Saturday May 21 2022 Forecast (9:21AM)

109 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)

Today we are going to get an example of how a little mesoscale feature, not forecast that far in advance by guidance, can impact the weather fairly significantly – in this case, delaying sunshine and heat by several hours and as a result impacting the sensible weather for the entire day. Only 2 1/2 days ago a meso-scale batch of showers and thunderstorms originated in the Colorado area and has since made its way steadily eastward, passing across far southern New England (mostly just offshore) late last night. The departure of this feature, which produced showers as far north as the MA/NH border and a few heavier showers and thunderstorms closer to the South Coast (with big t-storms offshore), has left us with a delayed warm frontal passage, only across about 1/2 the region as of sunrise, and lots of cloudiness, dampness, and even areas of fog. As the hotter air mass works its way in from the west and southwest, we will see an erosion and departure of this cloudiness and eventually the light and variable wind, even from the north and northeast in some areas, will become more southwesterly. Some East Coast beaches may never fully realize the southwesterly breeze until sometime tonight though, and that will keep temperatures down there, as well as along the South Coast where a southwesterly wind is already coming off cooler water anyway. So we don’t just blast into the heat today – it will be a slow process, especially the further east or nearer the coast one lives, where the 90 degree temperatures may have only existed in a forecast heard in the last few days. Once we get to tomorrow though, we’re in it. Full southwesterly air flow everywhere, and only where that wind comes off water will there be a modifying influence, so there will be parts of southern New England that stay below 90 again, but this should come as no surprise in late May, when our surrounding waters are cold enough to pain the ankles of those who venture in too quickly. (And speaking of, if you do beach it, beware of that chilly water and limit your immersion. It is dangerous if you try to swim in water that’s too cold.) We’ll be watching the approach of a cold front later Sunday, which will generate some strong to severe thunderstorms west and north of the WHW forecast area, but the timing of that front appears too late to bring the heavy duty stuff into our region, only remnant showers and embedded weakening storms Sunday evening and night. Ironically, the best instability in our atmosphere occurs today, but most of the atmosphere doesn’t cooperate and storms will never be realized. Tomorrow, however, we may see a couple isolated cells pop up ahead of any cold frontal activity – air mass storms in the heat of the day. Though most will not see that. Regardless, the cold front that arrives Sunday night puts an end to our brief early-season heat, and we’re right back to near seasonable air for Monday. We’ll have at least partial but not maybe complete clearing, as the frontal boundary will be a bit sluggish on departure, and a few rain showers may skirt the South Coast region because of that. But for the most part, Monday will be a rain-free day with much lower humidity than we’ll have Sunday. Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s weather will be governed by high pressure, the center of which will be north of our region Tuesday, which will be a fairly cool and breezy day. The center of the high slips a bit south and weakens by Wednesday, which will still have a broad scale onshore flow, but more southeasterly, and less brisk. Just don’t let this weekend’s burst of heat make you think summer is here to stay. It’s still very much springtime here in southeastern New England…

TODAY: Through mid morning – clouds and areas of fog, even patchy drizzle especially near the coast. Midday – decreasing clouds from west to east. Remainder of day – sunny. Increasingly humid – dew point rising into 60s. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod / South Coast, 82-89 just inland from South Coast as well as immediate East Coast, 89-96 inland, hottest over interior valleys. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH from west to east.

TONIGHT: Clear except patchy ground fog. Lows 63-70. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod / South Coast, 83-90 just inland from South Coast and portions of immediate North Shore & South Shore, 91-98 elsewhere with hottest interior valleys. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but some localized weak sea breezes on eastern shores.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Humid – dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Passing showers possible South Coast / Cape Cod. Highs 75-82. Less humid. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 49-56. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)

High pressure slips to the south and our air flow turns more southerly May 26 with some more cloudiness, then add in the chance of showers for May 27 as a disturbance and frontal system move through from west to east. Based on current timing, Memorial Day Weekend May 28-30 looks dry with high pressure in control, along with seasonably to slightly warmer than normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

End May / early June looking like weak zonal flow pattern with minor disturbances. Overall regime is seasonable temperatures and drier than average weather.

109 thoughts on “Saturday May 21 2022 Forecast (9:21AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I really don’t think Logan sees 90 today, I really don’t
    If it does, it will be like 5 or 6 PM. 🙂

    12 HRRR temp forecast for 18Z or 2PM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct&rh=2022052112&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    4PM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct&rh=2022052112&fh=8&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    5PM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct&rh=2022052112&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    6PM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct&rh=2022052112&fh=10&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    This model run has the marine effect INCREASING during the afternoon with coastal temps falling into the 50s!!!!

    Hover your mouse along coastal areas, especially Boston and north shore areas.

