Friday May 27 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)

Memorial Day Weekend’s weather is the center piece of this 5-day discussion. This marks the “unofficial” start of the summer season, as far as tourism and vacationing goes. And for many it starts with a “getaway day” today, which is not really going to present any real weather-related challenges for our area unless you are going to be traveling during tonight. During the day we’ll just be contending with a lot of cloudiness as a warmer and more moist southerly air flow becomes established, and any precipitation will be limited to a quick sprinkle of rain mainly to the west or a patch of drizzle near the South Coast. Tonight, a surface trough will approach and then move through in the early morning hours of Saturday from west to east. While this feature will be approaching our area with a healthy batch of good coverage showers and thunderstorms, it looks like it loses a lot of support so that the activity will have diminished to scattered while it moves through the WHW forecast area and mostly gone by shortly after dawn. The next threat of showers and thunderstorms does not come until the approach and passage of a cold front later Saturday, so this leaves us with several hours especially morning and midday that are free of rain threat and may even feature some intervals of sunshine, making Saturday a non-washout and salvaging part of the day for any outdoor plans, so long as you are wise and keep an eye on the radar. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will probably be scattered as opposed to widespread, but any storms that do form and move into the area can be strong with even an isolated severe storm possible, so if you are traveling or do have outdoor plans please keep this in mind and have a plan to move to shelter if needed. The cold front pushes through by early Saturday night and sets us up for a spectacular and somewhat summery Sunday and Monday. The air won’t really be all that cool behind that “cold” front because its source region is not particularly chilly and the center of high pressure will be passing to our south, allowing a west to southwest wind to warm us up on those days. Tuesday presents the next forecast dilemma as we see that high to the south sliding further away and a bubble of high pressure in eastern Canada become stronger. Inevitably, the boundary between the two plays into our forecast as is typical for spring in New England, and we’ll be trying to determine the timing of the arrival of a back-door cold front from the northeast. This boundary has a high impact on Tuesday’s temperatures for our region. With this being day 5 right now, I’m going to play the middle ground, start us warm, then cool the region down with a PM frontal passage. If the front is sooner, we cool more quickly … later, and we keep the warmth through most of or all of the day. But for those who are taking an extra long weekend and may be returning to the area on Tuesday, the weather itself should not be an issue as again it looks like dry weather holds.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy – intervals of sun at times. A sprinkle possible southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT during the afternoon along with a potential patch of drizzle near the South Coast. Increasingly humid – dew point rising to or a little over 60. Highs 66-73 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Humid – dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows 58-65. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy but also some intervals of sunshine at times. Showers possible near dawn. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, some of which can be strong. Areas of fog early. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds break, but fog patches remain. Humidity lowers. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, but may turn much cooler from northeast to southwest by late-day. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)

Iffy temperature / weather forecast in here due to a lot of weather players on the field in close proximity. Looks like we stay on the cooler side of the aforementioned front for June 1 with dry and pleasant weather, then the boundary moves back as a warm front with a shower threat on June 2, followed by a cold front from the west with a shower/t-storm threat June 3, then fair weather for the June 4-5 weekend with high pressure in control.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and seasonable to slightly cooler than normal with predominant flow from eastern Canada at the surface.

47 thoughts on “Friday May 27 2022 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I am so happy with how the weather is working out this weekend !

    Tuesday could be fun with a big temp difference and/or change from coast to inland.

  6. Thanks TK! Last day teaching before summer break! (Don’t be too envious, east coast teachers- I start up again august 15)

    1. Congrats on the school year !

      If it were up to me, we’d have the last week of June, all of July and the first week of August as summer break.

      Then I’d take the gained 3-4 weeks and add in some breaks throughout the rest of the year.

      Instead, we have this crazy, nutty schedule where students get almost 3 months off for summer and wonder why they don’t remember half of what they learned the previous year when returning in September.

      Then, we cram 180 days into about 9 months and wonder why students are stressed and teachers are exhausted.

      Expand the 180 days out across more of the year, shorter summer break and more breaks throughout the year.

      1. Congratulations to ALL of our teachers and students for a year that was well beyond anything imagined. You are all heroes.

        Good comment. I don’t know how the August heat would impact classes then, but I do believe we spend a lot more school hours than some of the best educational systems in the world.

