Warmer, Then Wetter, Then Windier

147 Comments

4:39PM

The mild pattern goes on, with no snow in sight. There is some rain in sight however, in the form of showers tonight as the leading edge of warmer air moves in, and a more widespread rainfall Thursday night into Friday as a stronger low pressure area moves into New England. Behind this storm expect a very windy start to the weekend as it dries out.

Forecast for eastern MA and nearby neighbors…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely from around 8PM to just before sunrise. Low 37-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. High 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain, ending late. Low 40. High 49.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 30. High 45.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Low 25. High 40.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 43.

TUESDAY: AM rain showers. Variably cloudy. Low 34. High 43.

147 thoughts on “Warmer, Then Wetter, Then Windier”

  6. I’ll give the Almanc credit for calling for above normal temps which is about the only thing they nailed this winter.

  7. Pete Bouchard on his evening blog confidently declared no more below normal temps for the rest of the winter season. Maybe it is time for other cities and towns to put away their plows like the town of Foxboro did today according to Charlie. 🙁

    1. If he means winter as in “meteorological winter” which runs through next Wednesday, he may be right.

      If he means through March 21st or whatever, then it’s yet another unwise statement by an otherwise good meteorologist.

      1. Pete just said “for the rest of the season” so I get the impression he meant until the first day of spring on March 20th.

        “I feel confident declaring that now.”
        -Pete 😉

    2. Im not sure foxboro did but the 15 plows they usually leave there till end of March r back at there resting time till next Dec, a matter of fact on the way back today I saw a sweeping company start there spring sweeping, anyways if it doesn’t snow then they look like geniuses if it snows then there idiots, have a good night,

    3. I asked Pete B about no more arctic ait. He said he wondered whether there would be more but never said there would not be. That’s what both my husband and a friend in NH said they’d heard too

    2. Boston Observation at 8:54 this morning:

      Last Updated: Feb 22 2012, 8:54 am EST
      Wed, 22 Feb 2012 08:54:00 -0500
      Weather: Mostly Cloudy
      Temperature: 44.0 °F (6.7 °C)
      Dewpoint: 37.0 °F (2.8 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 76 %
      Wind: Southwest at 12.7 MPH (11 KT)
      Wind Chill: 38 F (3 C)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1006.0 mb
      Altimeter: 29.71 in Hg

      With virtually 100% sunshine, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if 60 is
      exceeded.

    1. Scott, did you look at the Euro for next Wednesday??
      No way temp will be below average if that even comes close
      to verifying. 🙂

      1. The link you posted was yesterdays run.

        here is today’s:
        http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ecmwf&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

        here is the GFS
        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120222%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_180_10m_wnd_precip.gif&fcast=180&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=02%2F22%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

        1. Wow! My Bad and my apologies. I went to the site
          and grabbed the 0Z run. NEVER checked the date!

          Site was awfully slow in getting today’s runs in there!

          🙂

  14. Next Wednesday’s run does look warm. But heck it’s Wednesday so it’s supposed to be warm! This said, there are some bright spots for those of us who cling to the notion that we’re still technically in winter: 1. I think north country will do fairly well this week in terms of snow. Better than what was anticipated earlier this week. Snow showers this morning (a measly inch of snow at Bretton Woods overnight, but, hey, that’s progress this winter), tonight, tomorrow morning, followed by heavier snow (and some mixed precipitation) Friday into Saturday. At least it’s not going to be an all-rain event. In fact, there really won’t be much rain up north. 2. Despite the Wednesday trend, I actually see some colder-than-average days ahead with some possibilities for snow around here. Don’t rule it out just yet. Surely, PB’s pronouncement last night that there wouldn’t be any days below normal for the rest of the season will not verify. In fact, even in the mildest of winters, such a statement would never verify. We’re talking a 4 week period. Even this winter, we’ve seen about 8 days of below normal temperatures, and probably about 14 at or below normal. That’s not much, granted. But still …

  15. Has anyone looked at the oz Euro for the Friday/Saturday storm? It basically forms a strong, slow moving coastal storm, moving NE from Virginia to near Cape Cod. It is much colder than the GFS and dumps significant snow for a good portion of VT, NH, and Maine. There is even some accumulating snow into Worcester County! Quite a different solution from the GFS.

    Regarding next Wed/Thurs, it doesn’t look that warm to me OS. At least, the 540 line in both the Euro and GFS are SE of New England. Both models develop a southern stream system around the same time but it looks right now like it wants to shoot out to sea south of us like the storm this past weekend did. Something to watch though….the GFS has had a storm around that period for several days now.

