Quick Mobile Update

88 Comments

11:41AM

Rain showers end soon. Partly sunny PM. 50 again.

Storm Friday may start as snow especially Boston north and west before rain wins out.

Windy weekend!

More in full update this afternoon.

88 thoughts on “Quick Mobile Update”

  3. TK, when you do your update can give us an idea of wind speeds this weekend (I may be on a boating trip.) Thanks.

    1. got really dark here with rain – although my rain gauge doesn’t seem to be working 🙁 – blue sky coming in to view now from the west.

        1. no rain amount – hehehehehehe

          I fixed it – my daughter and grandson stood in the window laughing hysterically at me in the pouring rain trying to figure what was wrong…………the connection to the wireless sensor was not fully connected…………..

          The good part is that even not connected the gauge remembered the amount of water that had gone through it. We’ve had 0.15 inch of rain

  5. Interesting Special Weather Statement from NWS Upton, NY:
    PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY
    WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE SPREAD OF IGNITED BRUSH FIRES ACROSS THE
    LOCAL AREA. MOST AREAS RECEIVED LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

  7. Other interesting work going on for me this week.

    Just did see the 12z NAM/GFS both deliver 1-4″ of snow throughout SNE. Model agreement is nice…..

    I don’t buy it. An anomalously warm day followed by modeled snow. Sound familiar this winter? It should.

  10. I am not surprised the 12z GFS backed off with next Thursday’s “event”. If there is a silver lining, the models have been fairly consistent advertising storminess around the 3/1-3-2 period and possibly again in the 3/4/-3/5 period with at least some cold air nearby to work with. Something to keep our eye on.

    If we can’t manufacture any snow in that time period, I think we are going to need to depend on an anomalous late season storm in the end of March/early April to have any chance at adding anything further to our season snow total. The first two full weeks of March look to be reverting back to a very dry/mild pattern.

  11. If I just looked up (and not at the bare trees, etc)….. I’d think it’s the middle of summer. Quite dark and threatening, big raindrops falling and I’m almost half waiting for a rumble of thunder.

    1. Tom I was thinking the same thing earlier. I was on a phone conference and my room got so dark I couldn’t see. I heard something and almost thought it was thunder – although it wasn’t

  12. Wxrisk.com
    ‎* NOTIFICATION ** Good threat of a late season MAJOR SNOWSTORM for the Midwest FEB 28-29 into central and Northern New England MARCH 1. Snow amounts COULD be… could be … 12″+ from eastern NEB much of IA southern and cnetral MI southeast Ontario province of Canada much of NY state — not NYC — and much of central and Northern New England (Boston looks on the line here)

    1. That guy is just feeding his fan base some false hype. The teleconnections are all opposite of where we want them to be for an east coast snowstorm.

    2. This guy is good. He’s even got the location of the rain/snow line down to an exact science 7 days in advance of the storm.

  13. The models over the last several weeks have struggled during a time of fairly stable sun strength. Now, for the next month, closing in on the equinox……the sun is climbing 2+ degrees in the sky for every 7 days. That quick increase in solar radiation is bound to alter air masses, jet streams, tracks of lows, etc in ways the models can’t possibly project accurately.

    1. Tom, does the increase solar radiation negatively impact the accuracy of the models every year around this time?

      1. Well, I’d think if the models were to struggle…it should be from late Feb. thru early April and late August thru early October. I pick these times because that’s when the solar radiation changes are fast and furious.

        I’d think the stable times of years would be December and January, as well as late June, July and early August as then the sun remains either very weak or very strong.

        I’m not saying the pattern is stable or chaotic in those periods, but rather that at certain times of the years, at least sharp solar changes are not an issue, but now, for the next several weeks, I think it is and (I’d think) that must add more uncertainty to the outlooks.

    1. Is it the weekend of March 10, Old Salty?? I love when we turn them back in the fall but equally love when they spring forward.

  15. today partly sunny with a light breeze highs in the low 50s
    tonight becoming cloudy with lows in the low 30s rain developing changing to or mixing with snow no accumulation
    friday an icy mix of rain sleet and snow in the morning turning to lighter showers in the afternoon. hievy precipitation brings down the coolness of the high atmosphere highs in the upper 30s to low 40s
    friday night clearing out with lowps in the upper 20s
    saturday through sunday night mostly sunny highs in the low 40s lows in the low 20s
    monday through tuesday partly sunny highs in the mid 40s lows in the upper 20s and low 30s
    wednesday becoming cloudy chance of rain and snow late highs in the low 40s

  16. Burlington, VT : 41F………Watertown, NY : 38F……..Buffalo, NY : 36F and the dew points are running around 30F.

  20. I wouldn’t totally throw out the Euro. Scott’s earlier note about the lack of teleconnections being in place reminded me of a fascinating item I came across the other day. During the Superstorm of 1993 (the “storm of the century”), and the days leading right up to it, the NAO was positive, the AO was positive, and the PNA was negative. I find it unbelievable that a triple phased monster like that storm (the likes we may never see again in our lifetimes) occurred under those seemingly unfavorable conditions. If that storm (and the Halloween storm in October) are any indication, you can get a big east storm if everything comes together right. Granted it’s a heck of a lot harder w/out the right indices in place. But for that reason alone, you can’t discount the threat of a big snowstorm for someone in the northeast or interior sections next week. March is a month where you can get some big temperature contrasts setting up that can fuel sizable storms.