        I have always felt that we can learn a lot from other countries…for learning guides as well as inclusion, etc. The article is a few years old, but the philosophy remains pretty much the same

        https://www.insider.com/school-days-how-does-the-us-compare-2018-8#in-finland-children-get-a-15-minute-break-every-45-minutes-2

        1. Thanks for the article !

          Re August heat ….. of course, building maintenance and modernization needs to be spread out over time, so as not to destroy a particular year of a school budget …. but I think slowly over time, schools in the northern half of the US are being modernized to have AC. I’m assuming its part of the original design in the south to have some kind of AC.

          The pandemic pushed our district to central AC with great ventilation the upstairs of our middle school. So beats the window units which were always overcome on a warm day. Now, its nice and comfortable up here, thank goodness !! 🙂

        2. I have to disagree with “your” schedule Tom. Kids would have to start school in possible intense heat. Early-mid September can be hot enough as it is. After all, what’s wrong with 3 full months of paid vacation?

          And as for kids forgetting half of what they learned in the previous school year, that’s half (no pun intended) the fun of summer vacation! 🙂

          1. Also, many inner city schools in the northeast are not setup for typical summertime temperatures. Some are not that far away from 100 year old buildings. I know that my old junior high was built in 1933 for example.

            1. Most schools in the South, where it’s a lot hotter and much more humid, start school during the 2nd or 3rd week in August, and the school year ends in late May.

            2. You are correct, Philip. Many northern schools do not have AC as a good number of them are older. Southern schools are far more apt to have AC…also many of them do not need heat so AC makes more sense

      2. There are a few schools out here that do it like that -mostly Spanish immersion schools. I’d be fine with it. Most of our students are no longer helping out with the harvest, after all…. I don’t know if it would be the top of my priority list for fixing schools, though, which is *long*….weather out here is blisteringly hot (and these days generally smoky) through October anyway (one of the many reasons I can’t quite figure out how I ended up not living in New England)….

    1. “Here’s what you need to know.”
      That part was funny.

      Here’s what you need to know.
      Fog is a stratus cloud at ground level as a result of equal temperature and dew point. It can drastically reduce visibility. Use caution when traveling. That’s about it! 😉

  9. Thanks TK.

    Memorial Day 2022 will likely be remembered as quite a HOT one, much like a typical 4th of July.

    1. 80s .. low humidity.
      Probably not going to be memorable as far as heat goes. But maybe very nice weather memories. 🙂

  12. Lots if model discrepancy for Saturday temperatures,

    GFS and HRRR have Upper 60s to around 70 while 3KM NAM
    has near 80. Go Figure. What’s up with that????

    1. Beautifully fascinating. Thanks for the pics.

      And I might have chuckled a bit at your “slight”. Although starting in mid CT…maybe slight isn’t as much an understatement as it appears. And seeing that view added to Bar Harbor is perfect

      1. Lol, it is literally as long a drive from here to bar harbor as it is from home but it was worth it!

        2. I wondered about that. It sure was a perfect stop on your way to Bar Harbor…..to a born and raised Bostonian. 😉

  15. 79 muggy degrees with a 65 DP here. Lots of clouds building from the west, but I don’t see anything on radar.

    1. Too stable today for anything really. Tonight we get some weakening stuff coming through.

      “All systems fail in a drought.” -Barry Burbank

      2. I was keeping an eye on your forecast so knew tonight. I of course meant nothing in the immediate area. Since then there are storms to the SW.

      1. Hmmm. I was thinking there was a nice kick up of snow in first photo.

        Awesome Mark. I know my dad is smiling Down at Memorial Day skiing.

    1. I remember when the leaves were “backward” or “turn over” my brother used to tell me that meant rain was coming.

      The folklore (and somewhat true) makes sense because leaves supposedly grow to be upturned in the most prevailing wind, so when you had a wind from a different direction that often accompanied the approach of storms, they’d show their other sides and signal “rain”.

  20. This is the worst bullpen I have ever seen on any team. That’s not hyperbole. This bullpen is truly awful. It’s hard to give up 10 runs to the lowly Orioles in 2 plus innings and blowing an 8-2 lead.

    The Celtics aren’t exactly thrilling their fans, either. I must say, the overconfidence with which people asserted that the Celtics would definitely win tonight. Puzzling. I don’t think of this particular Celtics team as being great. I think of them the way I do the Utah Jazz in the 1980s; a very good team, but always coming up well short – not championship or even finals material. Also, Butler is REALLY good in clutch moments. Tatum, not so much. Tatum is a better overall player, but in a game like tonight or Game 7 on Sunday I’d put money on Butler.

  21. CPC changed tune on Friday’s 6-10 temp forecast (near normal), and 8-14 temp forecast (below normal).

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