  16. With a positive NAO I can’t get excited for a big storm on the east coast.
    I think any wintry precipitation late week will be in the mountains of Northern New England. Its a rainorama for us along with gusty winds and I would not be surprised some areas of SNE reach wind advisory criteria.

    1. I think the Euro is a bit of an outlier and agree it is a rainorama for SNE regardless, but parts of VT, NH, and ME stand the chance to do really well for snow if it verifies.

      The positive NAO is not always the kiss of death. The October storm occurred during a positive NAO so it can happen!

      1. Agree, Mark. That was also my point above. I do think ski country does well this week and into the weekend, finally. I believe there’s also a High sitting over West Central Quebec. Certainly not a good place for a SNE storm, but not a bad spot for a NNE snowstorm. Just enough steering and marginally cold air to facilitate snow.

  17. At 10 am, generally 45F to 50F in the area and the visible satellite showing lots of sun locally for the next few hours.

  19. Latest Stellwagen Bouy Info:

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Feb 22 2012, 9:04 am EST
    Wed, 22 Feb 2012 09:04:00 -0500
    Temperature: 41.0 °F (5.0 °C)
    Wind: South at 11.2 MPH (9.72 KT)
    Wind Chill: 34 F (1 C)
    Visibility: 1.60 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1004.2 mb
    Water Temperature: 41.5 °F (5.3 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.7 m (2.30 ft)
    Dominant Period: 5 sec

    Looks like the water temp NEVER dipped below 40 the entire season. That is WELL
    above average. Should be slowly on the way up again now.

    With the ocean temp starting warmer, I wonder IF it will be a positive influence on
    our upcoming Spring weather? At least any East wind won’t be quite as cold as
    otherwise.

  20. I agree with the model analysis above………..But 🙂 ………..it’s 45F in Burlington, VT and looking northward into southern Canada, it’s in the 20s and 30s for several hundred miles until you arrive at a sharp contrast where it suddenly falls to 0F or below.

    So, though the storm track is trending more southerly, I think northern New England may still struggle to receive much snow from any of the next few systems. I don’t trust that enough cold air can get in ahead of these systems. Also, how many times have we seen this winter the models push cold air in just ahead of a storm and when all was said and done, the cold air came in after the storm’s passage.

    I do hope the northern areas do well, but when all is said and done by early next week, I’d think the lower elevations up north see mostly rain ending as a few inches of snow and maybe the elevated areas and mtns themselves getting several inches of snow. South of say, Lincoln NH or certainly Laconia, NH…I’d think very little or nothing.

    1. Thanks, Tom. You may be right. I’m hoping for my daughter’s sake. She loves cold and snow, like her father. She’s having a good time working up at Bretton Woods (great people at the AMC lodge), but keeps asking “where’s the snow?” I’m headed in that direction in March. Normally, I like to cross-country ski, but that’s been the biggest problem this year as the base is so eroded and meager. Maybe I’ll get lucky. We’ll see …

      1. It’s beautiful up there. We were up there in late November to go to Santa’s Village and the north country just looks and functions better with lots of winter snow. I can’t imagine what it must have looked like this winter without snow at times. We happened to be lucky on thanksgiving weekend as there was about 3 or so inches of snow on the ground from a prior event. It looked wonderful !

  21. I think its a tough call bc the EURO is trying to hold off the storm and slow it down, which would allow cold air to spill in for the VT/NH and Maine. I do think the northern mountains will do very well with this storm.

    1. Boston 11 AM report:

      Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
      (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W
      52.0 °F
      Last Updated: Feb 22 2012, 10:54 am EST
      Wed, 22 Feb 2012 10:54:00 -0500
      Weather: Partly Cloudy
      Temperature: 52.0 °F (11.1 °C)
      Dewpoint: 34.0 °F (1.1 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 50 %
      Wind: from the Southwest at 9.2 gusting to 18.4 MPH (8 gusting to 16 KT)
      Wind Chill: 49 F (9 C)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1004.6 mb
      Altimeter: 29.67 in Hg

      60 Looking Good. We shall see! 🙂

  25. Does it look like the EURO is trying to track 2 Low’s, one cutting through west of NE and the other going right over Boston? From what I can see, the 12Z GFS does not do this. It’s hard to believe the models show such different solutions just 2 days before.