  3. Thanks TK. Was hoping for the blast of heat today as it was going to be short lived anyway.

    1. Hi Hadi. Nice to see you here.

      Doesn’t look like it today, does it. We shall see. 🙂

  4. I installed 2 ACs yesterday because I thought it would be 2 days of 90s. NOT looking like it now and I think I didn’t have to do that. I wasn’t going to until we saw an Eric’s 6Pm Broadcast. He wasn’t backing off from the heat even though I saw signs that the marine influence might hold all day in Boston.

    Now we wait and see which way it will go. My experience
    says Logan never gets out of 70s and will drop to 60s or lower.
    That East wind was COLD yesterday even here in JP. We only
    made it to 69 and dropped back to 63 in the middle of the afternoon.

    I will be most interested to see how it shacks out today.

    I am NOT talking about inland, just within 10 miles or so of
    the coast.

    We shall see.

  5. Currently 63 at Logan with ENE wind and 64 here in JP.

    I had out shorts for today, but had to put on jeans instead. 🙂

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Still noticeable marine layer in Back Bay. And yet I see a ridiculous warning on my computer – where there’s a weather icon – that says “heat wave.” First, this was never going to be a heat wave, if we define the latter as 3 days or more of 90F plus. Second, we won’t even make it to 80F, let alone 90F today in Boston (unless there’s a dramatic change this afternoon).

  14. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    Some mid-level debris is moving eastward. I’d guesstimate 12:30-1pm for when the sun appears, even into Boston’s suburbs.

    Judging by the mt Washington auto road temp profile, there’s probably a layer around 3,000 ft above us where it’s 70F+.

    When the sun comes out, the temps will really jump. Sure, Logan and the beaches might struggle to 70F, but I still think upper 80s plus just a few miles inland by mid-late afternoon. And 90F+ 10-15 miles inland by mid-late afternoon.

  15. 70 with a 64 DP in SE Sutton. Solid cloud cover

    The one room I had the window cracked in might have had a 80 DP before I closed the window. So far fans are working well.

  17. Currently 84 in North Adams, so the heat is certainly building out that way.

    This is a very crude approximation of where the front is now.
    Weird configuration, but look at the temperatures, they don’t lie.

    https://ibb.co/PQwQT39

    1. Another observation…
      Worcester airport at 1,000 ft elevation appears to be
      nudging into the warmer air, while lower levels are stuck
      in the muck.

  18. Sun and filtered blue sky here. Local wunder stations have 70-72 here with 66 DP. I think my sensor may be reading high. I’m testing now.

    1. My sensor is in line with the Worcester airport. At least two of the lower readings of 69 in this area are cooler spots. One is by a large body of water and another in a heavily wooded area.

  19. On a baseball note, I’ve been following Nolan Gorman for a couple of years. I was hoping the Sox would pick him up. The Cardinals got him first. He singled last night in his first major league at bat.

  21. Thanks TK and hope you had a great birthday yesterday!

    Took until about 15 min ago for the clouds to finally burn off here in Coventry CT. Temp has jumped to 77 with a light breeze. It’s perfect outside….at the moment.

  24. up to 71 here in JP, meanwhile still only 64 at the airport.

    The Mayor of Boston posted a Heat Emergency for today and tomorrow. Our office sent out a rob call about the heat
    emergency to our elderly clients yesterday.

    NOT a good look right about now.

      1. This is the newest fad. Drive into a tornado, or let one “drive” into you. Maybe it’s a TikTok challenge.

        I’m kidding of course but……maybe I’m not?

  26. Just simply NOT impressed with the “HEAT”, not just near the coast but all the way back to NY state and PA. Just not!

    2. It’s actually behaving as expected. The heat wasn’t expected to really arrive until this afternoon. Tomorrow’s the hottest day.

      And many media may have made it sound like end-of-the-world heat. I’m not sure, I’m assuming because that’s what they usually do, and I haven’t watched or listened to all that much “media” this week. But if they acted as usual, the expectations were set rather high. It gets hot in May sometimes – nothing new. In fact, some of the records go way, WAY back.

    1. A friend of mine was bummin’ he couldn’t go. He has plans to go soon but not sure if they will have anything left to ski on!

      Of course the temp is hardly pushing 90 there, currently at 69. But they will be quite warm this afternoon.

      1. Not yet anyway but that 69 on their website is an outdated reading. Other outlets are showing Killington at 80-81 now at the base.

