Saturday June 4 2022 Forecast (9:05AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)

The first weekend of June, keeping in mind that while we call this meteorological summer that it is still spring, behaves like late spring. Starting out today we have a considerable covering of stratus clouds, but with little more to feed it and high-angle sun to work on it, we’ll see it dissipate by midday. The June sun will then work on what little moisture is near ground level to help raise some thermals and pop some diurnal cumulus clouds this afternoon, making for a sun/cloud mix. Later in the day, a cold front coming along from the west may trigger some taller clouds, enough to produce a shower (maybe even brief downpour) for some areas, but coverage on these looks low, with best chance of occurrence north of I-90, so while these will not be beneficial in terms of our rainfall deficit, they will also not be overly-interrupting of outdoor plans, maybe just causing brief delays of activities here and there. Tonight, the front pushes eastward, offshore, and we experience a clear and dry night, a bit cool too. Sunday, high pressure brings us a top 10 “chamber of commerce” style day, with lots of sunshine, low humidity, and mild air. For people desiring the beach or lake for swimming, it will be a little cooler than most would like, but no surprise for early June. Still a very nice day for outdoor activities! The high pressure area will slide off to the east but retain control of our weather Monday – another nice day – before giving it up Tuesday as an approaching trough from the west sends a frontal system our way, increasing the cloudiness and eventually bringing a chance of showers, which as it looks now will hang around into Wednesday as the front slows down while moving through. I must also mention that a tropical low (not strong enough to be a tropical storm as of yet) is moving northeastward across South Florida today, bringing heavy rain and areas of flooding there, and this system, likely to get a name (Alex) as it heads offshore, remains well south of New England into early next week on its ocean journey, but may eventually kick up our ocean swells but most likely not until Monday. But our water “hazard” this weekend will be that the water temps are still a bit too chilly for safe swimming, so keep that in mind if you do have “in-water” plans.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then a sun/cloud mix. A late-day shower possible, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 71-78, coolest along the coast. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches interior low-lying spots. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH but some light coastal sea breezes midday-afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, especially later in the day. Highs 73-80, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 57-64. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the morning. Highs 72-79. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 9-13)

The aforementioned trough will still be to our west for a good part of this period of time, and this gives us an opportunity for a couple additional episodes of unsettled weather. With a weekend (June 11-12) in there there will be plenty of scrutiny on the details for the weather, but as you know it’s a bit early to be confident of day-to-day details, so there will be fine-tuning to come. For now, I’ll lean toward early June 9 and late June 10 to early June 11 as having the slightly higher probabilities of seeing any wet weather. Temperatures for this period will average near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)

Continued generally weak westerly flow pattern with mean trough position not too far to our west which sends a few disturbances through the region with shower threats, but mostly minor systems and limited rain threats. Early hints that the pattern wants to shift a little later in the period to put more ridge near the East Coast, but this will probably take place later than current mid range projections indicate, so will hold back on going for this. Temperatures slightly below to near normal.

40 thoughts on “Saturday June 4 2022 Forecast (9:05AM)”

  2. Thanks Tk . Working a detail at the Hospital & it’s chilly in the city this morning .

    1. Once that June sun shines down it’ll be warmer, but then a sea breeze will keep it in check in the city again.

      We’re running behind normal on “heat” this year. All the warm milestones were later than their average dates, and there is really no hot weather in sight. The heat burst in May, while not unusual at all, was fleeting.

      1. Happy it’s not overly hot for graduations yesterday and today.

        Just hoping we avoid a mid afternoon pop up shower on that dew point convergence area in eastern Mass

      2. I just hope it’s a warm summer . Judah says hotter then normal I believe I saw , would work for me .

          1. Having said that, he actually was just about “spot on” this past winter. His prediction of snowfall for Boston was 50 inches (actual = 54.0”). Can’t do much better than that for months in advance.

            1. If you verify his forecasts, not a stellar record, but this past winter, he got right for snow. 🙂 Ironically that’s the hardest thing to predict. There’s an element of luck to it, because we all know that 1 or 2 renegade systems outside of the predominant pattern can make or break a precipitation forecast.

                1. Don’t get me wrong though. He’s a brilliant scientist. A very smart guy who knows his stuff. So was my senior college professor, but his teaching – ugh. HAHAHA…

                2. I do wonder now that Harvey has retired if Judah will still give his predictions on air during the Ch. 5 newscasts. Was it only because Harvey personally invited him?

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Waiting on that sun! Seems to be trying to poke through now.

    63 here.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Sun is out now here. Today could be at least a “Top-15” day if no showers develop later this afternoon.

        1. Very often it is the “under the radar” systems (did I really just say that?) that can cause some significant issues. Some of our larger flooding events have come from tropical depressions. Having a named system is exciting for media for glamour purposes, but we know how that works. We still have to pay attention to the actual weather, no matter what it’s called. 🙂

          1. Absolutely. My FILs comment came from watching people before and after Hugo discount anything less than a declared hurricane. And that was before social media

  8. We’ll need to keep an eye on next Wed/Thurs time frame for trends next 48-72 hrs

    Possible strengthening short wave, deepening surface low.

    Have to watch where warm sector, warm front and highest dew-points would set up for possible severe wx (ie warm front “spin-ups”) in southern New England

  9. I was about to say that I think maybe the GFS is coming out of its slump, until I looked at today’s 12z op, and it makes me wonder if that was just temporary. Too many things look a little different compared to the last several runs. Not trusting it that much yet.

  10. I have to admit sometimes it’s fun to just be a regular blogger instead of the admin. 😉 But I guess I should fix the login and get back to the other account………………….

      1. He probably portrays the best online version of my actual real-life self, since I’ve been using that nickname for on-air (CB radio) and online stuff since I was a kid. 😉

  11. Back to the WHW account. Boorrrriingggg. 😉 j/k

    Philip.. My guess regarding Judah is that you’ll not only see him continue to give his long range forecasts, but he will do so with Harvey present, since Harvey is 99% retired and 1% still working for the station. 🙂 This will be the exact kind of thing we’ll still see him doing, and he indicated he would be around for. Special reports, severe weather, winter storms, when he can of course.

    1. Or the remnants of. They don’t use the Pacific name in the Atlantic. It was an unnamed system when it went through there. Loads of moisture though.

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