Thursday May 19 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)

45 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)

Big weather changes will take place over the next few days from a cool and damp day today to the full feel of mid summer for the weekend before we break the 2-day hot spell by Monday. How do we get from here to there? Today, a warm front will approach from the southwest with a cool air mass in place, overrunning taking place and producing some rainfall, especially this morning and midday. The front won’t really pass by us at all today so we’ll keep the clouds around even after the rain exits, but there is the chance of another shower later in the day or early this evening as another quick-moving disturbance moves by at upper levels. While we work drier air into the region at mid and upper levels we’ll clear out by early Friday, but that day while warmer won’t introduce us to the summer heat quite yet, as the actual frontal boundary will take its time and won’t really get by the region until sometime at night, at which time one more disturbance may bring a renegade batch of showers or even thunderstorms to the region. After that, the heat is on for the weekend, and with high pressure centered to the south of our area supplying it, the humidity levels will also increase. With a lot of outdoor activities that go on at this time of year on weekends, anybody planning on being outside for any length of time will have to prepare for it with the use of sun screen and especially staying hydrated! We’ve talked about a cold front putting an end to the short-lived hot spell, and that will happen, but the front’s timing looks late enough for Sunday to be a fully hot day and a shower/thunderstorm threat holding off til evening or even sometime at night to early Monday, before we bring in a drier and cooler air mass for the start of next week.

TODAY: Cloudy through midday with periods of rain. Mostly cloudy thereafter with just a chance of a passing shower. Highs 57-64. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible early. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Early clouds and possible patchy fog, then mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 some eastern beaches and near the South Coast except 73-80 immediate South Coast and Cape Cod. More humid – dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 63-70. Humid – dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 90-97, cooler shoreline especially South Coast. Humid – dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Humid – dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a shower early. Highs 75-82. Less humid. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)

This 5-day period will be a little more unsettled as the frontal boundary that goes by will be nearby and we’ll have some disturbances moving along it and a bit of a battle between warm to hot weather to our south and Canadian coolness.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Overall pattern dry, zonal flow, but brief wet weather threats with air mass changes. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal.

45 thoughts on “Thursday May 19 2022 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    NOT liking forecast for Weekend. Not your forecast but THE forecast.

    The big 3 models all predict that aforementioned heat.

    Last night Harvey expected high temperature records to
    be broken all over New England. We don’t need that.

    ACs going in tomorrow. Can’t get to it today. 🙂

    1. I expect to be turning AC on this weekend also. Common sense would have had me doing it already since my allergies seem to make me just want to sleep. But, like you and Mrs OS, I love fresh air in the house.

  5. Judah is very confident this will be a Warmer then normal summer . I’ll be glad when the heat of this weekend is over . Not because of the heat but the hype by the tv news stations regarding it . So it’s going to be hot , oh my what will we do .

    1. However I sincerely feel for the folks who do not tolerate the heat like Mrs old salty

  6. You’ll notice this morning’s rainfall will look more impressive on radar than what falls to the surface.

    You can blame the desert dry dew point leading up to this. Chomp chomp!!

    1. Makes sense. It is just more of that same old of late. Very little in the bucket after a day of drizzle and raw. 0.08 here so far.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    I do hope Judah is wrong about the summer. He’s often wrong about the winter. So, we shall see.

    1. I believe Dr.Judah was mostly correct about this past winter, especially snowfall. If I remember correctly, he predicted Boston would get around 50 inches (54.0”). Can’t do much better than that.

      He seems to have a better grasp on forecasting summers.

  9. the 12z NAMS both have lower 90s this weekend, however, they both have dps around 70F.

    I like the GFS and how its lowering Sunday’s dewpoints into the mid 50s, while projecting upper 90s in the Merrimack Valley and southern NH

    I think given the below average ground moisture and a more westerly wind component Sunday, the GFS projection seems more reasonable.

    I think Sunday’s heat will feel more like southwestern US heat and not the truly brutal, oppressive eastern US heat with tons of humidity.

    1. Hot is hot. Having been to Las Vegas several times in the summer, I can tell you that the 108 degree temperatures we experienced was absolutely brutal! Humidity or not.

      2. I visited Las Vegas many years ago and I found that 105 degrees with a dew point of 40 was much more tolerable than 85 and a dew point of 70. Personally I’d rather be in the 105 temps with a 40 dew point. That’s just me though. Big difference imo.

        1. Sorry, but I totally and completely disagree. I guess it depends upon the person. 🙂

          I’ll take 85 with dp 70 over 105 with dp 40 any day of the week. 🙂

  11. 12z GFS hinting at a light mid afternoon seabreeze both weekend days at Logan.

    But, as I move the cursor a few miles inland, the temps skyrocket into the 90s.

    2. Why does that not surprise me.

      I can see it being 92, 93 at my house and 79-85 at the airport. 🙂

  12. That heat spike this weekend will be significant but certainly not unprecedented for most of the area. One or two locations may challenge all time record highs for May but most will not. A few daily records may go down, most will hold up.

    We have an impressively cool airmass on the way for 1 or 2 days next week, so we’ll be doing a little bit of see-saw in the days ahead. Again, not really unusual for spring in New England.

    I’ve heard many people referring to the current season as summer already (not here on the blog, just in daily dealings). This seems to be a thing now. Summer begins in June. It’s still spring, no matter how high the temp gets this weekend. Fact.

  13. Warm front wants to keep producing some showers – albeit light ones in general. At least it will knock out a little pollen for a handful of hours where it occurs. 🙂

    1. Thanks! Love that song by Power Station. Two albums but most people only know the first one…

  15. If you hear anybody referring to the upcoming hot spell as a “heatwave”, that is incorrect and feel free to correct it.

    A heatwave is THREE OR MORE DAYS of 90+. We will have 2 for many locations. No locations will have three. This will be a two-day hot spell, not a heatwave. Going to make sure we’re getting these things right, not that we have that issue here on WHW. Y’all are a smart lot!

      2. That is completely fair!

        I get cranky sometimes when carefully crafted definitions are misused.

        I like heatripple. That’s a good one. 😉

    2. fwiw,
      with proper mixing and sunshine,
      24C could produce surface temps of near 103. NOT that it will happen, but 850 temps of 24c are very rare around these parts.

    1. cap is the key. I wonder with a sea breeze with the high dew points and this eml, IF something breaks the cap near the sea breeze boundary?
      Just a thought.

  18. Starting the day out at 54 degrees here in JP. Dark and gloomy out. No Rain and No rain overnight or if it rained it was so little it has long since dried up.

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