  22. I remember the SuperStorm quite well. It had Gulf of Mexico orgins and produced severe weather in Florida and accumulating snow Georgia and Alabama up to the Northeast. I was young at the time and the snow was up to my knee caps.
    That was the storm that got my interest in tracking snowstorms.

    1. Yes, that was a good one. It actually tracked a bit to the West of Boston, but
      held the cold air in. At my house in JP, never Rained a drop, although at the
      very end had a changeover to sleet in a heavy thunderstorm with vicious lightening. 15 inches total.

      1. I was high school during that event and living in upstate NY near Albany. We received 25″ of snow and had 4-5′ drifts. I will never forget that storm. The bulk of it happened on a Saturday and we had no school until Wednesday (which is unheard of for that area!)

    2. Me too JJ. I was young too but I remember it quite well. It wasn’t until I got a little older that I really understood and appreciated the power of weather.

  23. WunderMap for Next Thursday:

    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.32270&lon=-71.08470&zoom=4&type=terrain&units=english&rad=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=0&pix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=174&mm.opa=100&ndfd=0&fire=0&hur=0&ib=1&mits=0&dir=0

    Wundermap snow tool for height of storm: (Over 5inches in this period)
    (having trouble with link. May not work???)

    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.32270&lon=-71.08470&zoom=5&type=snow&units=english&rad=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=
    0&pix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=snow_3hr&mm.hour=156&mm.opa=100&ndfd=0&fire=0&hur=0&ib=1&mits=0&dir=0

    1. Sorry, Couldn’t get the snow map to link properly.
      It shows some 8-9 inches for the duration. Something to think about.

  24. Kind of a complex set up on the 12z EURO with a transfer of energy from the lakes to the coast. Although it has that 1030 high to the north of us.
    I’ll watch it, I’ll cross my fingers, I’ll hope.

    1. Yes, it’s a watcher. Scott, do you see the phasing I see, or am I missing something? TK indicated yesterday that there was no phasing? I wonder if that has changed??? 🙂

      1. If I’m reading the model correctly, it has the northern stream way up in Canada, and not phasing with the southern stream.
        The storm it has shown for March 3-4 is a good example of what phasing would look like.

  25. When should we get excited for next weeks possibility? Tuesday or Wednesday? Which model is more accurate at that time?

    1. haha, my sentiments exactly coastal. I was kind of hoping a big storm wouldn’t show up on the models 7 days out. That seems to be the time period where one shows up for a couple days, then goes POOF!

      1. Been on the Euro for at least 3 successive runs. Hasn’t gone poof yet. Plus many mets are already hyping it.

        1. Ok, well if the Mets are already hyping it…stick a fork in it! haha, jk. I guess I can be more optimistic about it. It def looks like it has potential 🙂

  26. Latest Boston weather! 🙂 🙂

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W
    53.0 °F
    Last Updated: Feb 23 2012, 1:54 pm EST
    Thu, 23 Feb 2012 13:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Breezy
    Temperature: 53.0 °F (11.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 35.1 °F (1.7 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 51 %
    Wind: from the West at 20.7 gusting to 27.6 MPH (18 gusting to 24 KT)
    Wind Chill: 47 F (8 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 996.1 mb
    Altimeter: 29.42 in Hg

  27. These storm chances around 3/1 and 3/4 have been fairly consistently shown on the GFS as well as the Euro. I think these are our two last ditch opportunities at something, and everything is going to have to work out just right to give us a chance at a decent snowfall. At least there is something to track, if nothing else.

    By the way, this is about the time that TK or JMA interject with a comment about how the model output doesn’t make sense and not to get our hopes up for anything next week 🙂

  33. 18z NAM = overdone.

    12z Euro = Eh. No phasing. Odds favor rain.

    12z GFS = I can see this solution verifying.

    Full update of the blog before 4:30 if all goes well in the next 1/2 hour here.

    1. What do you think TK means about the 12Z GFS? I haven’t had a chance to review the model data, but if the 12z GFS did verifty, what would that mean for Boston?

        1. So basically, TK does not see any scenerio at this time for any meaningful snow in Boston. Shocker! Hahaha, but he’s been spot on thus far.

      2. It would mean a much less potent system passing West of us as an inside runner, producing rain, except for possibly far Northern New England.

    2. TK, I know ur taking about tomorrows storm with the 18z NAM, but are you talking about next week’s storm when u refer to the 12z Euro and GFS?

      2. Yes and yes.

        I think tomorrow morning there will be some accumulation before it changes over. 1-3 inches this winter is a big deal, and that may occur in northern MA.

  34. If I’m reading the EURO correctly for March 1, the phasing takes place way too late as in east of the Maritimes. However, during the March 3rd/4th period, phasing occurs much sooner and if that solution verified, that would be the period to watch. Just trying to figure out what TK meant by the 12z GFS???

    1. I think the 12z GFS has a better overall handle on the pattern that far out. I haven’t gone with the GFS that often this winter, and against the Euro, but this is one time I feel it to be necessary, at least this far in advance, in terms of the overall pattern.

  35. Thanks for the well wishes. I feel better. I’m not sure why am not getting nailed by all these bugs that are coming through. They keep sideswiping me, taking me down for a day but no more.

    Anyway, updating now, give me a few minutes and the new blog will be up.

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