    1. The Euro shows a primary coastal low forming over VA and riding it up the coast. The GFS is a more westerly track with eventual coastal redevelopment off Cape Cod. Bottom line is that with either solution, we get lots of rain and northern NE gets the wintery weather. They do better for snow with the Euro solution…I think the GFS is too warm, even in northern VT and NH, for a big snowstorm.

  26. Does anyone wanna make a friendly bet that Logan doesn’t see more than 3 inches for the remainder of winter? 🙂

    1. I believe we r in for above normal temps for both March and April, I think there will be some days that will remind you more of May than March or April but i think May will come in below average by as much as 5-7 degrees.

      1. Charlie,

        Just curious to what do you attribute this? Gut feeling? or
        are you basing it on something. Many thanks 🙂

        1. There is some gut but there is just as much as studying past weather maps and percentages of that scenerio happening, plus just listening to different weather euthiasist It make sense to me

  28. From NWS:

    THE
    ANTICIPATION IS FOR MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS TO FILTER THRU THE RGN
    THRU THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. WITH MODEST WARM-MOIST LLVL FLOW WITH
    H925 TEMPS +2C TO +4C DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY…LOOKING AT
    HIGHS AROUND THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S…ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
    NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR

    UM, Hmm….I think they MISSED! 🙂

    1. How so Old Salty? I’m guessing it’s different from the other models.

      Sorry, I have a hard time reading that map…lol.

  30. Well the 12Z GFS sure does look different now for the middle of next week. Our southern stream storm sliding south of us has turned into a great lakes cutter passing over Chicago with more warmth and rain for us ahead of it. Nice run to run consistency from the long range GFS as usual!

  32. Well it is winter not too far away….Currently on Mt Washington:
    Blowing Snow
    18 degrees
    Wind 61mph
    Wind Chill -6

    1. Just reading that makes me happy. … I’m pretty much a winter-crazed person. When there’s a heatwave in Boston in the middle of July (which is my least favorite weather) just to cool off I check the weather in places like Alert, Canada (near Santa) where it’s 34 in July.

      1. unlike you I love winter with the cold and snow. but in the summer bring on those heat waves long sunny days with a late evening thunderstorm 80 degrees or higher. beach days pool days. get it warm for may so i can go into the pool. i get out on may 21.My brothers will come home seeing me in the pool 🙂 or working on the patio . We are redoing our patio. this year. This lack of winter has let me already start. I also get my own peice of the garden space to plant 🙂 but i want some more ski trips. i guess i will just have to travel 2 or 3 hours. to stowe vt. they have winter . well sort of. they have less than a foot on the ground .

        1. Matt my husbands uncle built a home in Stowe area several decades ago. We spent a lot of time there and love it. I laughed out loud when you said your brothers will come home and see you in the pool.

      2. Joshua I am the same. Hot humid doesn’t bother me like it did and I seem to appreciate all of the seasons more but I really do miss the feel and look of a good winter storm.

  33. Thermometer says 55 in Walpole. Just passed the park and there tons of people out walking around with shorts and short sleeves. I don’t know if it’s just me but it doesn’t feel that warm. Maybe if we had a cold winter and this was the first 50+ degree day, it would feel warmer. Just feels like another 2012 winter day to me!

    1. AceMaster – I agree with you! I was out about 1/2 hr. ago and even in the sun it did not feel that warm to me, either. I don’t sense spring at all – granted, many people have seen signs of spring. But there are little mounds of snow in some areas of our yard, still. We do live in a wooded area, but still. It is 50 degrees in Sudbury right now and the sun has gone in for the moment.

      1. Agree. Yesterday in Boston did not feel like spring at all. In fact, it felt raw at times. Today is clearly warmer, but, this morning I did not feel any spring warmth. I’m sure it’s different now as I gaze outside.

  34. Just got in the office from being outside for lunch. Car thermometer registered
    57 degrees in Roxbury. Noticed tufts of fresh GREEN grass coming through.

    The Winter that Wasn’t! Amazing. 🙂

  35. Hey Mark, the Candian might not be an outlier after all. Looks like the 12Z EURO comes closer to that scenerio, weaker and less organized. Still some rain here with maybe a couple inches at best for NNE from what I can see. Could the mighty EURO also be an outlier?

      1. Hey, I hope it verifies or something close to it. 🙂 I just think that this far out, chances are slim to none. We’ll keep on watching though.

    2. 2 glaring problems I see with that Euro…

      1) Clearly no phasing of the polar & subtropical jet streams which immediately makes me think that track is too far north and the low too strong on the run.

