Saturday May 28 2022 Forecast (8:38AM)

33 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28- JUNE 1)

The Memorial Day Weekend has arrived and there are no surprises to report today since the outlook posted yesterday. We have our unsettled day today as we sit in a mild and muggy air mass ahead of a cold front, which will pass by this evening. One round of showers and embedded thunderstorms crosses parts of the region in the pre-dawn hours. The next round of activity will be triggered by the approach and arrival of the cold front this afternoon and evening. The strength of any storms will be determined by how much clearing can take place to destabilize the atmosphere, and right now it looks like that clearing may be limited, with the most sunshine taking place well north and west of Boston. That factor, along with the limiting factor of ocean influence from a south southwest wind in eastern MA, eastern CT, and RI, even southeastern NH, will limit the chance of any stronger storms getting into the majority of the WHW forecast area. However, since there are many outdoor activities planned and ongoing today as part of the holiday weekend, it’s essential to keep a close eye on the evolution of any showers and storms from afternoon to evening. Once that front goes by the region, any lingering activity will move out and/or dissipate and we’ll transition to a drier air mass overnight. High pressure settles in, its center to the southwest and south of our region, to give us a fair and warm Sunday and Monday, salvaging most of the weekend with great conditions for any outdoor activity. Monday will end up the warmest day. Tuesday will be an interesting day regarding the temperature, as this depends on the timing of a back-door cold front that will be coming down from via the Gulf of Maine. Currently, I favor timing that allows us to quickly warm up in the morning, followed by a big cool-down in southeastern NH and eastern MA during the day, spreading further south and west later in the day and at night, with the marine air mass over the entire region when we get to Wednesday, the first day of June and meteorological summer. I don’t think any rainfall will accompany the back-door front, just some clouds, which may hang around at times into Wednesday, although the air will be dry enough to allow sunshine too.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy but also some intervals of sunshine at times. Scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Any storms could be strong, especially southern NH and central to northeastern MA. Highs 71-78, coolest South Coast. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouds break. Evening fog patches. Humidity lowers. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-79 coast, 80-85 inland. Wind NW under 10 MPH early, becoming variable, then SE up to 10 MPH especially coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 79-84 coast, 85-90 inland. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, but turning much cooler from northeast to southwest starting midday or afternoon. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-74, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)

Wave of low pressure passing northwest of the region brings the boundary that went by previously back as a warm front with clouds/showers June 2. Difficult timing but cold front swings through with a shower/t-storm threat June 3 when it may be briefly warm and humid. Cooler thereafter with a Canadian air mass arriving. Warm air trying to make a comeback may increase the cloud cover later in the period but overall pattern is still dry.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and seasonable to slightly cooler than normal with predominant flow from eastern Canada at the surface.

33 thoughts on “Saturday May 28 2022 Forecast (8:38AM)”

    1. This time I agree with one of their outlooks. I haven’t agreed with them all that often lately.

      My colleague and I were discussing (just this morning) how sometimes a forecaster without any experience in this part of the country can forecast it to be too warm based on the upper air pattern, but not take into account what can happen at the surface. That type of thing takes longer to learn if you are not actually here experiencing it.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    Seems the HRRR has more shower and T-storm activity for Eastern MA than the other models. We shall see. Not sure I buy that.

    2. Definitely feel good about my “mostly cloudy” choice over “partly sunny”.

  12. On a upbeat note, Nolan Gorman has had a double, single and home run today. I sure wish he’d come to Boston. He is playing here on my birthday 🙂

  15. We had a few drops of rain and a little wind. Nothing happening now. No thunder that I can hear. 🙂 Rain is very near.

    1. The lightning plot says you have had audible thunder by now. 🙂

      So far the activity is behaving pretty much as expected.

      1. One quiet clap of thunder here. No lightning warning so maybe cloud to cloud. Maybe rain on the way but line seems to be weakening

        1. No ground plot in that area now so most likely cloud-to-cloud. We had several of those up here, some were pretty loud. A few CGs occurred to my southwest and south, but mostly hidden by rain., then a few to the east as it pulled away. There was much more activity to my north but I couldn’t see the bolts from here – only hear the thunder in the distance, but I didn’t drive for that activity as I’d have been getting to it too late as it was shifting coastward rather quickly, and I’d also be running into the “coming back from the beach” crowd on the roads. Not that it was a great beach day, but still a fair amount of people made the venture to “get their feet wet”, so to speak. 😉

      2. Nope. I have been listening for it. Had all the windows open until the heavens opened up. 🙂

  17. Gorman is first player in cardinal history to go four for four in first four games. I’m going to have to take a trip to the safe deposit box and just smile at the rookie cards I have in there 🙂

  19. It’s been a great 4 days off celebrating my sons HS graduation as some of you saw on Facebook. It’s been a bittersweet celebration & also emotional. The weather these 4 days has been excellent. Back to work tomorrow & my first holiday Monday , sucks about Monday but it’s double time & half so I’ll take it. Happy Memorial Day weekend everyone.

    1. Oh my SSK. I cannot believe your son who was just 13 what seemed like yesterday has graduated from high school. I wish him the best of the best

      1. Indeed Vicki . He’s 18 now & needs to start finding his way . It really was a moving celebration & I wish I had a couple more days off but the big promotion has me working Sundays & any holidays that fall on my schedule Sunday – Thursday. It’s all good .

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