Tuesday June 7 2022 Forecast (7:47AM)

35 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

High pressure slides offshore today and much of the day will be fairly nice, a bit warmer (still coolest coast) and rain-free, even though clouds will be on the increase as the day goes on, ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. This front brings showers tonight and Wednesday morning. An additional shower or t-storm may pop up around midday as the actual frontal boundary comes through the region, then we get a dry interlude, but we don’t completely clear out as the front doesn’t really get far and a wave of low pressure approaches from the southwest. This low pressure wave will bring us a period of widespread showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning, helping to cut into our nearly 5-inch rainfall deficit for the year-so-far. Improvement comes later Thursday as the low moves away, and high pressure builds in with nice weather for Friday and into Saturday. Leaning toward an upcoming storm threat for the weekend being weaker and further south than modeled, so for now I have dry through Saturday…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers by evening, favoring eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 74-81, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 56-63. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely through mid morning. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm midday. Highs 73-80. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely, especially late evening and overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

If my idea about the weekend system is right, we may see dry weather Sunday June 12 with only a fleeting chance of rain near the South Coast. Upper level low pressure in the region early next week may kick off some diurnal isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms June 13 and/or 14. Fair weather follows as that low moves away and weak high pressure dominates later in the period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

Continuing the idea of a weak westerly flow but mean trough position to our west by a short distance, sending minor disturbances and a couple shower chances. Temperatures mostly near normal though a bit variable – no extremes expected.

35 thoughts on “Tuesday June 7 2022 Forecast (7:47AM)”

  6. Thanks TK.

    From what I could tell, the tv mets have it pretty much “wet” for the weekend. I remember Barry used to always say (on air) “Everything fails in a drought”.

    Ideally it would be nice to have the beneficial rains fall only overnights and allow daytimes to remain dry.

    3. Ideal for you, as someone that normally drives home from work in the middle of the night, that’s not ideal for me.

    4. Philip, Not that we have any control …..but that makes sense on a practical level. With the moderate drought conditions, I was also thinking overnight would be most beneficial. Our lawn and many around are straw.

  8. It’s been a very snowy start to the season down under – Hotham ski resort, Australia. You may recall that last year was rather pitiful in terms of snowfall. Not this year. There’s plenty already with more to come. https://www.mthotham.com.au/

  9. Quick PM thoughts…

    No real differences in the thinking from this morning TBH.

    Showers tonight / Wednesday morning. May be an additional shower or t-storm from west to east late morning / midday Wednesday.

    Low pressure wave brings a slug of numerous to widespread showers and maybe even a general rain area Wednesday night but I favor a faster exit on Thursday and a nice afternoon that day.

    I continue to disagree with everybody else about the weekend. But the models… I know, I know. In the words of the very interesting Bruce Schwoegler (former WBZ-TV met / broadcaster), regarding the weekend washy-outy threat. “I don’t buy it. I just don’t buy it!” And in the words of JP Dave: “We shall see.” 🙂

      1. I only saw Eric he seemed very skeptical as well this evening.

        I figured yesterday morning that the guidance trend would be drier. So far, that’s indeed the trend. We’ll see if it continues that way.

  10. Not that I have much trust in the GFS yet, but FWIW, the 18z operational run has a grand total rainfall of 0.00 for Boston for Saturday.

    1. The Danish philosopher Søren Kierkegaard wrote entire treatises devoted to nothingness. I think 0.00 qualifies.

  11. TK mentioned Bruce Schwoegler. I loved seeing Schwoegler’s forecasts. See link below. This is from October 3rd, 1995. I remember the day well. It was Yom Kippur, so I was at services at Brandeis with my father. Also, the Red Sox lost Game 1 of their series against the Indians (they were swept by the Indians). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAzQtYrwEwg

    1. Bruce and I were waiting at NWH fit a CT way back when.

      If I’m not mistaken, 1995 was the year the head if the Charles was cancelled. My oldest was in Maine with a friend and Mac and I were on pony duty to make sure both ponies were turned out and not stuck in their stalls. Not an east fest that weekend

  12. Thanks, TK.

    We will be in New Jersey during the day on Saturday, so it sounds as though we might see the rain there…

  14. I’m home after a week at daughters bunny sitting while they were at Disney. I love sitting out on the deck when wind is evidence.

    Tom, youngest and family went to Humarock. They said the wind was crazy.

      1. Hahaha. No. Turns out they have a very sensitive stomach. Granddaughters was easy. The one they are fostering is a piece of work. Took me about 30 minutes to get her out from behind the washer dryer. And then another 30 to barricade it because she wanted to “play the where am I” game all over again

    2. On really hot days in summer, I will walk at dusk near the lovely Church of the Advent (Brimmer Street) and look at the bunnies hopping around on the grass; the church garden. I always tell them “you chose the right time to be out and about on this hot day.”

      1. I love watching our wild bunnies. We have one with one ear back from last year. I named him Peter. And the other two who chase each other endlessly I named floppy and …I’ll let you guess

        Even domesticated bunnies are more active at night. In the dark, the hawks cannot see them

    3. Speaking of, there is a bunny sitting in my front yard, just sitting there, resting. 😉

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