Wednesday May 18 2022 Forecast (7:44AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)

High pressure builds toward the region today with dry, bright, breezy weather. The high moves right across our area this evening when we’ll finally have lost the breeze and clouds start to move in ahead of an approaching warm front. This front will take its time moving through the region on Thursday, so expect a generally cloudy day, but most of the rain with the warm front will be on the light side and occur in the morning. Friday warms up behind this front, and then with stronger high pressure offshore and a cold front hanging off to the northwest we will have a taste of summer Saturday into Sunday before that front swings through at some point on Sunday, with a shower and thunderstorm threat, breaking the brief hot spell by the end of the weekend.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of light rain overnight. Lows 51-58. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through midday with periods of rain. Mostly cloudy thereafter. Highs 57-64. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)

A shot of cooler/dry air May 23. Wave of low pressure brings a chance of rain May 24. Variable weather with a boundary nearby, in and out of clouds with a few shower threats May 25-27.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

Overall pattern dry, zonal flow, but brief wet weather threats with air mass changes. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal.

43 thoughts on “Wednesday May 18 2022 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK
    Not liking the looks of Saturday and Sunday.

    Any chance wind will have enough Southerly component to hold the temperature down just a bit. Say to the upper 80s instead
    of low 90s? Thanks

    1. Thanks, Captain. I remember that. My daughter has a pic of teo orioles at our feeder as snow fell.

  13. Sure will be different this summer at the Hospital now that I’m inside in the air conditioner. Love being back on days . Coming back in tonight at 11 for a double shift .

  14. Do I detect a pattern establishing itself here?

    1. Mostly dry.

    2. Brief 1 to 2 day `hot’ spells followed by cool-downs with a few showers, then mostly tranquil for several days, and subsequent building `heat’ as warm front approaches – rinse and repeat.

    3. Relatively warmer temperature profile north than south.

    1. I think this is an excellent synopsis of the recent and current pattern.

      It will be interesting to see if it maintains another few to several weeks.

  15. I see TK notes it in his discussion and I agree with him.

    I’m not too impressed with the rain potential tomorrow.

    I think the heaviest rain slides, east-southeastward, moving just south of us.

  17. Today is a spring gem. I mean spectacular. The rain Monday evening gave the vegetation just enough to provide it with a boost. The lilacs are in full bloom along the Charles. The air is clean and refreshing. On my walk I saw goslings and ducklings, painted turtles, a muskrat, a heron, a swan pair nesting, many red-wing blackbirds, a cat bird, and a blue jay.

    2. I so love being able to smell the lilacs now and not have my eyes turn into 2 itchy basketballs while I sniffle & sneeze. When I was little, lilacs were a no-go.

    1. both models drop the dew points Sunday afternoon and appear to turn the sfc flow more westerly, though light.

      True downsloping, lowering RH and dry ground. If Full sun, nearing solstice max altitude sun angle, I won’t be surprised by nearing 100F.

      This depends on the cold front hanging back and the ridge maintaining into Sunday.

      If the ridge breaks down quicker and the cold front can speed up to early morning, then obviously a lot cooler.

    1. It may not be his last though because with him staying on for special assignments, he may contribute to future long range outlooks. 🙂

  20. The GFS finally lost the imaginary tropical cyclone during the last few runs. Instead it develops something down in the western Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico area much later in the period (in early June), develops it slowly and much more weak than it was depicting the imaginicane.

  21. If it goes going to be hot this weekend we may as well set a record. From Ryan Hanrahan
    The all-time May record high of 99F For Bradley Airport is in jeopardy on Saturday. Extremely warm weather for the weekend moving in!

  22. To me most years we seem to get a blast of heat and humidity a week to a week and half prior to Memorial Day weekend. I am wondering if we break the heat with a bang from Mother Nature later in the day on Sunday.

        2. I dunno ….. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          I’ve camped 20 of the past 22 Memorial Day Weekends in Myles Standish and it feels like its either rained or been really chilly, at least 1 of the days, for most of the 22 years.

          Last year was the crown jewel of them all with 5 inches of rain and I don’t think the temp got above 50F.

          1. This is the same principle as the “it always snows on MLK Weekend” … Here in the Northeast, you’ll almost never go a 3-day period without some threat of precipitation. It’s just because of where we live. The weather doesn’t “know” what day / date it is.

  23. According to Dr. Judah Cohen, this summer is likely going to be quite hot, and the position of the Bermuda high will determine our vulnerability to tropical systems.

    Also, 9 of the past 12 summers in Boston have been ABOVE normal.

    🙁

    1. The recorded that on the roof of the studio with the beautiful back drop of heavy traffic on I-95 behind them. 😉

      The climate models don’t agree with his forecast, and I’m not sure I do either, at least completely.

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