      2) Even IF it were to verify close to that, the fact no polar jet phasing is taking place there will likely be far too little cold air in place or even generated to do much of anything, snow-wise, at least near the coast.

  38. Looks like High temp at Logan was 56 at 2PM, 3PM obs back down to 55.
    Perhaps it made it to 57 shortly after 2PM? Close, but no cigar. 🙂

  39. 55.6 still in Framingham – had series of dark clouds pass through with some wind but sunny again. It didn’t feel like spring to me yesterday either. I got steaks to cook on the grill but it was chilly sitting on the deck – however, it’s near end of Feb and it was 6:30 at night so fact that I could sit out for 15 minutes not bad. Feels warmer today so my plan is unless temp drops drastically or rain arrives to light fire in firepit and enjoy the fresh air.

  42. Just did something weird. I took the last 186 hourly temperature observations from the NWS obs at Logan and averaged them. Interesting that it came out to: 39.02

    Now to be fair, very occasionally there was a duplicate obervation.

    To the best of my ability, I removed all the duplicates (3 total) and the average
    then came out to 39.01.

    That is incredibly HIGH for this time of year. That takes into account obs
    in the middle of the night and early AM. They are all factored in.

    I just found it interesting.

    2. I may be a bit off, but if we take ave high=39 and low=25, then average
      for this period should be about 32. That makes it about 7 degrees above normal daily for the period! 🙂

    1. I could not begin to answe but think the answers with the diagram would be a great reaching tool. I’ll watch for answers. Thanks old salty

    2. 1 ii. between 5400 line-5640 lines key sppot between 4660 to 5640
      1iv Northwest wind
      2a areas of high pressure with very cold air pushes the het stream south also needs to follow areas of greatest temperature differerences in order to get a good healthy wind.
      2B L smaller temperature differential.
      2C i am just guessing but some kind of obstacle
      3a THe front moves the cold air from the higher levels of the atmosphere down to the surface.
      3c the thunderstorms creating the tornado and the tornado are so small that the coriolis effect does not effect the roation of the storm
      please tell me if i am wrong.

  44. Well success. Just came in from an hour on the deck by the fire. It was nice by fire but feels chillier than the 55 deg temp. I thought when we were at beach in jan than 55 felt warmer. Maybe more moisture being by water. ??

    1. I think the chill today came for 2 reasons. One was the clouds, which didn’t always let the sun shine brightly and the other was the dew points which crashed from the upper 30s this morning to the low 20s by afternoon. Strangely enough, I think tonight feels milder than it felt compared to most of the day.

  45. a current temp of 48 feels like 44 degrees wind coming from the southwest at about 10 mph. recorded a high of 54
    marshland weatherstation currently 40 winds coming from west winds of about 8 mph the temp has been with in 38 to 40 today
    water level 0 inches
    I say its been one of the driest streatches of winter i have seen. in a while. which is going to end later this week.

  46. From HM:
    Remember, 2006 was a weak La Nina year that become an El Nino by Spring. NYC had 26 inches of snow on Feb 12th.

  53. A little wintry precipitation for parts of the interior before a change to rain. The areas that do see snow MINOR accumulations but this is mostly a rainorama.

  61. Noticed the leaves on my iris’ poking up a few inches yesterday, but they’re not looking too healthy! A Brownish/green color leads me to believe they’re underwatered? Will give them a drink, but I sure hope this isn’t any indication of what’s to come for our spring plants.

    1. My daffodils are starting to show the flower bud and they look great – hopefully the rain will help yours

      I notice my mountain laurels and honeysuckle look a whole lot better than they did last year too

      1. I’m also thinking it’s too early in the season for iris’ to be showing, so that could be half the problem. As for my azelea bushes, they look fab with lots of new growth. Honestly, my spring plants look like the calendar should be reading early April and not late Feb!

        1. It depends on where mine are. I have forsythia both sides of house. South side is budding and absolutely nothing on north side. I’ll have to take a walk around and see what else is showing this weekend.

  63. Can’t complain too much. While it’s mild, it’s not as mild as some thought it would be, and the trend in the models and forecasts I’ve seen is suggesting a muted winter comeback. Certainly the rain that was forecast to hit the mountains this week and weekend has not materialized. The opposite has occurred. Bretton Woods received another whole inch of snow last night, and they’re expecting over 4 inches tomorrow, with more overnight into Saturday, and much colder temperatures than were predicted as recently as yesterday. At least some return to normalcy, in my view.

