 3.7″, so a snowstorm this late in the season wouldn’t be unprecedented. The latest that Denver has ever received 1″ or more of snow was May 29, 1975. Their latest measurable snow was 0.5″ on June 5, 1953.

  9. Question. There have been a few times lately that the model guidance for 7-10 days out has been questioned. I get that since we all know after three days accuracy dwindles. I may be wrong, but I’ve always thought the purpose of the models as they move further out in time is to indicate what might be. I’m saying this poorly I know. But my basic question is are the models meant to be a tool for trained meteorologists to use but only as guidance and not as a forecast?

  10. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2022051712&fh=105&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Saturday … yes, the south coast and Cape will be cooler, but I don’t know if it will be drastically cooler.

    The 850 mb temps at the south coast and the Cape are projected to be 20-21C and not a strong gradient due to a weak low to our west.

    I could see the south coast and Cape attain low 80s themselves Saturday and hang in there until a lower 4 or 5pm sun angle finally allows some cooling.

    Wouldn’t be surprised by a Logan or eastern Mass seabreeze occasionally Saturday as the gradient doesn’t look super strong.

  11. I think this coming Saturday is going to be quite hot.

    Last Saturday, we accomplished mid 80s and the 850 mb temps were 12-15C.

    This Saturday is projected at 18-21C for 850 mb temps.

    That’s a big difference for what can be accomplished for temps at the surface.

  12. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022051712&fh=264

    So, I went with my daughter on her tour of U Tampa back in February and evidently, I was a bit embarrassing with some of the questions I asked.

    I laughed and told her I held back on one question, which was going to be, “does the school have a hurricane plan?”

    I don’t think I’d be here today to type this, had I asked it, judging by her reaction.

    Anyhow, I figure Tampa or the Gulf coast will get clobbered this year.

        1. Hahahahahaha. Two daughters and three granddaughters and I sure understand your concern.

  14. Showers did form and pass through the areas as I expected them to, with the secondary front / trough. They even made it further south than I expected. A few along the South Coast now but will be gone soon.

    No shower threat tomorrow.

    Thursday unsettled. A lot of places may stay in the 50s.

    Late-week / weekend return to summer preview. Not unusual for May, by the way.

  17. It has been WINDY on the north shore all day. Sustained winds seem to be 15-20 mph. I think we had some 25-30 mph gusts. And a little rain thrown in … very little.

    1. As I sit on the deck and watch the wind blow two fairly heavy chairs across, I wondered how it was along the shore.

      1. Leaving work tonight in Quincy, the wind was strong enough to shut my car door on its own!

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