        They made a tremendous amount of snow on that trail to the tune of 25-30 feet. They are planning to open again for Memorial Day weekend next week but we’ll see how they get through the next couple days. My guess is they will make it but some walking will be required to get on and off the lift

        1. Nearest official station was 70 at noon, so it was a bit old, but no doubt it’s going up fast now.

    1. It was only a matter of time. I just had someone ask me where the 98 degrees was that “they” said we were having today. Don’t worry, I explained it well to them. 🙂

    2. I think with it being in the upper 70’s here, we don’t hit 90. Thinking 86-88 between 3-4pm before they start going back down.

    1. Only upcoming yard work I have is a mowing, but it can wait until midweek. 🙂

    2. Son in law got the lawn and edging done and cut back a bush. We are having a horrific time with ticks this year. The service we had was coming back and we wanted lawn mowed first.

      I’m seeing a thin layer of clouds to the south. Do you have blue sky now, Mark?

      1. Ticks are nasty. I do a careful check even after I’ve just walked in the neighborhood. We’re in a semi-long-term tick population spike. I wouldn’t mind if that reversed itself soon.

        1. About the same here. That must be a thin line of very light clouds I see just south of here.

          Up to 89 here

  34. Not including North Adams erroneous temp sensor, nowhere in southern New England is 90 or higher yet, but it won’t be long. The high temp ranges on the forecast above should be realized by 6PM.

      1. Thank you. It should be getting there in most of central MA about now, or by 4PM.

  37. Interesting

    88 Here in JP while 5 or 6 miles away at the state’s arm pit,
    it is 64 with an ENE wind at 12 mph. Wow!!!!

  39. I moved the temp sensor and it is now spot on.

    SE Sutton is 91 bordering on 92 with 67 DP.

  40. Today, we are getting a great example of what the contrast of SPRING temperatures can be in our region.

  41. I expected to come home from work to a virtual “sauna”. My house is even more refreshing than when I left it early this morning. 🙂

    If this is what an early preview to “summer” is like, I’ll take it every day of the week. 😉

    1. Nope, but this is the result of the delay on the arrival of heat to the coastal areas as first suggested yesterday. 😉

      1. Not at all uncommon on the shore. The east wind is natures AC.

        Sighhhhhhh I miss Humarock 🙁

  43. High temperature in Back Bay today was registered at around 3:30pm … 73F. It is now 67F.

    1. Though there have been clouds most of the day the sun has been out, too but there’s a distinct marine layer. Feels like natural AC as you walk around. It’s weird. Strong sun and yet a marine layer of air that cools things off considerably.

    2. Yup. Amazing!!!
      I could just feel this shaping up yesterday and I am pissed that out of caution I installed the ACs. Now we are down 2 windows that could be fully open NOW!!!

  44. Down to 78 here in JP as the East wind has taken firm control after reaching a high of 89. Is this truly a sea breeze OR do we have a BD taking shape?

    Did NOT need to install acs yesterday AND I would NOT install them for 1 day of heat, so I have been bamboozled

    Yet, I was fully aware of this possibility..

    1. My temp has pretty much tracked with the airport, though right now Logan is cooler than where I am.

      Today has a Bay Area feel. Within a 10 miles radius tremendous differences in temperature and even weather type – fog, clouds, sun.

  45. Hit 90º a little while ago. Backed off to 87º in the backyard now in Taunton.

  49. Our dragonflies …,still young and small..,have reported for guard duty. We have well over a dozen maneuvering for the area they will fly back and forth over for their mosquito dinner

  50. At 5pm, BDL hit 90 with a dewpoint of 68 and heat index of 94. I believe that was the high temp for the afternoon. Nowhere near the upper 90s that most outlets here were projecting the past few days and not sure the heat advisory ultimately was even warranted? The clouds not burning off till noon definitely hindered the temperature rise.

  51. Wind around to SSW in Marshfield last 10 minutes. We were in the 60s and I’m guessing we just jumped to around 80F. Warmest of the day for sure.

    1. Now 64.8F.

      All in all, today was a very comfortable day. It’s humid, but that marine layer acted as a natural AC of sorts. I’m fairly close to the coast. I’m sure that a few more miles inland it got over 80F.

      1. Joshua – I’m guessing that your Sticky-Door Heat & Humidity Detector (so important last summer) isn’t registering anything yet.

        1. Ha. I was testing mine yesterday to see if the cat could still push the doors open without using an elastic on the two knobs. But it is just starting to stick ….not enough to stop using the elastic.

  52. No record high temperature at Windsor Locks CT today. The record of 93 stands. Just two days ago there was talk that all time record high for May of 99 could be challenged. It wasn’t even close today.

    1. 1921 was in interesting year. It had that record high in May. It also had `biblical’ rains in July, similar to ours last July but worse.

    1. I do think Logan does get there this time. The wind will be the right direction.

  55. When you had the coolest forecast temp for Logan and you still miss it by more than 10 degrees – same day. That’s when you know it was a hard-core bust. 😉

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