      1. Thanks Tom – I’m having a blast with it. My favorite part is seeing the wind speed. I know I’ve said a million times how I love wind.

  66. I see a good amount of rain coming through tonight/Friday, maybe an inch of rain in spots espsouth of pike

  67. GFS for next week has something as well.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120223%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_183_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=183&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=02%2F23%2F2012+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=94&nextImage=yes

  69. If this morning’s 0z GFS run is correct, the next low travels up over Cleveland and then heads up towards Burlington, VT………..Its fairly warm in all of New England and into southeastern Canada……….. I’m just struggling to see this snow potential of 1-3 or 2-4 inches in the southern areas of VT and Southwest NH later tonight.

      1. I guess I just disagree with this. Once the storm passes and the surface winds switch to NW, which generates lift as the air rises up the mtns, I think there’ll be moisture left to be lifted and that the higher mtns will receive some snow…….But, on the front end of this storm, I think it will end up being a milder scenario where these snowfall criteria associated with a winter storm watch will not be met.

    2. Southern areas, yes, you’re right. They’ll be hard pressed to have accumulating snow. Northern (and even some Central) areas will, however, be getting a good dose of snow. We’re at a point where temps in the Boston area are diverging a lot from places as `close’ as 100-150 miles north – 20 degree differential sometimes. I would be surprised if the temps in the mountains, even at lower elevations, got out of the 20s tomorrow.

      1. I hope your correct !! That would be great for their local economy, as I’d assume there’s a lot of skiers up there given the school vacation week.

        1. That would benefit the Massachusetts families that are up there this weekend. I believe New Hampshire school vacation is next week which would also be beneficial. Though I could have that wrong.

        2. I’ll probably wind up being wrong, but the positioning of the primary low is more favorable than it was even yesterday for snow up north. There’s not a lot of cold to work with, but it’s marginally sufficient for snow. Mixing will occur, too, which will cut down on amounts. But, I do see over 4 inches tomorrow from this system over a widespread area, and more fluffier accumulating snow showers Friday night into Saturday. Vermont will likely get more out of this than Maine and NH.

          1. Is 4” the threshold for winter storm criteria up there? If not then I tend to agree that I don’t think even in central and northern areas of VT get over 4”. Not due to the temps and position of the low, but due to lack of QPF. Not basing that on much, lol, but i just have a gut feeling this thing will not deliver as much QPF. The deepening low forecasted a couple days ago just isnt there.

              1. Thanks Mark! Looks like Killington is in the 6-8” range where I’m going starting this sat. I hope this forecast holds! Interesting note at the top of that page about a watch issued with a 50% or greater confidence in the forecast. I never knew that. The way this winter has gone, a 50-50 shot usually ends up on the losing end.

  71. It looks like those rainshowers intensified as they passed off of Boston……and now there’s a pretty good shower around the Worcester area.

  72. TK, hope you feel better soon!

    It is 49 degrees in Sudbury. It feels cool but rather damp out. The sky is rather pretty in a kind of weird way. Filtered sun through high clouds. Gives a feeling of not winter but not spring. Should we create a new season name for this past so-called winter? 🙂

    1. sprinter? wing?

      Hi Rainshine – the sky is odd today isn’t it. Fun to watch. I love that my desk sits in a window and I can look out while I work 🙂

  73. TK – please don’t worry about an update. As we’ve said a million times, we are pretty self sufficient for a bunch of kids 🙂 🙂

    Just take care of you. There is a lot going around from a cold-type virus to noro.

  74. Does anyone know how the snow tool on the wunderground Euro works? I’m sure there are many calculations and variables that go into it. I believe the 00z Euro actually shows our area receiving snow, up to 1-2” but I’m pretty sure there’s no chance of that happening, at least south of the pike.

    1. To answer your question, I can’t be sure, but some how it has a complicated algorithm in the model that computes an estimated snow amount. It is represented graphically with different colors for different accumulations for
      a 3 hour interval (same as the frames)

      And you are correct, it is showing snow even for Boston for this event???? I don’t get that??? 🙂

      1. That is before the 850MB temps warm and switch it over.
        I just don’t see this happening at all. We’ll see what the 12Z run
        has to say. 🙂

  75. 12Z GFS has Changed the system for next week to an INSIDE RUNER, although
    it is much less potent than the 06Z portrayal. Also, tomorrow’s event has 850MB temps cold enough for snow at onset, but it warms. I think boundary layer will be
    far too warm to support snow at onset. 🙂

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