Monday May 23 2022 Forecast (7:33AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

We’ve made it through the mini spell of heat, which wasn’t much of a hot spell for the coast until a few hours on Sunday. In fact, the location that represents Boston never made it to 90. We know they stayed well below that at 71 for a high Saturday, and yesterday they fell short by 1, topping out at 89. The showers and thunderstorms behaved about as expected yesterday, with the isolated activity during the afternoon, even a strong storm southwest of the city, and then the weakening activity with the front last night. Now that cold front has gone through and we’re in a new, refreshing air mass from Canada. High pressure will build north of our region over the next few days and supply is with fair and dry weather with cooler air as well. We won’t be totally sunny each day as the front sits just to the south and some waves of low pressure will be moving along it, but my current thought is that any rain will remain south of New England. Kind of a shame, because we need it. Our next shot at unsettled weather comes later Thursday and Friday as high pressure slips offshore and low pressure passes northwest of us, bringing its warm front through later Thursday and then its cold front during Friday. We’ll fine-tune those details during the week.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72, coolest east-facing shores. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers by late in the day. Highs 65-72. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. More humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

Memorial Day Weekend (May 28-30) has a forecasting dilemma. Today’s medium range guidance is rather split, with 2 major models now showing unsettled weather for at least part of the weekend, and a third model painting a totally different picture with a generally dry weekend. For the moment I’m leaning toward a delay to the onset of dry weather with possible unsettled weather on the Saturday, then improvement thereafter, but this is low confidence and another thing to work out as we get closer. End May / early June should feature fair and seasonably mild weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

Early June pattern looks like it wants to be somewhere between weak zonal flow and weak omega blocking with us on the drier side of the pattern overall, along with mostly seasonable temperatures.

33 thoughts on “Monday May 23 2022 Forecast (7:33AM)”

      1. A tad warmer please. At this time of May, I’d prefer
        75-80. 🙂 I know that’s NOT what I am going to get most
        of the time. 🙂

  10. Today, going forward is probably when the GFS will stop changing its tune on Memorial Day Weekend. This is the projection that will solidify. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. HA HA HA. AS EXPECTED!!! Even though NOT all Memorial
      Day Weekends have lousy weather, just THIS ONE!_(@*#(*(_*!_@#(_!@(#!(@#_!(@#!__#!_*!@()#*)(!*@#()!*@)#(*!)(@#*)(!*@#)(!*@)(#*!)(@*#)(!*@#()!*@#()*!)(@#*)(!*@#()*!@#(*!)(#@*!)(@*#)(!*@#)(!*@#)(*!)(@#*)!(@*#)(!*@#*!@)#(*!)(*@#)(!*@#(

      Will it be wrong? I DOUBT IT!!!!

      1. Yup.

        Eric F also posted a tweet about it recently and he said about the same as you did, well …… without all the symbols, LOL !!!!

  12. Thank you, TK.

    So, the unofficial start of summer will likely be cloudy, drizzly, and in the 50s. Ah yes, that sounds right for coastal New England.

    1. Well, I wouldn’t put “likely” there yet. The GFS has had some monumental mess ups late. Like that day after day after day after day hurricane in the Gulf that suddenly was … gone.

      2. The Canadian was in between those 2 scenarios for a couple days. Odds favor it being “somewhere between” the 50s and the 90s. 😉

    2. Do or die is only when you’re facing elimination. We’ve seen too many come-backs in all sports to ever say that a non-elimination game is do or die.

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